NFL Week 6 Picks ATS (2024)
Week 6 spread and total picks for every NFL game, with a few prop bets along the way
This feels like a dangerous week, with 9 of our 14 games this week involving road favorites. Even with 7/9 road favorites favored by less than 4 points, aka a 50 - 65% chance of winning, this week is a bit sketchy and I don’t have a great feel for a lot of these games ATS. Seems like a good time to repeat those immortal words, “Let’s be careful out there this week”.
(I’m heads down in NBA preview writing, give me a break for my brevity)
Betting Record:
Last Week:
Against the Spread: 5-8-1 (38.5%)
Totals: 6-8 (42.9%)
Prop Bets: 8-10.5 (-1.99 units)
Starred Bets: 6-7 (46.2%)
Overall Record:
Against the Spread: 34-39-5 (46.6%)
Totals: 46-31-1 (59.7%)
Prop Bets: 24-27 (+0.05 units)
Starred Bets: 33-26 (55.9%)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Here’s what I wrote in my /sportsbook post on Reddit:
“Seattle just seems too banged up and after spending Sunday battling a shockingly tough Giants team, I have a really hard time taking them, even as a divisional home dog. DT Byron Murphy will again be missing in the middle, while CB Riq Woolen, who has been playing excellent football again after a down year in 2023, is also out. The Niners will also be without key pieces though after placing stud S Talanoa Hufanga on IR and losing their consistent (within 50 yards) K Jake Moody to an ankle injury.
The Niners have been excellent defending routes outside the numbers thus far, so I'd be careful starting DK Metcalf in lineups if you have the flexibility. This feels like a vintage Tyler Lockett game over the middle, as he falls his way into 5-6 receptions.
As for the Niners, well they've frankly kicked the shit out of the Seahawks in each of their matchups the past two years. Deebo in particular has had his way with Seattle, averaging 91 receiving, 23 rushing, and 0.7 TDs a game in their last three matchups. Even with Pete Carroll and his Cover 3 fetish no longer at the helm, I'm not sure the Seahawks have the bodies right now to effectively slow down either of the Niners' run game or pass game. Usually that situation leads to a Niners win and cover, but I thought the same thing last week vs the Cardinals... I expect Mike Macdonald to try to make Purdy uncomfortable with some more exotic packages, but Purdy has been unfazed this year, far more willing to rollout and/or scramble when his meh offensive line breaks down.
I don't love taking a -3.5 road favorite (with a 70%+ handle) on TNF, but the injuries and narrative keep pushing me towards the Niners.”
Only an idiot would be afraid of betting the obviously better team as a favorite on the road. Good win out of the 49ers, and get healthy, Seattle!
The picks: 49ers -3.5, Over 48.5
Prop Bet(s): 49ers -2.5 1H (-115), ⭐️ Brock Purdy over 11.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐️, Tyler Lockett 5+ receptions (+128), Deebo Samuel over 71.5 rushing + receiving yards (-112), Jordan Mason longest rush over 18.5 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago (London) Bears
Last Sunday was an absolute slog and a half for anyone on the West Coast. Waking up at 6:30am to watch Darnold starting to show his true colors (as predicted!) and the brutal Jets offense was not the right decision, even if the game did come down to the last couple drives. Then we had a whole, very exciting, very quadbox-heavy day of football, capped off by a Cowboys-Steelers game that finished at 10pm. Long day at the office - I was truly, truly exhausted!
This week? Oh you know I will be sleeping in till 10am.
Caleb Williams has grown by leaps and bounds the first third of the season. I’ve been very hard on Bears OC Shane Waldron to start the year, as I thought he was throwing too many concepts at Caleb without the easy outlets to keep the chains moving. But you know what? Caleb Williams is an absolute (future) superstar and all that overwhelming in Weeks 1-4 started to turn into explosive, fun offensive production in Week 5, albeit against the porous Carolina Panthers defense.
Coming out of college, the primary concern I had about Caleb was how often the USC offense turned into him attempting to put on the Superman cape and make ridiculous plays out of structure. And we saw some of that pop up the first few weeks of the NFL season - dumb stuff! The last two weeks though, Caleb has been noticeably cooler, calmer, and more collected in the pocket, primarily showing growth by staying in the pocket and connecting down the field and being willing to throw the dump-off pass to his RB D'Andre Swift. Prior to Week 4, Swift did get targets (1, 5, 4), but these were mostly designed plays or Caleb’s last option. In Weeks 4 and 5 though, Caleb discovered the value of getting the ball to Swift on the outside before he absolutely needed to, and the results have been fantastic, with Swift grabbing 7/7 balls in Week 4 for 72 yards and 2/2 in (a half of football) in Week 5 for 47 yards.
Delighted to see this kind of progress.
As for this London game, flip a fucking coin 😂 London games are so weird.
The picks: Jags -1, Over 44.5
Prop Bet(s): ⭐️ D'Andre Swift over 19.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens
Who would’ve thought before this year that this Week 6 matchup would be in contention for “Game of the Week” honors. NFL is the best, huh?
I got some bad news though… this has all the telltale signs of a Ravens blowout win to me, as Lamar continues a dominant streak vs the NFC (21-1 SU, 11-11 ATS).
Remember last year in Week 7 when the 5-1 Ravens hosted the red hot 5-1 Lions, with the latter fresh off a dominant defensive throttling of the Bucs on the road? Lamar put up a 21/27, 357 yard, 3 TD passing line, outgaining the Lions 503-337. Ravens 38, Lions 6.
Remember last year in Week 9 when the 6-2 Ravens hosted the frisky 5-2 Seahawks? Lamar got to rest the entire 4th quarter as the Ravens put up an absurd 41 carry, 293 yard, 3 TDs rushing performance, outgaining the Seahawks 515-151(!). Ravens 37, Seahawks 3.
Now I know this Ravens defense isn’t doing the same 2000 Ravens impression they were doing at the start of last season, but time and time again, Lamar and this organization have demolished sexy NFC teams coming into town.
I think it happens on the ground vs Washington. Here are the Rushing Success rates of the Commanders’ first 5 opponents:
Buccaneers: 39.2% (20th);
Giants: 36.1% (28th);
Bengals: 41.1% (16th);
Cardinals: 43.3% (7th); and
Browns: 36.9% (27th)
The Commanders have given up a 15+ yard run to nine different RBs… they’ve only played five games! And now they get to go to Baltimore: 50.6% (2nd).
Mr. Daniels, it’s been fun, but this week the hype train takes a quick pitstop before getting back on track at home hosting the Panthers in Week 7.
The picks: ⭐️ Ravens -6.5 ⭐️, Under 51.5
Prop Bet(s): A lot…
⭐️ Ravens 1H -1.5 (+106) ⭐️
⭐️ Derrick Henry over 83.5 rushing yards (-112) ⭐️
0.5u Henry 110+ rushing (+220)
⭐️ Henry longest rush over 17.5 (-114) ⭐️
⭐️ Zach Ertz 4+ receptions (-110) ⭐️
0.5u Ertz 5+ receptions (+180)
Luke McCaffrey 3+ receptions (+172)
The Ravens are quite good - Jamar Chase notwithstanding - at shutting down throws outside, but are weak in the middle of the field. Someone on Washington is going to catch some balls on Sunday, and through Week 5, that middle of the field has been Zach Ertz’s home, and recently, LMC’s (Luke McCaffrey)
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
On the topic of teams that can’t stop the run, may I introduce you to two teams that love to run the ball facing an opponent that absolutely cannot stop the run. Here are both teams’ Defensive Rushing Success rates through five games:
Cardinals: 47.8% (29th)
Packers (still… how are they still this bad vs the run!?): 45.0% (26th)
I truly have no idea what happens in this game ATS. Could see the Cardinals giving up 500+ yards after being exhausted by their upset win vs the 49ers. Jordan Love has historically demolished single high and Cover 3 looks and the Cardinals play those schemes at a top 10 rate. Jayden Reed in particular loves those matchups and this week, he gets to abuse Cardinals slot corner Kei'Trel Clark who is giving up 0.25 Targets per Route Run as the primary defender - yikes! And yet, I could also see James Connor + Kyler Murray abusing this Packers run D and stealing another win on the road 🤷
Let’s take the points and bank on some explosive runs.
The picks: Cardinals +5.5, Over 47.5
Prop Bet(s): ⭐️ Kyler Murray over 32.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐️, 0.5u Murray 40+ rushing (+144), ⭐️ Jayden Reed over 62.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️, 0.5u Reed 80+ receiving (+165), ⭐️ Reed 5+ receptions (-136) ⭐️, Reed 6+ receptions (+140)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Drake Maye, congrats on your first NFL start! Have you met my friends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr?
Who knows what to do with this game. We have a wild card rookie QB that could scramble + chuck his way down field for some scores and a Texans team attempting to replace the physical, top 10 WR Nico Collins with a bunch of shifty, undersized guys that are definitively not Nico Collins. Tank Dell just doesn’t look healthy and Xavier Hutchinson, well he’s Xavier Hutchinson. Is the corpse of Robert Woods still on the roster?
The ATS stats for Stroud and the Texans aren’t great here: Stroud is 2-7 ATS as a favorite of 3+ points and 1-5 ATS in his last six starts vs a defensing holding opponents to 21 PPG or less, with that one ATS win being the pull it out your ass victory vs the Bills last week. Also, if you' haven’t heard, underdogs of 5.5 points or more are doing pretty well this year.
This Texans team desperately needs the running game of Joe Mixon who, although expected to return this week as of this writing, is coming back from a pretty brutal ankle injury. May be another week before we feel Mixon’s impact there, unfortunately.
Let’s bank of the talent of Drake Maye in what I expect to be a pretty ugly game.
The picks: Patriots +6.5, Under 37.5
Prop Bet(s): Xavier Hutchinson over 2.5 receptions (+138)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
I was getting ready to go all in on the hurricane fade of the Bucs, who had to spend the entire week wondering what would be left of their neighborhoods back home on the west coast of Florida. Alas though, the hurricane wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been, and we gotta roll with the Bucs here, finally getting their defense healthy and going up against rookie QB Spencer Rattler, making his first NFL start. Rattler wasn’t all that good vs pressure in college and what does Todd Bowles love to do more than anything?
The picks: Buccaneers -3.5, Under 41.5
Prop(s): Chris Godwin over 10.5 1Q receiving yards (-110), ⭐️ Chris Godwin over 63.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
Most intriguing part of every Bucs-Saints game? Obviously the Mike Evans vs Marshon Lattimore rivalry! This smells like a big time Chris Godwin game as Lattimore gets another (pyrrhic) victory
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles
Now I know both fanbases obviously would like to win this game, but isn’t there a small part of each fanbase that would like to see some radical changes spurred by a loss on Sunday? Wouldn’t we all like to see Deshaun Watson rot in hell get benched and Jameis Winston try to do his best 2023 Flacco impression? Wouldn’t it be nice to not have to look at Nick Sirianni’s dumb mug on the sidelines each week?
Yes, yes it certainly would.
I wouldn’t be shocked by any combination of Browns cover / Eagles cover and Over / Under in this game. I hate myself for doing this, but I’m backing the goddamn Browns again and banking on the return of AJ Brown and some kind of Amari Cooper-led offensive success from the Browns to get this total over. Probably going to need a Winston sighting in the 2nd half to get there, but it may finally be that time.
The picks: Browns +8.5, Over 42.5
Prop(s): AJ Brown over 72.5 receiving yards (-110)
AJ Brown absolutely demolishes man-heavy defenses and that’s exactly what he’s going to get on Sunday vs Cleveland
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
You’re telling me I have to pick a side between Anthony Richardson on the road or Will Levis being Will Levis? Next game please!
The picks: Titans -2.5, Over 42.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Here’s a fun Harbaugh stat for you: when he was with the 49ers, Harbaugh went 14-5-1 SU playing on extended rest.
And that’s all I got for this game!
The Chargers really don’t have any business being road favorites vs anyone but the Panthers, but for some reason, I kinda believe in them here. Most of that faith comes down to injuries: the solid Broncos OL will be without RT Alex Palczewskin and C Luke Wattenberg this week, while the Chargers will have RT Joe Alt and LT Rashawn Slater (likely) returning from injury after their bye. The Chargers secondary is beat up though, so, even with these sicko coaches loving the hard-nosed 35.5 total, I like there to be some points in this one.
The picks: Chargers -3, ⭐️ Over 35.5 ⭐️
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders
Goddamn, what an ugly game.
I really dislike backing the Steelers as a 3 point favorite on the road, but this is Vegas we’re talking about here. The Terrible Towels will be out in full force, ready to explode when new (old?) starting QB Aidan O'Connell throws an absolute duck down the middle of the field for an interception.
The picks: Steelers -3, Under 36.5
Prop(s): ⭐️ Tre Tucker over 3.5 receptions (-106) ⭐️
Tre Tucker screwed me last week, but with Jakobi Meyers doubtful, the ball has to go somewhere cause lord knows the Raiders ain’t gonna find any success running the ball (Bowers might have 30 targets)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Here I go again, backing the Panthers - yippeeeeee!
My main logic? Just because Kirk Cousins moved to Atlanta doesn’t mean the rollercoaster still isn’t runnng:
Kirk Cousins after a win: 31-43-2 ATS (42%)
Only Smokin’ Jay Cutler has a worse record… god I miss Smokin’ Jay Cutler 😢
Kirk Cousins after a win, giving 4+ points: 4-14-1 ATS (22%)
Not great!
The Falcons defense still can’t manage to sack the QB, coming into this Week 6 game with a league-worst 5 sacks, and the Panthers OL continues to provide elite levels of protection. Dalton couldn’t get anything done last week through the air, but this Falcons secondary is nowhere close to what the Bears are rolling out there.
We like points here.
The picks: Panthers +6, ⭐️ Over 46.5 ⭐️
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Unfortunately for NFL fans, I think this second potential “Game of the Week” is also a stinker (wah wah).
Dallas’ defense is injured and struggling. They’ve played a ton of Cover 1 this year (50% of opponent dropback attempts!) and the Lions, even with their struggles to start the year, are absolutely dicing up Cover 1 so far, putting up the 4th best EPA / dropback (0.39).
Let’s say Dallas changes things up though, running more Cover 2 and bringing the safeties down to try to protect their bottom 3 rush defense. Well, they have another issue then, as the Dallas secondary is 32nd in the league at allowing separation to WRs this year (continuing a trend from the last several years). ARSB is one of the best separators in the league and Jameson Williams has operated as a top 10 receiver (in EPA / target) when he has a step or more on his defender. No matter what Dallas does defensively, they’re going to be in trouble.
Now the Detroit secondary certainly has their issues - they’re particularly bad at avoiding holds and pass interference calls thus far - and I know Ceedee Lamb has been looking forward to this rematch after he put up a gaudy 13 catch, 227 yard performance in last year’s meeting, but I just don’t see how Dallas gets off the field on defense often enough to be competitive.
Long drives, lots of explosive runs, and a dominant Lions victory before their key divisional matchup at Minnesota next week. Restore the fucking roar, baby!
The picks: ⭐️ Lions -3.5 ⭐️, Under 52.5
Prop Bet(s): ⭐️ David Montgomery over 58.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐️, 0.5u Montgomery 70+ rushing (+142), 0.5u Montgomery 80+ rushing (+210), ⭐️ Jahmyr Gibbs 60+ rushing yards (-112) ⭐️, 0.5u Gibbs 80+ rushing (+190)
I wish there was a way for me to bet on the Lions to throw a pass to an offensive or defensive lineman, but these goddamn sportsbooks don’t want any part of that heat
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants
I wonder how much shit Malik Nabers’ teammates are giving him for self-concussing himself so badly that he’s about to miss a second straight week. It’s honestly impressive.
I have no feel for this game. The Bengals defense is approaching historically bad territory, while the Giants defense, led by their thus far dominant defensive line, has been quite effective to start the year despite only having one good player in the secondary.
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals offense has put up 25, 33, 34, and 38 points since their shocking Week 1 loss to the Patriots. They’re running the ball effectively and the Burrow-Chase connection has never looked better. Sure am glad I traded him away for MHJ and Jake Furguson… (fuck you Ross ❤️) As for the Giants, well they kinda look like the 9-7-1 team from two years ago, with Daniels Jones looking competent again?!
Again, no feel for this game, but the Bengals really, really desperately need to win this game before heading to Cleveland and hosting the Eagles the next two weeks.
The picks: Bengals -3.5, Over 46.5
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers may not be much of a son, brother, life partner, or leader, but goddamn, has he been a great friend to Nate Hackett, the completely inept Jets OC that was just demoted but agreed to stay on staff. Keep getting them checks, Nate!
Josh Allen was clearly concussed at the end of last week’s loss to the Texans, but even if we didn’t have that lingering in the back of our minds, Allen has really struggled against the Jets the last two years, losing 2/4 matchups vs Zach Wilson and averaging only 21 PPG. With the Bills RB James Cook dealing with turf toe and their #1 chain-mover Khalil Shakir also questionable, it’s not surprising to see this line is only Buffalo -2.5.
Not sure what to do with this one without a final injury report, so I’m going to take the points and go under with the assumption that one or both of Cooks + Shakir won’t be playing on MNF.