NFL Week 7 Picks ATS (2024)
Week 7 spread and total picks for every NFL game, with a few prop bets along the way
After Week 3, I was 32-15-1 betting NFL totals, prompting me to write the following in my Week 4 picks column
“I fully expect the next three weeks to culminate in a 15-32-1 record on totals, but this is the NFL, baby! The rollercoaster and unpredictability is why it hurts so good!”
-RS
In my haste, I of course didn’t realize that BYE weeks wouldn’t allow this kind of summary, but regression to the 50% mark definitely came hard and fast, with my NFL totals picks going 19-25 in Weeks 4-6 (43.2%). Now 43.2% certainly isn’t the inverse of my Weeks 1-3 68.1% hit rate, but as offenses found their grove, market-makers got smarter, and I filled my head with helium, we fell off quite a bit, now sitting at a still very respectable 56.0% hit rate on totals. The NFL gods will get you one way or another, regardless of whether you talk about your success or keep it to yourself.
On the note of success though, the public had itself a fucking day last NFL Sunday, with road favorites going 8-0 (!!) and the top 6 most public ATS bets all cashing, much to the chagrin of MGM, whose ticket volume stats are below:
81% Steelers -3 ✅
81% Lions -3 ✅
75% Falcons -6 ✅
73% Bengals -4.5 ✅
72% Bucs -3.5 ✅
64% Texans -6.5 ✅
What did your dear friend, Ryan “Peligro” Steinberg do on Sunday ATS? Well, he liked the Panthers +6 and the Drake Maye-led Pats getting +6.5, both at home. Can’t hate an 8-6 week betting the NFL ATS, but still… never feels good to see the general public do better than me, the guy who is doing 30-40 hours of All-22 and number crunching each week to make his picks.
It wasn’t all mediocre news though, as, coming out with my most props and ⭐️ bet-heavy column of the season, I went 16.5-8 (+10.06 units) on props and an absolutely ludicrous 14-3 on my ⭐️ bets last week, all culminating in my 2nd most profitable NFL Sunday ever. That feels good, and feels particularly good when the two games you spent the most time researching, putting bets down on, and gave a specific gameplan prediction for - Commies-Ravens, Lions-Cowboys - were your biggest winners.
But enough waxing poetic about last week’s successes: let’s talk about Week 7!
Ya so unfortunately I, noted “huge NBA fan” and dumbass, thought the NBA season kicked off on this upcoming Thursday, but nope… starts on Tuesday. So this will be a very simple and curt Week 7 writeup, as I am currently scrambling to meet my new all 30 teams, NBA Preview deadline on Tuesday afternoon - wish me luck!
Betting Record:
Last Week:
Against the Spread: 8-6
Totals: 5-9 (35.7%)
Prop Bets: 16.5-8 (+10.06)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 14-3 (82.4%)
Overall Record:
Against the Spread: 42-45-5 (48.3%)
Totals: 51-40-1 (56.0%)
Prop Bets: 40.5-35 (+10.11 units)
Starred Bets: 47-29 (61.8%)
Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints
The Saints, continuing to rack up injuries, may finally have to face their cap sheet mortality this summer, after putting off the inevitable for nearly 5 years. Amazing run, but this offense is now injured beyond recognition and the defense, after so many years defying the odds, finally looks like the old + slow collection of guys they actually are.
The picks: Broncos -3, Over 37.5
Prop Bet(s): ⭐️ Bo Nix over 24.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐️
New England Patriots at Jacksonville (London) Jaguars
Between my pre-NFL Draft “all in” move on Drake Maye and owning Maye in a keeper league, I was very excited to watch how he performed vs the pressure-generating monsters on the Texans OL. Both Hunter and Anderson ate vs this shit-stained, ragtag OL Patriots offensive line, but this was about as good of a start as I could’ve expected from Maye.
I’ll definitely do a deeper analysis of his play over the next couple weeks, but wanted to point out one play that really stood out to me from Maye in the 4th quarter.
It’s a pretty simple 12-15 yard out route completion from Kayshon Boutte, but what impressed me about Maye was how he used his eyes to ensure that the passing lane would be open. Houston looks to be in some kinda Cover 3 Buzz formation, where the CB at the bottom, the very very good Derek Stingley Jr (#24), is there to defend the flat on his third of the field, and he would’ve been in perfect position to breakup the pass had Maye not given that very very slight look + pump over to TE Hunter Henry (#85) swinging out after chipping the DE. That slight hesitation was enough to keep Stingley down and gave Drake enough of a window to complete the pass outside to Boutte. It’s a small thing, borderline insignificant, but shows a deeper understanding of how Maye will need to manipulate defenses with his eyes if he wishes to be successful in the pros, as this kind of nuance didn’t come in droves back at UNC.
The Texans still whooped the Patriots’ ass, but that moment, particularly after watching the All-22, gave me some real optimism about what the future holds for Maye.
As for this Pats-Jags game, I will be sleeping in. All I know for certain is that you probably won’t regret getting a couple extra hours of shuteye before the excellent 1pm EST slate of games, this game is going to have some points, and that the TEs will likely lead the way for both clubs.
The picks: Patriots +7, ⭐️ Over 42.5 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): Alt over 46.5 (+148), Evan Engram over 4.5 receptions (-138), ⭐️ Hunter Henry over 29.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️, 0.5u Henry 40+ receiving (+158), Drake Maye over 1.5 passing TDs (+255)
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons will be without LB Troy Andersen for the third straight week, while LB Lorenzo Carter is now on IR, and the madman S Justin Simmons is very questionable with a hamstring injury. The Seahawks are still recovering from the injuries that’ve plagued them the last three weeks (and losses), with their secondary now reeling after ruling out Riq Woolen, Tre Brown, and Artie Burns. Oh and Kenneth Walker Jr is now randomly questionable with an illness… not great guys!
All that to say, these defenses are beat up and Atlanta still can’t get consistent pressure on the QB, so we love the over and for Geno to sling the ball all game.
Feels like a 3pt game to me.
The picks: Seahawks +3, Over 51.5
Prop Bet(s): ⭐️ Geno Smith over 36.5 pass attempts (-112) ⭐️, Geno Smith over 11.5 rushing yards (-110)
Not sure what’s gotten into the guy, but Geno Smith has been running his ass off to start this season, popping off for 72 yards on 4 rushes vs the Giants two weeks ago
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
Will Levis has been benched for Week 7 - good luck making your weekly meme from there, pal! - in favor of Mason Rudolph. Mason certainly isn’t what I would call “good” at playing QB, but he has a shockingly effective record in his first replacement starts:
2023, Week 16 vs Bengals: 17/27, 290 passing, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 1 Sack
2021, Week 10 vs Detroit: 30/50, 242 passing, 1 TD, 1 INT, 0 Sacks
2019, Week 3 vs 49ers: 14/27, 174 passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 2 Sacks
Do I think the Titans win this game? Probably not, although they certainly have a defense good enough to slow down the Bills, and the bodies up front to abuse the very light front 7 of the Bills. Tajae Spears may be out, but Tony Pollard has been excellent running the ball thus far, and will have plenty of opportunities.
The picks: Titans +9, Over 41
Prop Bet(s): a shockingly large amount…
⭐️ Tony Pollard longest rush over 15.5 (-112) ⭐️
⭐️ Pollard rush attempts over 16.5 (-112) ⭐️
Pollard over 67.5 rushing yards (-112)
Pollard over 95.5 rush + receiving yards (-112)
James Cook over 15.5 receiving yards (-110)
⭐️ Khalil Shakir over 34.5 receiving yards (-112) ⭐️
Shakir 40+ receiving (+114)
0.5u Shakir 50+ receiving (+182)
Shakir over 5.5 1Q receiving yards (-104)
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Excuse the vomit on my keyboard - we’re backing the Browns again.
The picks: Browns +5.5, Over 41.5
Prop Bet(s): Alt under 38.5 (+144), Alt over 46.5 (+166), 0.5u alt over 49.5 (+240), David Njoku over 42.5 receiving yards (-114)
Could see this game being an absolute slug fest or Deshaun finding some magic vs this horrible Bengals D / Jameis finally coming in to save the day and this total going way over. So we’re going to bet on variance and bet both directions. Cooper is gone though, so this as good a time as ever to back Njoku, particularly if Winston does step in to chuck it downfield
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
What an awesome game. Didn’t have the time to watch a ton of film for this one unfortunately, but the Packers appear to be finding their groove, the Texans are missing Nico Collins, and both teams start from a foundation of running the ball. Mixon could dominate if game script allows.
The picks: Packers -2.5, Over 48.5
Prop(s): Jordan Love over 8.5 rushing yards (-110), ⭐️ Joe Mixon over 15.5 rushing attempts (-106) ⭐️, ⭐️ Mixon over 64.5 rushing yards (-108) ⭐️, 0.5u Mixon 80+ rushing yards (+174)
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Your guess is as good as mine. Anthony Richardson still sucks but so does this Miami team 🤷♂️
The picks: Dolphins +3, Under 44
Prop(s): De’Von Achane longest rush over 14.5 (-108)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Well, despite the win vs the lowly Jets two weeks ago, the old / true Sam Darnold did start to show up. Will we finally get a full Darnold collapse this week? Not sure.
What I am sure of is this: the Lions have only faced Cover 2 on 9% of their dropbacks, the #2 lowest rate in the league. The Vikings play Cover 2 at the 3rd highest rate (24% of dropbacks). On the rare occasions when the Lions did see Cover 2, Jameson Williams has been the primary recipient. It’s his week.
The picks: Lions +1.5, Under 50.5
Prop(s): ⭐️ Jameson Williams longest reception over 22.5 yards (-112) ⭐️, ⭐️ Williams over 49.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️, Wiliams 60+ receiving (+138), 0.5u Williams 70+ receiving (+196), 0.5u Williams 80+ receiving (+280)
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Got nothing for y’all here. Going with my gut and backing the Eagles but why on earth is this line only Eagles -3?!
The picks: Eagles -3, Over 42.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams
Even with Kupp returning and Antonio Pierce still coaching this team, there is no reason why this game should have the Rams laying a TD.
The picks: Raiders +7, Over 43
Prop(s): ⭐️ Brock Bowers over 5.5 receptions (-135) ⭐️, Bowers 7+ receptions (+120)
Another week, another Sunday where Brock Bowers is catching 7+ balls
Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders
The Commanders are laying 9.5 points to the Panthers?! I mean, I know Carolina sucks but jesus, that’s just so, so many points to be giving to a team that can effectively run the ball and protect their QB at a high rate.
The picks: Panthers +9.5, Over 51.5
Prop(s): ⭐️ Chubba Hubbard longest rush over 15.5 (-118) ⭐️, ⭐️ Zach Ertz over 29.5 receiving (-110) ⭐️, Ertz 40+ receiving (+170)
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
Hell ya, love me a Super Bowl rematch. I have no idea who wins this game, but I do have some interesting insights from the film study I did for this game.
The Chiefs defense has been excellent this year, effectively shutting down pretty much every combination of run + pass teams have thrown at them through a 5-0 start. Thinking about defensive game plans, I think the Chiefs coaching staff is likely to throw Trent McDuffie at Aiyuk to basically remove him from the game. He’s good enough to make a couple plays, but I have a really hard time seeing Aiyuk making a big contribution outside of his elite run blocking.
But there is one area of the field that the Chiefs haven’t been able to defend very well for over a year now, as that’s in the middle of the field within 10 yards of the LoS. This is what the Chiefs’ passing defense heat map looked like last year, with green meaning offensive production. It’s about the same this year by my account.
If the 49ers were healthy, this would be a smash spot for CMC over on catches, coming out the backfield and spamming Texas and stab routes to hit that short, middle of the field. But he’s not available, so we gotta look at charting from this year to figure out who - spoiler: it hasn’t been RB Jordan Mason - is going to be settling into that part of the field.
It’s not Brandon Aiyuk, his chart clearly shows that’s not his game
It’s not the perfect-fit Jauan Jennings because he’s not playing Sunday.
So who is it? It has to be Deebo.
So with all that, I have no idea who wins this game or how effective each team will be at scoring the ball, but I am very confident that this looks like a Deebo Samuel smash spot
The picks: 49ers -1.5, Under 47.5
Prop Bet(s): a lot…
⭐️ Deebo Samuel over 4.5 receptions (-108) ⭐️
Samuel 6+ receptions (+172)
0.5u Samuel 7+ receptions (+290)
Samuel over 12.5 rushing yards (-108)
⭐️ Patrick Mahomes over 4.5 rushing attempts (-114) ⭐️
⭐️ Mahomes over 19.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐️
Mahomes 25+ rushing (+144)
0.25u Mahomes 40+ rushing (+470)
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cut for time (and disgust) 🤷♂️
The picks: Steelers +2, Over 38.5
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Excited for this one 🤷♂️
The picks: Bucs +3.5, Over 49.5
Prop Bet(s): Justice Hill over 15.5 receiving yards (-110), Cade Otton over 35.5 receiving yards (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals
Good luck picking this game - goddamn are the Cardinals inconsistent!