NFL Week 4 Picks ATS (2024)

Week 4 spread and total picks for every NFL game, with a few prop bets along the way

Sep 29, 2024

It’s about to be crunch time for your dear friend Ryan Danger Steinberg - yes that’s my middle name, for those of you that are new here - with the NBA kicking off in ~3 weeks and 12,000 words of team by team previews waiting to spill out of my bleeding fingers. So apologies for those of you expecting another 500 word intro - there will be no Buffalo Wild Wings or domestic abuse jokes this week 😢

What we do have to do is celebrate, well, me of course! Through three weeks, I’ve been absolutely white hot betting NFL totals, with a scorching 32-15-1 record, good for what I think is a profitable 68.1% hit rate, but someone check my numbers. I can hear the concern from my adoring fans now….

“But Ryan, aren’t you afraid that your cocky musing about your picks will anger the football gods, smiting you down with a far worse three week stretch than you could ever imagine?”

-My adoring fans

The answer, of course, is yes! I fully expect the next three weeks to culminate in a 15-32-1 record on totals, but this is the NFL, baby! The rollercoaster and unpredictability is why it hurts so good! You ever tried to explain why you play fantasy football to someone that doesn’t without making a plea to “staying connected with my boys”? Nearly impossible: “Oh ya, your 1st round pick has a good chance of having a season ending injury in Week 1, but at least that’s better than a guy getting injured in the middle of the game!”. This shit is totally random, violent, non-sensical fun, and that’s why we love it!

So for now, we’ll spend the time celebrating the wins we have in our small, three week sample size, and live with the wrath of the gods, whenever it may come 😊

(Don’t look at my record ATS, it’s not important right now)

Betting Record:

Against the Spread: 21-25-2 (45.7%)

Totals: 32-15-1 (68.1%)

Prop Bets: 6-10.5 (-4.8 units)

Starred Bets: 14-9 (60.9%)

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Another week, another TNF game I can’t believe didn’t go over. Daniel Jones: not great at throwing down the field! Apologies to anyone that got a late, bad number on this one, but Vegas used one of their three season-long lifelines to destroy the 82% of the public that was on the Cowboys spread. Happy with a push.

The picks: Cowboys -5, Over 45

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson has been as bad as I expected pre-season, completing only 49.3% of his passes (the only QB below 50%!) and doing it dangerously, proudly having the #1 aDOT (12.6 yards down the field), the 32nd ranked Accurate Pass % (47%), and the worst Turnover-Worthy Play rate (8.2%) in the league. All of this, mind you, with Richardson playing behind PFF’s #1 offensive line through three weeks, a unit that only gave up four pressures last week (one sack, one quarterback hit, two hurries).

This will be Richardson’s 8th NFL start on Sunday so he still has time to make a Josh Allen-like turnaround - lol, not happening - but (1) hahaha that’s not happening, are you serious, this guy sucks! and (2) unfortunately, he has to go against Mike Tomlin this week, a man who is 42-14 (75%) vs QBs within their first 10 career starts.

Here’s another Tomlin stats dump for ya: In both Week 1 and Week 2, I wrote about Mike Tomlin’s impeccable road under record as a head coach, and with unders in both those games, the trend continued: On the road, Mike Tomlin is 82-56-1 (59%) to the under, with a ridiculous 23-4 (85%) record over his last 27 road games. He’s equally good as a road dog, going 41-28-1 (59%) ATS during his Steelers tenure.

What isn’t as stellar is Tomlin’s record as a road favorite, going 33-40-2 (45%), which brings us to Sunday’s game on the road in Indy. The Colts defense has been bad and particularly bad against the run. Even with a putrid 63 rushing yard performance out of the Bears in Week 3, the Colts are still bottom of the league, giving up 179 rushing yards per game despite ranking #18 in opponent Yards per Carry (4.4 YPC). Teams are running the ball early and often vs the Colts, and winning their games.

So was the Week 3 improvement real or is Shane Waldron the worst and the Steelers are about to run the ball 40+ times, throwing in an explosive Fields → Pickens connection once a quarter and a few Pat Freiermuth seam balls just for shits and giggles? I’m going with the latter, but will be ignoring the trend on Tomlin road unders. Just have a feeling that the Steelers put up points here and Anthony Richardson, although still bad, connects on one or two long balls to bring this over the total of 40.

The picks: Steelers -2, Over 40

Prop Bet(s): George Pickens over 52.5 receiving yards (-112), ⭐️ Pat Freiermuth 40+ receiving (+180) ⭐️

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Picking this game with not a whole lot of confidence…

My inclination, as it was in Week 1, is the take the points in any NFC South division matchup, but I’m a bit spooked by the Saints OL injuries, with C Erik McCoy now on IR and RG Cesar Ruiz questionable for the game. The Saints OL was playing as the best all around unit in the league through two weeks, but in-game injuries and the Eagles’ Jalen Carter had them playing like the bottom 5 unit they were projected to be preseason. That combo plus injuries to RB Alvin Kamara and a Friday practice hamstring injury for WR Chris Olave outweighs wildcard TE Taysom Hill returning after a one game absence.

With those OL injuries in mind, there is good news, as the Saints are playing the Falcons, aka the worst team at pressuring the QB in the NFL, although some of that may have been intentional: in watching the Falcons tape from the last three weeks, it stood out how few pure pass rush snaps OLB Matthew Judon had facing the scrambling trio of Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes. Perhaps the Falcons front seven finds some more success this week facing the not so scrambling Derek Carr.

Turning to the Falcons, they’re also struggling with OL injuries, with C Drew Dalman on IR and RT Kaleb McGary out this Sunday, the latter being replaced by Storm Norton, a former Charger that I can definitively say is not good. More importantly though, they’re also struggling with the budding insight that 2nd time HC Raheem Morris may cost them a game with his decision making after their new HC played the fool, racing Chief’s HC Andy Reid to call a timeout in the last minute of their SNF bout.

All of that to say: 🤷

The picks: Saints +3, Over 41

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Well folks, it feels like the Doug Pederson era in Jacksonville may be drawing to a close. With divisional games @HOU and vs IND the next two weeks, an 0-5 start almost certainly guarantees it.

My body is screaming at me to take the Jags here though: Over the last 20 years, underdogs of 4+ points that lost their previous game by 30+ points are 89-50-3 (64%) ATS. It’s one of the more consistent NFL betting trends I’m aware of.

So I’m going to do it; I’m going to listen to my body and, for the third week in a row, lose money betting on this dogshit, poorly coached Jags team.

(What I love in this game is the over. Kitchen sink game for the Jags offense + Nico Collins going against a man-heavy team = points)

The picks: Jaguars +6, ⭐️ Over 44.5 ⭐️

Prop Bet(s): SGP: Alt over 40.5, Nico Collins 80+ receiving yards +132

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

This is it, y’all! According to the prophecy outlined in his last few stops, this much anticipated Week 4 is the last week Sam Darnold will perform well in a new system. And boy has he performed, operating as PFF’s 4th best QB while leading the 2nd best offense in the league. Kevin O'Connell really is something.

As for the Packers, I said last week that there was a 0% chance that Jordan Love suited up and was correct. Despite all signs pointing towards Mr Love returning this week at home, about 40% of me is holding onto Adam Schefter using the word “active” instead of “starting”. Now why would he do that?

Regardless of whether Love starts or not, I like taking the points here. If it’s Malik Willis, well, good luck getting anything done vs Brian Flores, my dude! If it is Jordan Love, I’m not sure I can place my trust in a guy that’s coming back from an almost-severe knee injury, only to face… Brian Flores. If there’s one guy you don’t want to face while shaking off some rust it’s… it’s… Brian Flores!

I’m going to take advantage of this last week of competency from Sam Darnold before going hard next week when the Vikings host the Jets. Also, it’s an Aaron Jones revenge game! Even if the real Darnold shows up early, the run game should be able to take advantage of this still (!!) not so good Packer run defense.

The picks: Vikings +3, ⭐️ Over 44 ⭐️

Prop Bet(s): Aaron Jones longest rush over 15.5 (-115), ⭐️Jayden Reed 50+ receiving yards

Cincinatti Bengals at Carolina Panthers

Well Cincy, your dreams of being good on defense again may be dead, but you do get a lifeline in a Week 4 matchup at Carolina. Oh, what’s that? Carolina might have actually nailed their FA signings, creating a top 5 offensive line for a somehow still serviceable Andy Dalton to operate behind? Hm… well, shit!

This is the must win game of must win games for the Bengals, and after riding high from their beatdown of the Raiders last week, I have a hard time believing the Panthers are going to approach this game with the same level of intensity, especially knowing that the team is almost certainly distracted by the catastrophic flooding from Hurricane Helene.

Don’t fuck me, Cincinnati! Not again!

The picks: ⭐️ Bengals -5 ⭐️, Over 47

Side note: the damage in western North Carolina is pretty catastrophic, so make sure you’re aware of that fact and donate to help the relief if you want to feel like a good person for a few minutes

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

The Rams pulled a win of their ass last week, and the Bears, led by my favorite OC in the whole wide world Shane Waldron, needed three Caleb Williams turnovers (2 INT, 1 fumble) to snatch defeat from the anus of victory - that’s how that works, right? - after outgaining the Colts 395-306. If you ignore the turnovers, Caleb had his best day as a pro, but that’s like saying “If you ignore the candidates, this has been a really exciting election!”. I still have to pick a candidate and I still have to decide whether the Bears have any business laying three points at home, despite facing an injury-plagued Rams team.

God help us.

The picks: Rams +3, Under 40.5

New York Jets at Denver Broncos

Was the Bo Nix we saw in Week 3 vs the Bucs a harbinger of what’s to come? I doubt it, and think the Jets are uniquely qualified to make Bo’s life difficult this Sunday.

Last week, the Broncos OL did a phenomenal job protecting Nix, only giving up a 23% Pressure rate despite Tampa Bay blitzing on 41% of his dropbacks. And Nix carved up the Bucs defense in these no pressure situations - can you really “carve up” a defense when your Average Air Yards / Attempt is only 5.3? - putting up +0.13 EPA / play on 28 drop backs vs -0.12 EPA / play when pressured (a still damn good number that was top 10 in Week 3).

Unfortunately, I don’t think Nix is going to be as lucky this week facing the Jets and their inverse pressure to sack stats, as the Jets are delivering a 45.6% Pressure rate (2nd best in the league) while only blitzing 23.3% of the time (22nd highest).

To make matters worse, the Jets offense appears to be finding a bit of a groove, with Aaron Rodgers looking shockingly mobile escaping the pocket and finding guys on the run. Only concern here is that Nate Hackett tries to force feed Garrett Wilson while shadowed by Patrick Surtain. The guy is elite, shadowing three excellent receivers the last three weeks and holding each of them to a pitiful output: DK Metcalf 3/4 for 29 yards and 0 TDs; George Pickens 2/4 for 29 yards and 0 TDs; and Mike Evans 2/3 for 17 yards and, you guessed it, 0 TDs.

Garrett Wilson should be on your fantasy bench this week, but you probably won’t have the balls to make that call. It’s Conklin and Lazard season over the middle.

The picks: Jets -8, Under 39.5

Prop Bet(s): Garrett Wilson under 56.5 receiving yards (-110), ⭐️ Tyler Conklin 25+ receiving (-110) ⭐️, 0.5u Conklin 40+ receiving (+235)

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fuck if I know what to do with this game. I was very excited to back the Eagles in a revenge spot, but they’ve consistently proven over the years that this team basically falls apart without RT Lane Johnson, who is questionable for Sunday. Oh, and AJ Brown + DeVonta Smith are out, so who exactly is Hurts going to be throwing to?

With Lane being a game time decision, I’m gonna give you a second 🤷 of the day and be on my way.

The picks: Bucs +1.5, Under 42

Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals

Oooooooooh boy what a game this could be! Jayden Daniels finally had his Heisman moment on MNF, demolishing the Bengals defense and rediscovering the “Scary” in Terry McLaurin. The Cardinals will be without star TE Trey McBride, but backup TE Elijah Higgins has done a shockingly good job filling the role when called upon. The highest total of the weekend is at 49 for a reason. 🤞 this game lives up to the hype.

The picks: Cardinals -3.5, Over 49

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers

Remember all those good vibes and hype we had talking about the Commies at Cardinals game? Gah, those were the good old days. Have a hard time seeing this game being anything but a run fest, even with Kittle and Deebo coming back ahead of schedule.

The picks: 49ers -10.5, Under 41

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders

Jesus Christ, another one?! Both of these teams suck! 🏃‍♂️

The picks: Browns -2.5, Over 36.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert is one tough mother fucker. Since I first had the pleasure of rooting for the guy in 2020, he’s consistently suited up in games he really has no business playing in, and this Sunday is no different.

Herbert is dealing with a very bad ankle injury. He suited up last week despite being very Questionable and after one too many handshakes with TJ Watt, he was unable to finish the game. If Herbert can manage to make it through four quarters, his arm strength alone should allow him to overcome the ankle mobility and find success throwing the ball, but with both of his excellent tackles out, it’s hard not to pick the so-far underwhelming Chiefs to do what they always do vs the Chargers: play three quarters of close, compelling football before the Bolt-killer Travis Kelce scores a last second TD for the win and the cover.

The picks: Chiefs -7, Over 41.5

Prop Bet(s): ⭐️ Travis Kelce over 46.5 receiving yards (-112) ⭐️, Kelce 60+ receiving (+172), ⭐️ Kelce over 4.5 receptions (-112) ⭐️

I mean look at these stats! Not even the Eras Tour can stop him this week.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

The main event for Week 4, this one should be a doozie. I watched a ton of film to prepare for this game and came to the bold conclusion that I have no idea who is going to win, but I like there to be a lot of points.

Through the first three weeks, the Bills defense, despite dealing with a full makeover and in-season injuries, has been excellent. Sean McDermott is good at what he does. But they’ve been excellent against a very specific kind of team, namely, a team that focuses a lot of their passing attack to outside the numbers. Let’s review:

Week 1 vs Arizona: the Cardinals torched the Bills defense, primarily relying on Kyler scrambles (5 rushes for 57 yards) and inside targets to Greg Dortch (6 catches for 47 yards) and Trey McBride (5 catches for 30 yards) to move up and down the field. MHJ was noticeably absent running routes outside;
Week 2 at Miami: the stats on this game are wonky with Tua leaving early and the Bills dominating the Dolphins (again) in the 1st half, but outside of swing passes to Achane and some rare passes to crossers over the middle, the Dolphins outside targets to Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle were more likely to be intercepted or incomplete than actually caught; and
Week 3 vs Jacksonville: the Jags got the same boat-raced treatment that Miami did in Week 2, but once again, spent much of the game not connecting on outside routes to to guys like Brian Thomas Jr

Which brings us to the Ravens. If you close your eyes and think of the Ravens passing attack, what do you see? Is it Mark Andrews or Zay Flowers running a hook route in the middle of the field? As any despondent owner of Rashod Bateman will tell you, it’s certainly not Lamar completing a pass along the sideline to a receiver downfield.

I’m not predicting that the Ravens are about to expose the Bills defense and dominate the game, as the former has been too unpredictable and unable to effectively run out the clock with a lead. What I do have though, is a high degree of confidence in the Ravens finding success across three different options: Lamar Jackson running the ball; Justice Hill swing passes; and Zay Flowers passes over the middle, with a chance to even see a reanimated Mark Andrews if that’s not working.

On the other side, people are finally realizing that losing Mike McDonald was actually a really big fucking deal for the Ravens (what a shocker, who knew!), so Josh Allen should get his. All in all, I expect points and hopefully, an awesome SNF game!

The picks: Ravens -2.5, ⭐️ Over 46.5 ⭐️

Prop Bet(s): a lot

Alt over 50.5 (+148);
⭐️ Justice Hill over 15.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐️, Justice Hill 25+ receiving (+210);
Zay Flowers over 4.5 receptions (-140); and
Khalil Shakir 5+ receptions (+106)

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

The last 🤷 of the day, how the hell is anyone supposed to handicap this game? Will Levis has been fine if you ignore the ever-growing list of interceptions, fumbles, and associated memes he’s delivered the first three weeks. Okay, he’s been pretty shit.

And the Dolphins? The Dolphins might be throwing Pro Bowler Tyler Huntley out at QB despite only being with the team for a week! I know it’s MNF, but let’s all try to avoid betting on this one, okay?

The picks: Dolphins -2.5, Under 37

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions

For the fourth week in a row, Aiden Hutchinson gets to go against a bad / backup tackle. Who’s excited to see the NFL’s biggest try hard DE (in a good way!) try to disrupt the 7th best QB vs pressure by Success rate, Geno Smith (doesn’t have the same ring to it as last week’s Kyler “jitterbug” line, does it?).

For some odd reason, this is the 4th year in a row we get to see the Seahawks take on the Lions, with the latter hoping to avoid a 4th straight loss. The game three years ago involved Tim Doyle, so let’s ignore that one, but the last two years’ games have been excellent, with a 3 point Seattle victory in 2022 and a 6 point, OT victory in 2023. Geno Smith has torched the Lions in these victories, putting up a combined 79 points in regulation.

Last week, we talked about Kyler Murray’s continued incompetence when facing man coverage, and boy did it continue, with Kyler putting up a nasty -0.10 EPA / play vs the Lions man coverage. Geno on the other hand, has been excellent vs man coverage this year, putting up a 4th best in the league 0.50 EPA / play. Will Aaron Glenn continue his man-heavy crusade this week? Sure looks like that’s the plan!

Injuries are a big story in this game, with the Lions missing their All Pro C Frank Ragnow and potentially missing star TE Sam LaPorta. The Seahawks injury report is a disaster though, with four key defensive players confirmed out (LB Boye Mafe, DT Byron Murphy, DE Leonard Williams, LB Uchenna Nwosu) and perhaps more importantly, both RT Abraham Lucas and backup RT George Fant on IR as of earlier this week. Mike McDonald did show quite the talent for keeping a high level of defensive play last year despite the Ravens injury woes, but I can’t help but remember how this Seattle team fell apart once they started relying on third string tackles in 2022 and 2023.

Geno has a chance to launch himself into the MVP discussion with a solid performance and win this week, but at the end of the day, I think Seattle’s defensive injuries and the Lions rabid home crowd are too much for the 3-0, soon to be 3-1, Seahawks.

The Danger Zone

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