NFL Week 3 Picks ATS (2024)
Week 3 spread and total picks for every NFL game, with a few prop bets along the way
The NFL never has a shortage of storylines, but this year, one theme is clear through two weeks: redemption. Sure, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 2-0, but the rest of the undefeated teams are all led by guys that overcame some challenge to find success this new season:
The Bills let most of their offensive and defensive weapons walk out the door, with people wondering how Josh Allen was going to perform in a rebuilding year for the Bills;
The Steelers’ Justin Fields still can’t read defenses or throw to the middle of the field, but is playing the best football of his career, stats be damned, after the team that drafted him traded him for a 6th round pick and a sack of potatoes;
The Vikings lost their top 10 pick and QB of the future to season-ending injury, but have maximized the almost-journeyman Sam Darnold these first two weeks to the tune of 2-0;
The Saints’ Derek Carr’s days were supposedly numbered with a 5th round rookie QB waiting in the wings before Derek came out and put up 40+ points these first two weeks;
Geno Smith, previously redeemed with the Seahawks, had a down year last season and longterm viability questions heading into this year before coming out and playing like a top 10 QB;
The Texans don’t have any redemption story - good luck this weekend;
Baker Mayfield, with the NFL public finally believing in him, was going to shit the bed (again) after the Bucs lost offensive mastermind Dave Canales; and
The Chargers’ J.K. Dobbins was going to lose his job to a broken down Gus Edwards or a 6th round rookie after playing only 24 / 67 games the last four years while he recovered from a catastrophic list of injuries
All of these guys were written off or played down, but through two weeks, they’re one of 477 guys that can say they’re undefeated. Redemption…
And HOLY SHIT do I need some redemption after last week. I haven’t taken a Sunday beating that bad since my dad checked the sharpie mark on his freezer vodka after I had people over on a Saturday night in high school.
You know when you give yourself a pep talk in front of the mirror that the woman you have at home completes you and is everything you could possibly want, before promptly going out, getting hammered, and fucking the waitress at the Buffalo Wild Wings 2.3 miles away? Me neither. But I do know what it’s like to write 500 words detailing exactly what not to do betting Week 2 of the NFL season, before promptly going out, getting hammered, and pounding the Ravens -8.5, Cowboys -6.5, Lions -7.5, 49ers -4.5, Chiefs -6, and Eagles -6. Woof.
Now here’s the good news: we’re still 14-16-2 ATS on the year and more importantly (note: subject to change), 21-10-1 betting totals this year. Let’s keep it rolling.
Betting Record:
Against the Spread: 14-16-2 (46.7%)
Totals: 21-10-1 (67.7%)
Prop Bets: 6-10.5 (-4.8 units)
Starred Bets: 7-5 (58.3%)
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Ugly game between two solid defenses. Apologies to Rhamondre owners.
The picks: Jets -6.5, Under 39
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts
Despite averaging an embarrassingly bad 2.0 Yards per Carry, a number good for 45th place among 47 RBs, D'Andre Swift is going against a Colts team that gave up two straight weeks of 200+ rushing yards. I’m hopeful that at some point, disastrously bad Bears OC Shane Waldron will figure out that he has two other capable RBs to run with, but that day is not today and Swift should benefit accordingly. With the Bears running game finally giving Caleb a bit of breathing room, I think the #1 overall pick puts together his best game as a pro. It’s not a high bar, but the static (and injured) nature of the Gus Bradley’s Cover 3 defense should allow Caleb to find some success. Hell, Cole Kmet may even eclipse 30 yards receiving!
At the end of the day, there’s only one very good unit on the field here, and it’s the Bears defense. Go Bears!
The picks: Bears +1.5, Under 43.5
Prop Bet(s): Caleb Williams over 1.5 TDs (+174)
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
The best of the total is unfortunately gone, opening at 38.5 and promptly being bet down to 37.5, then 37, then 36, with the line now all the way down at 35, a number I cannot recommend betting on after such staggering line movement. Justin Herbert has a pretty bad ankle sprain, so either he plays and is immobile and has to deal with interior pressure all day, or we get to see Easton Stick walk his way into multiple sacks. Not confident in this pick, but gotta go with the healthy QB in this battle of the underserving undefeateds.
The picks: Steelers -2.5, Under 35
Prop Bet(s): Justin Herbert longest completion under 32.5 (-114)
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings
Vikings DC Brian Flores was an absolute madman last season, blitzing at by far the highest rate in the league and pulling some games out of his ass due to the pure chaos he invited. By the end of the season though, OCs figured out his game, and the Vikings defense suffered accordingly, giving up 29.2 PPG in their final five games, over 3 PPG worse than the #31 Titans (26.1 PPG) over the same time period.
Through the first two weeks this year though, the Vikings defense, buoyed by the FA acquisitions of former Houston LBs Jonathan Greenard and Blake Cashman, has been remarkably successful, shutting down the Giants offense in Week 1 (…whatever) and the (kinda injured) 49ers offense in Week 2. The stats reflect this accordingly YoY
CJ Stroud also struggled when blitzed last year, ranking as PFF’s 24th best QB when blitzed vs 11th when not. So why am I fading the Vikings, this and next week vs the Packers? Well, because we’re approaching that fateful Week 4 when Sam Darnold has historically shown his true colors after thriving for the first 2-4 weeks in a new system. The Vikings OL is certainly better than whatever mess Chicago rolled out last week, but I don’t think they’re going to be able to block the combo of DE Will Anderson and former Viking DE Danielle Hunter.
The phenomenal coaching of HC Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores hits a bump this week, as the Texans’ relentless pressure from the outside + Stroud’s ability to overcome the blitz is too much for the Vikings.
The picks: Texans -1.5, Under 46
Prop Bet(s): ⭐️ Tank Dell 50+ receiving (-112) ⭐️, Dell 60+ receiving (+134), 0.5u Dell 70+ receiving (+192)
Stroud targeted Tank Dell the most when facing quarters last year, and the Vikings are the #1 quarters team in the league thus far, rolling out that umbrella coverage 30% of plays this year vs 10% last year. Play him if you have him.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns
What an awful game. Only reason I’m picking the Browns is because they’re at home, typically a good sign for this defense, and because I cannot bear to pick the loser Giants ATS three weeks in a row. I’m definitely concerned by Myles Garrett dealing with injuries to both his feet and talking post-season surgery (!), as well as the Giants potentially getting pressure vs this still-makeshift Browns OL, but I can’t bring myself to take the nastiness that is Giants +6.5. They’re definitely covering this week, aren’t they?
The picks: Browns -6.5, Under 38.5
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
Historically, it’s taken around a quarter of the season for a Vic Fangio-led defense to get everything moving in harmony, so my longterm concern around the Eagles' defense is quite low. But the combo of the Eagles’ pressure-less evening last Monday vs the Falcons, AJ Brown still being out, and the Saints OL playing like a top 5 unit despite very low preseason expectations - redemption - all lead me to believe that Derek Carr is going to be kept clean. Love or hate our eyeliner-wearing friend, Mr. Carr can sling the ball when he has a clean pocket. This game will rocket over the total of 49.5 if the Eagles can pull their weight.
The picks: Saints -2.5, ⭐️ Over 49.5 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): ⭐️ Saints 1H over 12.5 (-150) ⭐️
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No idea what to do with this game. Kinda feels like trap game for the Bucs looking ahead to their playoff rematch with the Eagles next week, but this Broncos offense has been so unbelievably bad the first two weeks, I just can’t bear to pick them. Even with the Bucs secondary injuries and Vita Vea, run-stopper extraordinaire out, I have a hard time picking the Broncos at anything less than +7.5.
The picks: Bucs -6, Over 41
Prop Bet(s): Bo Nix over 18.5 completions (-123)
He dinks and dunks then punts and dinks and dunks then punts…
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans
There’s a 0% chance Jordan Love plays in this game and unlike the fool that is Colts DC Gus Bradley refusing to stack the box vs the Packers in last week’s loss, the Titans will be dead set on making backup QB Malik Willis throw the ball.
The picks: Titans -3, Under 37.5
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders
The Red Rocket is still kicking, and with a Panthers offensive line that has been elite - yes elite to the tune of #1 lowest pressure rate in the league - at preventing pressure, I expect him to find success throwing the ball. Diontae Johnson still may not produce, but the old guy to old guy connection will be strong this Sunday.
The picks: Panthers +6, ⭐️ Over 40 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): ⭐️ Adam Thielen 40+ receiving yards (-115) ⭐️, Thielen 50+ receiving (+140), 0.5u Thielen 60+ receiving (+218)
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks
Another game that gets a confident 🤷 from me, it seems the Seahawks may be destined to be the ML heart attack team this year, giving both the Broncos and Patriots chances to win the game in the 4th / OT before eventually winning by under a TD. I trust the Seahawks to win with Geno Smith playing this well, but by 4 or less. Come back soon, Kenneth Walker. Zach Charbonnet kinda sucks!
The picks: Dolphins +4.5, Over 41.5
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
For the third week in a row, Aiden Hutchinson gets to go against a bad / backup tackle. Who’s excited to see the NFL’s biggest try hard DE (in a good way!) chase around the premier jitterbug QB, Kyler Murray. Going to be an excellent battle as I field the panicked texts from all my Lions-fan friends.
Speaking of Kyler Murray, this may be a tough outing for him vs the Lions’ man-heavy defense. Continuing a trend that started the day he stepped foot in the NFL, Kyler Murray just hasn’t played well vs man coverage this year:
30th in EPA/attempt (-0.22 EPA / attempt) vs man. 3rd in EPA / attempt (+0.09) vs zone
27th in Success Rate vs man. 11th in Success Rate vs zone
22nd in Yards per Attempt (5.6 yards) vs man. 10th in YpA (7.6) vs zone.
52% Completion Rate vs man (yikes!). 73% vs zone (wow!)
Can this trend break for a week as the Cardinals get the upset? Sure, but unlikely. This truly is a trend that has held strong since Murray’s first NFL game. Here I think the Lions get back on track, with the Goff-LaPorta connection on full display, as the play-action game clicks and the Lions’ stiff run defense shuts down the Cardinals’ offensive engine. And boy do they need that play-action game to get going early and often. Goff on early downs this year with play-action: +0.40 EPA / attempt vs without play-action: -0.29 EPA / attempt. Woof. Make it happen, Ben Johnson.
The picks: ⭐️ Lions -3 ⭐️, Under 51.5
Prop Bet(s): A lot 😅
1. ⭐️ Sam LaPorta to score a TD (+150) ⭐️, ⭐️ LaPorta over 44.5 receiving (-114) ⭐️, 0.5u LaPorta 60+ receiving (+184)
2. 0.5u SGP: Laporta TD, David Montgomery TD (+393), 0.5u SGP: Laporta TD, Jahmyr Gibbs TD (+371)
One of those two RBs should have a TD vs this unreliable Cardinals run defense. I think LaPorta gets fed this week, particularly in the red-zone like he was last year, so banking that at least 1/2 SGPs above hit
3. ⭐️ Kyler Murray over 30.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐️, Murray 40+ rushing (+150), 0.5u Murray 50+ rushing (+260)
He might not have success throwing the ball, but the man eats against man coverage on the run. And he’s going to be on the run quite a bit
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
I still think the Ravens are a good football team despite losing to what I believe to be an absolutely terrible Raiders team at home last week. And more importantly, what do we know about the Cowboys? They lose against good teams. The Ravens aren’t really going to start 0-3, right…? Right?!
The picks: Ravens -1, ⭐️ Over 47.5 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): ⭐️ Justice Hill over 12.5 receiving yards (-112) ⭐️, 0.5u Hill 25+ receiving (+270)
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
The battle of the injury-ravaged, NFC “year from hell” teams! I know that Kyle Shanahan almost always kicks the Rams’ ass, but this is just too many points for a 49ers team that has consistently underperformed without all of their weapons with Brock Purdy at the helm. This game could be ugly.
The picks: Rams +6.5, Under 43.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Hey, thanks for showing up at the end there, Kirk. My Eagles teasers really appreciated it! Is the old man back - this should be interpreted as the good version of Kirk Cousins, an objectively old QB, not a disparaging “old man” remark - or should we expect this week to be another trip on the immobile rollercoaster? I’m banking on the latter as the Chiefs interior pressure bothers Cousins all night.
The picks: Chiefs -3, Under 46.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
I think the Jags may be this year’s “fade as favorites, back as a dog” team. The Bills are not nearly as good as their ass whooping of the Dolphins last TNF may indicate. Not sure if the Jags can win this game, but think they keep it close in a high scoring, early Monday night affair.
(Side note: I love the Monday night double header that happens 3x a year)
The picks: Jags +5.5, Over 45.5
Washington Commanders at Cincinatti Bengals
Another AFC North team that isn’t really going to start the year 0-3, right (right?!)? It’s clear that the Bengals were looking ahead to their Week 2 battle vs the Chiefs when they blew up every survivor pool vs the Pats in Week 1. God, there truly is nothing more confidence-inspiring than a coaching staff having a Week 1 look-ahead loss vs a terrible team. Tee Higgins is supposedly back for this game, so I think all systems are a go for the Bengals to look like the Bengals vs the Commanders’ worst defense in the league. Don’t love the hook here on the -7.5, but my fear of a cheap 4th quarter Jayden Daniels TD down 14 is outweighed by the Bengals potentially putting up 40.