2024-2025 NFL Preview Part II: Team by Team Breakdowns
Breakdowns of all 32 teams with offensive + defensive PPG projections
Introduction
A quick note before we begin…
This is my third attempt at an NFL Preview piece and the v3.0 of my NFL model that somehow, someway has clocked in at 86% and 84% accuracy the last two years at predicting offensive and defensive PPG. Will lightning strike thrice?! Doubt it, but there is a ceiling and floor for offenses and defenses in the league so who knows.
I tried to fill in some gaps on the v2 of the model by (1) adding some more factors on the PPG side of things and (2) a big change, pumping out offensive and defensive ranges on a game by game basis. Not sure how the latter is going to go but we shall see! I still ended up picking every game using a combination of the model’s outputs, a team’s schedule, and some good old fashioned picking the results that matched the narratives I already believed in, but the model definitely had more sway this year.
So what’s in this here monster of a document? Every team has a writeup and bold prediction / best bet on top of their projected record and offensive + defensive PPG. All stats come from FantasyPros, PFF+, FTN, SIS, Warren Sharp’s preview, Reception Perception, or some good old fashioned random tweet I bookmarked four months ago, so don’t expect any kind of references outside of random hyperlinking. Also this thing is over 12,000 words, so uh… it may take a while to get through.
And that’s it! If you have thoughts, please let me know or leave a comment. I’m always hungry for feedback, positive or negative!
AFC Record Projections
NFC Record Projections
Offensive and Defensive PPG Projections
Playoffs + Awards
Wild Card Round
AFC
(2) Texans over (7) Bills
(3) Bengals over (6) Ravens
(4) Jets over (5) Jaguars
NFC
(7) Seahawks over (2) 49ers
(3) Eagles over (6) Cowboys
(5) Packers over (4) Falcons
Divisional Round
AFC
(1) Chiefs over (4) Jets
(4) Bengals over (2) Texans
NFC
(1) Lions over (7) Seahawks
(5) Packers over (3) Eagles
Conference Championship Round
AFC
(1) Chiefs over (2) Bengals
NFC
(1) Lions over (5) Packers
Super Bowl
(1) Chiefs over (1) Lions… I apologize to everyone
Awards
Regular Season MVP
Patrick Mahomes (+450), Backup: Joe Burrow (+1100)
Offensive Player of the Year
Josh Allen (+3500), Backup: Ceedee Lamb (+1100)
Defensive Player of the Year
Aiden Hutchinson (+1400), Backup: TJ Watt (+850)
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Caleb Williams (+120), Backup: Marvin Harrison Jr (+650)
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Terrion Arnold (+1400), Backup: Payton Wilson (+5000)
Comeback Player of the Year
J.K. Dobbins (+3000), Backup: Aaron Rodgers (+175)
Coach of the Year
Mike Macdonald (+1200), Backup: DeMeco Ryans (+1600)
The Best and Worst of Last Year’s Breakdown
Up next are the team previews for all 32 NFL teams this year, but first, let’s take a look at some highs and lows from last year’s breakdown.
The Best Calls
“Arthur Smith proudly becomes the new head coach fantasy players hate the most”
- Fucking nailed it
“Getting back to the Panthers, they’re going to be really, frighteningly bad going 0-6 before the BYE. Mostly frighteningly bad for my slight friend Bryce Young, but also, please don’t watch anymore than a couple snaps before the Lions game. Young is going to take some nasty hits - like this one! - during that stretch.”
- They were in fact frighteningly bad
“The [Browns] defense should make that #12 projection look foolish after just a few weeks”
- Big fan of preemptively calling out where I know I’m being dumb
“...Courtland Sutton finally recovers from his torn ACL + MCL in 2020, finishing as a top 20 WR in fantasy on the back of Joe Lombardi’s love for big X receivers.”
- Didn’t finish top 20 for the season, but did perform as a top 20 WR from week 7 on and the Lombardi love for big X receivers call was spot on
The Worst Calls
“After that though, [Carolina] gels, runs the ball 300 times, and somehow finishes the year 7-4 by beating up on the AFC South and winning a couple opponent trap games vs the Cowboys and Packers.”
- Unfortunately, frighteningly bad for the whole season
“Not really that bold, but Jonathan Gannon gives us a “historically bad, one and done coaches” threepeat and gets fired by year end”
- I really like Coach Gannon now - what a turn!
“The Bengals win the Super Bowl, Joe Burrow tries but fails to improve upon this picture, and Lou Anarumo heads east to coach his hometown Jets.”
- Can’t feel that bad about this Super Bowl call with Burrow having a flukey wrist injury after finally looking right, but the Lou call? The defense left a lot to be desired (but there’s still a chance he heads east this summer…)
Onto the previews!
Arizona Cardinals (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #4 Offense, #27 Defense
I really, really wanted to find a way for the Cardinals to make the playoffs this year, but after studying the defense, I just couldn’t make it happen. Let’s try to make the case anyways:
Kyler Murray is back and fully healthy 1.5 years after tearing his ACL, and boy oh boy did the Cardinals feel his impact once he returned in Week 10 of last year
The team turned into a top 3 rushing unit in the league, putting up the #1 Yards per Carry (5.3) and #2 RB rushing success rate (43%)
OC Drew Petzing drew up exquisite game plans, not just with the run game, with the Week 10+ Cardinals putting up the #5 most yards per drive (35 yards) and the #7 most points per drive (43%)
The Cardinals are adding the best, most pro-ready WR in the nation in rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. I mean just look at this Reception Perception table
From my draft writeup, “Marvin Harrison is the only college receiver over the last 11 years to have a 70%+ success rate when doubled on at least 8.5% of his routes. And MHJ put up that 70% success rate while being doubled on 16.8% (!!) of his routes, the highest double team rate in the RP database”
The defense, who by any statistical measure was one of the five worst in the NFL last year, spent picks #27 on DE Darius Robinson and #43 on CB Max Melton, in addition to adding CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, DT Justin Jones, and DT Bilal Nichols in free agency. All of these additions were targeted at the weakest points of the 2023-24 Cardinals defense
Rookie DE Darius Robinson to improve their 29th ranked Pressure Rate (32%);
Rookie CB Melton and the 88th best coverage CB Sean Murphy-Bunting to improve their 27th ranked Yards per Attempt (7.6) and 31st ranked EPA per Drop-back (0.19); and
The 69th ranked Run Stop % defensive lineman in DTs Jones and Nichols to improve their 31st ranked RB Yards per Carry (4.6) and 31st ranked RB Yards Before Contact (1.65 yards)
These are rookies and replacement level FA signings, but when you’re working from the 27th, 29th, and 31st ranked defensive units, replacement level is moving up in the world
All that adds up to an improving (but bad) defense and what I project to be one of the best offenses in the league. That usually equates to an average team and average teams typically win around 8 games, but couldn’t we go rationally go higher with a little luck?
Sure, but just so you’re on the same balanced page as me, let’s run through the bear case, aka why Vegas thinks this team is only going to win 7 games this year:
The front office intentionally chose to not focus their resources on defense, with < 50% of their 2024 draft picks and < 50% of their FA dollars going to that side of the ball, all leading to the 22nd most expensive defense in the league (and it’s not because there’s a bunch of young guys driving costs down). The time to level up the defense will come next year, or as GM Monti Ossenfort said this summer, “We have a long way to go… We're ready to take the next step.”
The Cardinals have the 12th most difficult strength of schedule this year, and this defense - this ^^ defense - is projected to play the NFL’s hardest slate of opposing offenses
The Cardinals (and their defense) will quickly show us how good they can be, starting the year off like so: @Bills, vs Rams, vs Lions, vs Commanders, @49ers, @Packers, vs Chargers, @Dolphins
If you’re wondering, that’s FIVE different games vs teams that had Top 10 offenses last year, all within the first 8 weeks! The next closest schedule is the Chiefs’, who have two such games in the first 8 weeks (vs Ravens, @49ers)
Kyler Murray has struggled to stay healthy and/or effective late in the season every years he’s been in the league
In case you forgot, Kyler Murray was the MVP favorite heading into Week 8 of the 2021-22 season. What happened after that? Injuries finally took their toll on our 5’10, 207lb friend, as Kyler sprained his ankle on a 1st down scramble vs the Packers, forcing him to miss the next three games and significantly impacting the quality of his play:
Yards per Attempt: Weeks 1 - 8: 8.9 YPA (#4) → Weeks 13 - 17: 6.8 YPA (#16)
Completion Percentage: 72.% (#4) → 64.0% (#20)
PFF Passing Grade: 77.5 → 70.3 (sorry, not doing that manual work for team #1 😅)
So there it is: a team with a lot of promise and hope for the future, but one that is just a few steps behind contender status.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The Cardinals finishing with a top 5 offense is absolutely bold enough, but let’s give you another one. The 2023-24 Cardinals set a 17 game NFL gambling record, going 13-4 to the over. Oh, and bet Marvin Harrison Jr. over 1050.5 receiving yards -110 and +150 to have the most rookie receiving yards
Atlanta Falcons (9-8)
Projected Finishes: #18 Offense, #23 Defense
Let’s bring in some of my friends from Atlanta to kick this one off.
“Falcons will win the NFC South in Week 18 in front of 10,000 fans at home. Everyone will be hungover from the Georgia College Football Playoff game (only Atlanta United can sell out the Mercedes Stadium)”
-LB J.
Love the confidence (?) and the clear demarcation between what Georgians care and only kinda care about, but let’s get a little more specific, shall we?
“There’s a lot of optimism for the first time in a long time. We have a big time addition by subtraction with Desmond Ridder gone, but also an addition by addition with Cousins and Raheem Morris stepping in. We should at least win our shit division and be pretty fun along the way; probably even use some of our offensive weapons finally. I’m pretty sure the Falcons have only beaten the Steelers like twice in our history, but I’m really looking forward to our Week 1 revenge game vs idiot nepo baby Arthur Smith”
-Jimmy L.
I actually checked the Falcons H2H record vs the Steelers and Jimmy was absolutely right: they’re 2-15-1 vs the Steelers all time, with the last win coming in a 2006 Week 7 OT game from the Michael Vick-led Falcons. Nice pull, Jimbo!
Speaking of Jimmys, obviously the headline change is the Falcons going from HC Arthur Smith - I still love you! - to 2nd times the charm HC Raheem Morris, but a sneaky big change is the Falcons replacing DC Ryan Nielsen with new DC Jimmy Lake. Now Jimmy (Lake, definitely not my Jimmy L… shit this gonna be confusing) is a well regarded cornerbacks coach, having found success in that role for 20+ years across college and the NFL, but his track record as a DC or HC is a little spottier, with his time at UW being a notable disaster. More importantly though, Mr. Lake is replacing Ryan Nielsen (now with the Jags and someone you’ll hear more about later), who somehow took this very shaky Falcons defensive unit and turned them into the 6th most efficient defense in the league, primarily on the back of their #1 red zone defense and #3 3rd down defense.
That shaky defensive roster had a chance to do the unthinkable and add the best defender in the 2024 NFL Draft at pick #8, but alas, it was not meant to be. Instead of adding an impact player to the 3rd worst pressure rate defense in the league, the Falcons took an old QB to add to their very old, newly signed QB, and then proceeded to let their #1 and #2 best pass rushers - LB Bud Dupree and DT Calais Campbell - walk in free agency. DE Grady Jarrett is back after tearing his ACL in Week 8 last season, but I’m not banking on Jarrett + rookie DT Ruke Orhorhoro adding up to the 13 sacks that left this offseason.
More important than all of this is the very old, newly signed QB Kirk Cousins. As Jimmy, my Jimmy, said above, Cousins is a double addition to this Falcons team, replacing one of the worst QBs in the league in Desmond Ridder. Here’s the thing though… Kirk Cousins, never the most mobile guy, tore his Achilles in Week 8 of last season. Perhaps I’m getting the math wrong, but that appears to mean that 36 year old Kirk Cousins is going to be starting football games and carrying the weight of this team less than 10 months after having the most devastating injury a football player can have outside of actually amputating a limb. Perhaps modern medicine has taken a step up in the last 5 years, but right now all I see is 99% of football media glossing over the fact that Kirk Cousins TORE HIS ACHILLES 10 MONTHS AGO and might just be bad at playing football now!! The counter of course, is that Kirk Cousins was never the most mobile QB and an Achilles injury shouldn’t significantly impact his ability to maneuver in the pocket. Fair enough, but if you watch a little bit of these Cousins highlights from the first half of last year, I wonder if you’ll see the same thing I’m seeing… (I’ll wait)… what am I seeing? I’m seeing an old QB, one that never had the strongest arm to begin with, needing to use his full strength and hip rotation to get the ball downfield. A sub-one year achilles injury absolutely impacts his ability there, and if the mobility hit affects his ability to maintain passing lanes in a collapsing pocket? This could quickly go from an above average QB to something far closer to Desmond Ridder.
The NFC South is once again an absolute clusterfuck, but I can’t say I have any confidence that the Falcons will be a good football team. The good news is, they have by far the easiest schedule in the NFL and all they need to do is outperform the other three shit teams in division, so say hello to your 2024-24 NFC South division winning Falcons! Congrats y’all!
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Falcons under 9.5 wins +128 seems too good to pass up. Even better if you can find a way to parlay that with them to win the division at -145
Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
Projected Finishes: #8 Offense, #5 Defense
I didn’t trust the Ravens’ vibe last year and that didn’t turn out well for me. Will I learn, change my ways, stop going on completely arational gut feelings with this team? Absolutely fucking not! I have the same vibes this year baby, so we’re doubling down!
In order to give me some time to pull a logical case out of my ass for why this team will be significantly worse this year, let’s hear from my Baltimore friend, Aaron.
“I don’t feel great about the coaching staff exodus, but the Ravens pride on defense is strong, and I think that the dense will figure it out enough for our offense to get ahead. The defense is going to be on the field a ton though, and it could be a year where opposing offenses score a lot of points on paper just trying to catch up to Ravens leads.
I do worry about Lamar’s health with the guy always being sick and dropping a ton of weight, but this offense should be one of the highest scoring offenses with a balanced set of weapons in Andrews, Likely, Flowers, Bateman, Henry, and Hill.
Stoke is high. I am stoked.”
-Aaron F.
Okay, so the first thing I don’t trust about this Ravens team is the coaching exodus (thanks for the hint, Aaron). I have a really hard time believing that losing Mike Macdonald, the runner up for last year’s Assistant Coach of the Year Award (yes, this does exist) and the architect of the current defensive scheme sweeping the league, doesn’t matter, despite the Ravens promoting one of his chief lieutenants, Zach Orr, to DC. In addition, the Ravens also lost their DL coach Anthony Weaver (now DC for the Dolphins) and DB coach Dennard Wilson (now DC for the Titans). I’m a big Macdonald fan and the DL + DB play was kinda key to the Ravens having the 12th best defense in the history of DVOA. Concerning!
On top of that, the Ravens completely overhauled their offensive line, losing 3/5 starters in FA, with LG John Simpson (Jets), RG Kevin Zeitler (Lions), and RT Morgan Moses (Jets) all finding new homes after composing a majority of ESPN’s 9th best pass block and 5th best run block win rate OL. There are talented guys coming in to fill the void - rookie RT Roger Rosengarten being of particular intrigue - but this is not going to be the same mauling Ravens offensive line of years past after going from LG Simpson (330 lbs), RG Zeitler (315 lbs), and RT Moses (335 lbs) to LG Andrew Vorhees (310 lbs), RG Ben Cleveland (360 lbs), and RT Roger Rosengarten (300 lbs). The good news is that this appears to be intentional, a plan coming to fruition after the Ravens drafted “undersized but mobile” C Tyler Linderbaum back in 2022, but this much change is definitely worrying.
Finally, the Ravens added RB Derrick Henry in FA, who, although not the terrifying myth of a man he was a few years ago, still has the juice to lead an elite rushing offense. And that myth could very well come back into the fold this year if the Ravens OL comes together. Even if they don’t, it won’t be hard to improve upon the “They’re really that bad?” pile of dogshit Henry had to run behind in Tennessee the last two years:
Titans yards before contact the last four years: 2023: 0.9 yards (30th); 2022: 1.0 (30th); 2021: 1.3 (18th); 2020: 1.5 (13th)
Ravens average yards before contact the last four years: 1.8 yards (1st)
On offense, TE Mark Andrews is back to move the chains, Zay Flowers should be better in year 2, and Rashod “I can’t believe I drafted him again this year” Bateman and his 3rd best Fantasy Points separation score are all here to keep the passing game humming (I still believe, Rashod!). Lamar did drop 10-15 lbs from last year (and 25 lbs vs his 2022 weight) in order to improve his speed in the open field, which sounds nice on paper, but is a huge red flag IMO. Lamar is still the NFL’s most dangerous QB in space, but without that extra 10 - 25 lbs of padding, the alarm bells are going off and telling me to be concerned about Lamar staying healthy all year, particularly with potential offensive line (growing) pains.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Derrick Henry leads the league with 18 rushing TDs (+600), but fails to finish as a top 10 PPR RB in fantasy, as non-goal line touches are more evenly distributed between him and Justice Hill (and eventually Keaton Mitchell), and Henry returns to his pre-2022 role of not being involved in the passing game, catching < 20 passes on the year
Buffalo Bills (9-8)
Projected Finishes: #3 Offense, #16 Defense
Josh Allen is the 2nd best QB in the league, and I really don’t think the 3rd guy (^) is particularly close. Allen has a chance to have a monster year and, should the rest of the team give him enough support to win the division and 10+ games, will be deserving of an MVP trophy come February… It’s nice to dream, isn’t it, Buffalo fans?
Let’s turn our attention to resident Bills fan (and my favorite, absolutely jacked, Prince Charming-looking mother fucker… friend?) for a word on his team that can’t stop letting him down:
“If nothing else, the 2024 Buffalo Bills are going to be exciting.
On defense, we lost our two starting safeties and Matt Milano is injured once again. First year DC Bobby Babich has his work cut out with this ragtag defense, headlined by undrafted rookie Joe Andreesson, who is from Buffalo, living an underdog story and making the 53 man roster. Hopefully, he can fill the open LB spot opposite Terrell Bernard and our new safety duo of Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp can do just enough to keep this defense afloat.
As for the offense, it’s difficult to not look at the offense and wonder what the plan is after this summer’s shakeup, losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. On paper, the offense doesn’t look nearly as threatening, but a much more diverse offense is on the table. With the consistency and reliability of Kincaid, a should-be breakout season for Shakir, and a fresh athletic presence in Coleman, I can’t wait to see what Joe Brady whips up. Everyone will eat on this offense - they have to.
What I’m saying is, this is our year.”
-Eric K.
Well done, Eric; covered basically everything I wanted to cover!
I agree about the offense - I have them putting on a Josh Allen-led show this year, scoring the 3rd most points in the league - but I fear that this defense might need a year in the tank to regroup (and fix the cap sheet) before this team can be a serious contender again.
This is a dangerous season for HC Sean McDermott, not as dangerous as those brave boys from Kandahar, Afghanistan, but dangerous nonetheless. Bills ownership seems clear-eyed about the need to take a step back to get the house in order, but another first round exit for this squad will inevitably lead to an evaluation of whether McDermott is the guy to take this team all the way. Assuming this season isn’t some kind of football tragedy, I think firing a very very good coach like McDermott would be fucking moronic, but sometimes a team just needs to change things up.
Good luck, Josh. We’re rooting for you!
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Josh Allen finishes as the #1 QB in fantasy - his 4th in 5 years - and wins Offensive Player of the Year (+3500), but the defense is bad enough in big spots to warrant a change, with Sean McDermott and the team parting ways at the end of the season. Bill Belichick takes over after wrapping up his year-long “look at me: I’m human!” media blitz, thrilled by the opportunity to coach a running QB (that has a 6-2 record vs him without TB12) and destroy Bob Kraft’s Patriots 2x a year
Carolina Panthers (7-10)
Projected Finishes: #25 Offense, #31 Defense
I think the Carolina Panthers - or maybe just the entire NFC South? - are going to be impossible to predict + handicap on a week to week basis this year. I am quite bullish on their offense turning a corner after whatever the fuck that was last year, with new HC Dave Canales hoping to make it a threepeat after spending the last two seasons successfully rehabilitating Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield in Tampa.
The foundation of my Panthers hope comes down to one pair of stats.
Stat #1: last season, Bryce Young was the most accurate QB in the NFL when throwing to open WRs; it just so happened that he had the worst WRs in the league at getting open.
Stat #2: newly acquired WR Diontae Johnson was the #1 WR in the league at getting open last year, and has been in the top 5 each of the last three seasons.
With that pairing alone, the Panthers offense is going to make a giant leap from the dregs of the league.
Outside of that though, the team is shaky at pretty much every position group, but my respect and expectations for HC Dave Canales can overcome that enough to get this team to 7 wins. Oh, and they play in the NFC South, a division primarily known for being an absolute train-wreck every single season Tom Brady wasn’t in Tampa Bay to harvest adrenochrome from Cuban kids trying to raft their way onto US soil.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Bryce, I believe in all 180 pounds of you, and that with the help of your new HC, you can take a page from the likes of Jared Goff and find yourself being discussed as an above average QB. With how bad last year looked, I’m calling that just “bold” enough
Chicago Bears (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #16 Offense, #11 Defense
Rookie QB Caleb Williams is a generational QB prospect and those flashes will show up early and often this season. Buy the hype there. What I can’t buy into is all of the swirling #1 pick + the Bears are back + Hard Knocks hype that’s boosting this team to a Vegas win total of 8.5 wins (over -160).
Here’s why:
I am no longer a Shane Waldron believer after seeing how he built the Seahawks offense last year. The guy refused to use JSN further than 5 yards down the field and just didn't put Geno in positions to succeed every week;
His boss, HC Matt Eberflus, is supposedly good at coaching defenses, but failed to do anything remotely impressive until the last 6-7 games of last season;
I think the Bears are going to run the ball a ton this year, not only to protect their new QB, but also because I don't exactly trust the offensive line to pass block. They currently have three RBs on the roster - D’Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson - that are maybe, slightly above replacement level talents; and finally, the most important
I think Caleb is going to struggle a bit this season. There's the matter of him growing out of his tendency to break the pocket early, likely leading to sacks and other negative plays, but more importantly, this is going to be the first time Caleb has ever had to play in cold, cold weather, having grown up in DC and gone to school in Oklahoma + LA. We’ve seen that adjustment before… it ain’t pretty
The thing keeping the Bears in contention to make the playoffs is the obvious WR talent (regardless of how chubby Keenan Allen may or may not be) and how easy their schedule is outside their four brutal games vs the Lions + Packers.
Dominant Bears football is coming and coming soon, but not this year, and probably not with this coaching staff.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Here’s a fun one that I didn’t touch on above: despite Caleb Williams being that generational QB prospect, I think his career is going to be very similar to Russell Wilson. Every time I watch Caleb talk or interact with his teammates, it feels so… what’s the word? Manicured. You can see the gears turning as he tries to figure out what to say, whether it’s in response to a question from the press, going through film with his coach, or talking on the sidelines like below
It’s a little too familiar, and reminds me of the deluge of hate that Russell Wilson got once he got out of Seattle. Just something to keep an eye out for
Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)
Projected Finishes: #6 Offense, #15 Defense
We all know what this team is capable of with a healthy Joe Burrow. The Bengals season comes down to two questions in my mind:
Can the offensive line keep Burrow upright and healthy for 17+ games?; and
Can the defense return to form (after a bottom 5 showing in 2023) with the additions of DT Sheldon Rankins, S Geno Stone, and the return of S Vonn Bell?
If both of these questions are “yes”, then this team, blessed with a top 3 easiest schedule after finishing 4th in their division last year, can go all the way.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The defense mostly gets back to pre-2023 form, but the secondary continues to cause problems throughout the season, eventually leading to a playoff loss on the road at Arrowhead, as Mahomes finally gets his revenge for the somewhat baffling AFC Championship Game loss in 2022 (I didn’t have much for this team, sorry)
Cleveland Browns (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #23 Offense, #2 Defense
Each of the last two years, I’ve refused to dedicate more than 100 words to the Browns writeup, and let’s check and see - yes, it appears that Deshaun Watson is still on the team - so we’re not stopping now.
The defense should dominate again, although by the end of last year, the league did appear to find some cracks in Jim Schwartz’s man-heavy defensive scheme, particularly when the Browns were away from home.
The offense rests on the “I had season ending surgery 10 months ago but this shit still isn’t right” shoulders of Deshaun Watson, or as I called him my Fantasy Preview “the gold-plated piece of shit at the center of the worst trade in NFL history". Backup QB Jameis Winston is probably going to get some time to do his best Joe Flacco impression, but I doubt lightening strikes twice there, so the Browns fall off and drop an additional three games vs last season’s impressive 11-6 campaign.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
HC Kevin Stefanski parts ways with the Browns after ownership picks Watson over one of the best coaches in the league
Dallas Cowboys (10-9)
Projected Finishes: #5 Offense, #9 Defense
Holy shit do I have a treat for you on this team breakdown. I might not even say anything after this, it’s that fucking good. Okay, you ready? Give a warm welcome to professional editor and Dallas sadboi extraoenaire, Adam R!
This team is all frosting, no cake. Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, Daron Bland, Zack Martin, CeeDee, Dak - enough big names to sell hope and push for prime-time TV slots. But underneath it all, as always, is a complete disregard for depth and balance.
This is what life is like following the Cowboys - I won’t say “fan”, because why do that to yourself - for the past 30(!) years: you’re watching the same street race end in a fiery explosion over and over. Between each run, there are always tweaks - a muffler here, a brake pad there - nothing of substance that would make an actual difference. Groundhogs Day with an appetite for twisted metal. The man behind the wheel? The root cause? His refusal to remove himself makes this whole exercise pointless.
There’s only one thing saving this team from it’s inevitable .500 season of disappointment: a 17-game schedule
-Adam R.
I disagree with my friend Adam, but this team has limited depth after their superstars and is walking into a very obvious lame-duck season should their playoff struggles continue. Things could get ugly.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
CeeDee Lamb to have the most regular season receiving yards (+800). He’s the only show in town after this team essentially gave up on running the ball with their signing of Dalvin “washed for two years” Cook
Denver Broncos (7-10)
Projected Finishes: #23 Offense, #27 Defense
Just like the Panthers above, this team is going to have some serious ups and downs on a week to week basis, albeit a bit less extreme due to the established talent on the Broncos roster.
I initially wanted to write this team off, having just looked at their impressively unimpressive collection of WRs. But then you go a level deeper: remind yourself that this terrible team went 7-4 to close the year, revisit what you wrote about Bo Nix back in April, you think fondly about Drew Brees’ receding hairline, and come back to the fact that Sean Payton took a team quarterbacked by Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemien, and Taysom Hill to a 9-8 record back in 2021. With all that in mind, you realize this team is probably going to win at least 7 games. Worst of all, you realize that Bo Nix, a prospect you said had only a 20% chance to succeed in the NFL, found himself in the perfect situation to maximize his talents.
This team has the talent to win some games and annoy the best teams in the league: their offensive line could end the year as top 10 unit, they have a top 2 corner in the league, and there are pieces all over the defense - e.g. LB Baron Browning, LB Nik Bonitto, CB Ja'Quan McMillian - that could take a meaningful step forward.
At the end of the day it comes down to this: love him or hate him, Sean Payton got 8 wins out of a decrepit Russell Wilson last season. You really think he can’t beat his Vegas win total of 5.5 games with his handpicked rookie QB?
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Bo Nix to win OROY (+1100) isn’t terrible, but let’s give a fantasy prediction for the Broncos: both RB Javonte Williams and RB Jaleel McLaughlin end the season as top 25 RBs (PPR) on a combined 180 targets as Bo Nix dink and dunks his way to an average offense.
Detroit Lions (13-4)
Projected Finishes: #6 Offense, #8 Defense
I have a lot of Lions fans in my life as you may recall from the previous years’ write-ups, so let’s hand off to them before I wrap things up.
“Interior defensive line massively improved and potential to be one of best in leagues (DJ Reader + Alim McNeill leap)”
-Rob V.
“The reason the rise of the Lions was so pervasive and why it has staying power is because they have the best offensive line in the NFL and they love grinding down opponents late in games. Sewell is somehow underrated and a future Hall of Famer.”
-Collin S.
“First, I’d like to be on the record saying that the Lions will not lose at home this year. Ford Field will be the loudest, most raucous environment to play in, and opponents will be frustrated with the noise all year. That paired with a Hutch DPOY season will make it a doozy in Motown. Next, we are renaming the city JAMO-town because it’s his time. Lastly, look to see our special teams take a huge leap behind my guy Jalen Reeves-Maybin, who is the top ST and player/coach in the league.”
-Jake M.
“Super Bowl or bust”
-Jacob S.
That last line really is all you need to know. This Lions team has the talent - by my eval, the best roster in the league - and coaching necessary to go all the way. It’s a wild concept considering how incompetent this franchise was the last three decades.
For most of the summer, I had the Lions winning the Super Bowl. The combination of the offensive line, coaching, and rising talents across both offense and defense gave me confidence that they could bring it home.
But something changed when I started mapping out the playoffs. I had no problems having the Lions march their way through the NFC, but once the lights got brightest and this team had to face the elite of the elite from the AFC, or in this case, Mahomes + the Chiefs, I lost the ability to see “Jared Goff, Super Bowl winner” as a reasonable outcome. He’s a damn good QB, but I couldn’t bring myself to crown a QB that has such an obvious weakness in his game, namely, Goff’s lack of mobility and poor play when he’s not kept clean.
A Super Bowl run would still be a dream come true for this team and its fans, but this year, I think they come up just short.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Couple I really like: Aiden Hutchinson DPOY (+1400) now that he has proper help providing pressure and Terrion Arnold DROY (+1400) as DC Aaron Glenn finally gets to play man coverage, and Arnold takes full advantage of the Lions’ defensive leap
Green Bay Packers (11-6)
Projected Finishes: #8 Offense, #6 Defense
Speaking of best rosters in the league, the Packers could be holding that honor coming into next season if their young guys develop. This team has potential studs all over the roster, with too many young WRs to count and nearly double digit 1st round picks playing on the defensive side of the ball.
At the end of the day the Packers’ season will come down to three things:
Was Jordan Love’s 2nd half of the 2023 season real (because the 1st half of the season was rough)?;
Will the newly formed offensive line gel enough to provide for the run game and protect Jordan Love long enough to hit what should be wide open WRs all over the field?; and
Can new DC Jeff Hafley - known for running a ton of single-high man and not known for producing anything close to an elite statistical defense in college - finally get the talent on defense to exceed expectations?
If the answer to 2/3 questions above is a resounding, “Yes”, then this team is in business. I’m predicting we get a “Yes” to all three.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Christian Watson takes his newly 15% bigger right leg and plays 16 games, claiming his spot, alongside Romeo Doubs, as one of the best young receivers in the league.
Houston Texans (12-5)
Projected Finishes: #13 Offense, #4 Defense
Everyone’s favorite “under the radar” Super Bowl contender in the AFC, here come the Texans. I was not a Stroud believer to start the year - why would I be after the Ohio State (boooo!) QB track record the last decade? - but quickly got on board after CJ and the Texans crushed the Jags in Week 3.
Everything is pointing up for the Texans:
They have the most valuable asset in the NFL: an elite QB on a rookie deal;
They have a phenomenally good looking HC in DeMeco Ryans that’s also good at the job… I mean just look at those fucking pecs peaking out to say hello in this photo;
Hold on, let me scroll down a bit so I can focus;
The defense, finally healthy at the end of the year, showed some scary potential, showing the outlines of the no doubt Top 10 defenses that DeMeco presided over in SF, with LB Christian Harris and CB Derek Stingley Jr. providing particularly elite production to close the year;
I could be concerned about the Texans turning over the defensive line that led the league in Yards per RB Carry (3.3 yards), but the Texans added my favorite analytics lineman in DE Denico Autry, a guy that had 11.5 sacks last year, but also (and apologies for being unable to find the exact stat) was the most important, on-paper piece for the Titans defense, with Tennessee having a top 5 run defense with Autry on the field, and a bottom 10 one without (again, sorry); and
The Texans had some terrifically bad injury luck, coming in as 2023’s #1 most injured team, #1 most injured (and funny enough, the #1 most expensive…) offensive line, and the #5 most injured defense, all values that will improve in 2024
There are some warning signals to slow our roll though:
CJ Stroud was historically good as a rookie facing zone coverage, putting up the league’s #1 QBR (73.9) vs zone coverage (and feel free to take a second to appreciate how absurd that is), but only ranked 27th in QBR (38.8) vs man coverage. I imagine that the excellent route-runner and newly added Stefon Diggs may help with that;
RB Joe Mixon may not be that much of an upgrade over Devin Singletary, with, despite Mixon’s more impressive frame, both guys having near identical advanced stats running the ball:
Mixon: -0.06 EPA/rush; 37% Success Rate, 4.0 Yards per Carry; 10.5% Explosive Run Rate; 2.5 Avg Yards After Contact
Singletary: -0.07 EPA/rush; 36% Success Rate, 4.2 Yards per Carry; 10.6% Explosive Run Rate; 2.9 Avg Yards After Contact;
OC Bobby Slowik, who we definitely like and respect, definitely ran the ball too much in neutral situations, running the ball at the 10th highest rate on 1st down (54.6%). I expect this number to drop as he and Stroud get more comfortable, and the Bobby takes a look at the three stud WRs available to throw to; and
The schedule is tough (8th hardest) and significantly harder than last year’s 7th easiest slate of teams. Specifically, this secondary, not great and very injured for most of last year, will have their work cut out for them, having to face the the 12th hardest slate of QBs this year, a far cry from the 2nd easiest slate last year, e.g. the best QB they beat last year was a mostly healthy Joe Burrow in Week 10 and the 2nd best was… Baker in Week 9? Kyler in Week 11? This year, they close the year with games against Tua, Mahomes, Lamar, and Will Levis. Just like that list of four QBs, one of these is way different than the other(s)
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The Texans defense takes the lead, finishing this year as a top 5 defense in the NFL, and being so good as to slow down the offense, leading to underperformance for every Houston fantasy player outside of Tank Dell
Indianapolis Colts (6-11)
Projected Finishes: #18 Offense, #26 Defense
I’m not going to spend a ton of time on the Colts after writing a couple hundred words on why I think Anthony Richardson sucks as a real life and fantasy QB, but here are some additional thoughts:
This WR group is pretty goddamn stacked, with Michael Pittman leading the way (for now), with the trio of 2nd year players Josh Downs + Alec Pierce and rookie AD Mitchell coming in to support. If I am wrong about Richardson not being good at playing QB - did you know that Anthony Richardson, fantasy savior for the year of our lord 2024, has only started in 17 (!!!!) football games since graduating from high school in 2020? There was another guy that had a similarly small number of starts that also got drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft… it was recent? Also had that running QB thing going for him? Gosh, I can’t remember but I feel like that might be a good comparison for Richardson;
The Colts got lucky last year, winning all 7 of their games where they won the turnover battle and losing all 6 when they lost it. Turnovers are flukey and the Colts were tied for the 12th best turnover margin (+2) in 2023;
The defense, although adding the most pro-ready defensive prospect in the draft in UCLA’s DE, significantly outperformed expectations last year, with the team having the 5th most sacks in the NFL (yay!) but only generating the 26th highest pressure rate (ugh!). With the Colts 2023 sack leader DE Samson Ebukam now out of the season after tearing his Achilles, it’s more likely than not that the Colts do not repeat their sack rate > pressure rate outperformance; and lastly,
This schedule is way tougher compared to last year’s cupcake walk in the park, with the Colts shifting from playing the NFC South + AFC North to the NFC North and AFC East - yikes!
Of particular note, the first 2/3 of the season is brutal for the Colts, having to face the following gauntlet through week 12: vs Texans; @Packers; vs Bears; vs Steelers; @Jaguars; @Titans; vs Dolphins; @Texans; @Vikings; vs Bills; @Jets; @Lions
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Anthony Richardson sucks when he’s playing and doesn’t do much of that this year, starting only 12 games and leading the league in interceptions / game when he does. Jonathan Taylor returns to form though, racking up over 1500 all purpose yards behind a top 10 offensive line, finishing as RB3, and reminding us what kind of talent this team can build around once they find a competent QB (AR5, I love you, never change!)
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)
Projected Finishes: #14 Offense, #18 Defense
There are three headlines that give me enough optimism to move the Jags from being the most average team in the NFL (win total of 8.5), to something a little spicier:
As has been talked about to death at this point, Trevor Lawrence had the highest EPA lost to drops last season, with the four dropped / failed toe-tap TD catches vs the Chiefs continuing to bother me (they lost 17-9!!!!!)
Lawrence certainly made his mistakes last year, but he had four not insignificant injuries and was throwing his default “high and hard” pass to incompatible receivers like Calvin Ridley. Two years ago, the Jags were 10th in offensive DVOA with Larence throwing to Christian Kirk (due for a bounceback year), Evan Engram, Zay Jones, and the corpse of Marvin Jones. Don’t tell me this guy sucks.
In order to better match the kind of throws that Lawrence likes to make, the team brought in Gabe Davis as a FA and the NCAA’s best tracker of the football, drafting rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr out of LSU. Both of these guys are 6’2+ and very comfortable catching a hard-thrown ball up high. Both guys should have their moments this year, as Trevor gets back to throwing the ball 10+ yards downfield to receivers that will actually catch the damn ball; and
The Jags stole DC Ryan Nielsen from the Falcons, fresh of his success of turning a very mediocre roster into a good defense, transforming Atlanta’s defense from a bottom three unit by EPA/play and Success Rate in 2022 into the 9th and 4th highest rated teams in 2023, respectively. The Jags were top 10 in Defensive DVOA last season and the talent is there for that to continue.
All of that combined gets us an above average NFL team in 2024, one that won’t scare any of the big boys in the AFC, but can be good enough to make the playoffs and perhaps even win a game…
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The Jags make the playoffs and… come nowhere close to actually winning a game, are you fucking high? It’s Doug “maybe I should’ve retired with Nick Foles” Pederson for god’s sake! Trevor Lawrence over 21.5 passing TDs (-120) looks like a lock to me though
Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
Projected Finishes: #1 Offense, #12 Defense
I have a friend named Kyle and Kyle is a Chiefs fan. He grew up in Michigan but one side of his family is from Kansas, so he claims things like the Chiefs, Jayhawks, and Royals as “his teams”. He also can be quite insufferable when his teams have any sort of expectations, as he can be quite the nervous Nellie even when things are never in doubt. I’ve experienced this first hand many times, most recently when the Chiefs won their 2nd consecutive Super Bowl vs the 49ers, a game that was never in doubt. He gets a paragraph of me shitting on him because the pro team he cares about the most won the last two Super Bowls and is heading towards a third.
Anyways, here’s Kyle on the 2024 - 25 Chiefs,
“1. I think we have one of the more underrated linebacking corps in the NFL, especially if (big if) Nick Bolton can stay healthy for a full season. You and I both know Drue Tranquill fucks.
2. I love the potential for our passing offense early in the season even with Hollywood injured. Mainly because - no surprise - I’d love to preserve the number of hits per game Xavier Worthy takes as he adjusts to the NFL.
3. Obviously super worried about our second corner slot with L'Jarius Sneed gone. I understand why we let him leave, and Trent McDuffie is a top 5 corner in the league at this point [lol WHAT], but Joshua Williams at CB2 doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence, despite being in the Spags system for two full years, going on three.
4. Not that we will need it, but it’s so nice that Mahomes has an actual backup this year. That said, I still miss Chad Henne.”
-Kyle T.
I can’t tell you how many of my conversations with Kyle revolve around the status of LB Nick Bolton. You’d think the guy was a prime Ray Lewis with the amount of timeshare he takes up. Anyways, begrudgingly, I agree with pretty much everything Kyle said, but if I have to be quick about it:
The offense is going back to the Tyreke Hill days of effectiveness, with the Chiefs easily having the #1 offense in the NFL, while
The defense, although still excellent, is going to take a step back after a dominant 2023 campaign, with the (necessary) loss of CB L'Jarius Sneed removing much of the defensive flexibility this secondary had last year, with DC Spags able to press up to three opposing WRs at a time without any fear or downside
I’m not sure how to feel about this whole thing. On the one hand, it sucks that I feel compelled to pick Mahomes and the Chiefs to make and take another Super Bowl. On the other hand, one thing I care about and really try to focus on is appreciating greatness while it’s happening - greatness like Taylor Swift and the Eras Tour, sorryyyyy - so the fact that this Chiefs team could potentially make history in threepeating, all while continuing to build Mahomes’ case vs Brady as the GOAT? Compelling stuff.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Over Mahomes everywhere: Mahomes over 4225.5 passing yards (-112); Mahomes over 32.5 passing TDs (-112); Mahomes to throw 40+ TDs (+450)
Las Vegas Raiders (5-12)
Projected Finishes: #31 Offense, #30 Defense
If you can’t tell by the projections or the record, I have ZERO confidence in this Raiders team and I don’t particularly want to talk about them either, so let’s be brief:
The Raiders offensive line is going to be fantastic at run blocking, so if Zamir White can actually produce like he did at the end of last season, he’s a great bet to blow expectations out of the water;
Unfortunately, the line is going to be not so good at pass blocking, something they’ll need to do quite a bit of because;
I don’t believe in this defense at all. Sure they gave some help to Maxx Crosby by signing one of the best Defensive Tackles, Christian Wilkins, but this team was bad against the run, giving up 4.2 YpC (20th) to RBs, and only managed to finish in the top half of the league on some pass defense metrics because they got to play seven backup QBs to close the year; and finally,
I really don’t believe in Antonio Pierce and think he’s basically a lock to be fired at the end of the season after Gardner Minshew, after benefiting last season from a legitimately good coach that could scheme him to success, absolutely shits the bed
When the Raiders can stay in a neutral game script, they will find success with the ground game and can win a couple games. I just don’t think they’re going to be able to stay all the neutral.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The Raiders finish the year with a top three 12 personnel usage rate, playing through their two TEs (rookie Brock Bowers + 2nd year TE Michael Mayer) that were excellent weapons in the pass game back in college
Los Angeles Chargers (7-10)
Projected Finishes: #18 Offense, #16 Defense
I had already accepted that Jim Harbaugh was leaving my beloved Michigan Wolverines several months in advance of the Chargers announcement. Although bittersweet, the man had accomplished what he set out to do nearly a decade ago, bringing Ohio State tears, respect, and a championship back to Ann Arbor. Now it was time for him to take care of a 2nd tier love of mine, the Los Angeles Chargers.
This is a year that will be defined by growing pains, some of which will show up as soon as this Sunday when rookie RT Joe Alt has to attempt to block All Pro DE Maxx Crosby. But these pains will be a sign of a complete overhaul of the Chargers organization, from the expectations of the non-football personnel (one of which is my cousin, so I promise I’m not just blowing smoke out my ass here), to the way they’re building to team from the trenches up, all the way up to trying to win games without having any talent at WR. It’s going to be a couple years for Harbaugh and new GM Joe Hortiz to work their magic, but this fanbase, of which I make up approximately 0.62%, has a lot of patience after all these years of pain.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Read my fantasy piece for the full breakdown, but I think JK Dobbins stays healthy, takes the lead RB role, and has his best year as a pro
Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Projected Finishes: #18 Offense, #25 Defense
The Rams blew Vegas’ (and my) expectations out of the water last year, beating their Vegas total by 4 games on the back of Puka Nacua’s record-smashing rookie season, a healthy and career best passing season from Matt Stafford, and a surprisingly effective youth movement defense built around the best defensive player of the last decade. GM Les Snead took an intentional step back from the team’s stars + scrubs and “Fuck them picks” strategy of the previous four years, and somehow came out on the other end with 10 wins, the 2nd youngest team in the NFL, and a 9,532-person fanbase buzzing with hope and excitement.
Hope they enjoyed the last 6 months because things are about to get a bit harder, baby!! The Rams were the healthiest team in the league last year, so regression is likely coming, but the real headline is obviously Aaron Donald retiring. The Rams will attempt to replace his impact with two rookie DLs out of Florida State - DE Jared Verse and DT Braden Fiske - but there is a massive, potentially defense-ruining hole in the middle that cannot be overstated. I also wasn’t particularly high on either Verse or Fiske coming out of FSU, as the former couldn’t consistently produce when he faced higher levels of competition and Fiske, although 5th in the ACC in pressure rate when lined up inside, doesn’t exactly have the length and/or strength necessary to succeed against the run early one.
Now this is where the defensive projection gets tough for the Rams. First of all, the Rams are expected to play a significantly tougher In by far the most shocking 53 man roster move, the Rams traded 4th year outside linebacker Ernest Jones, with Jared Verse expected to spend the majority of his time at OLB instead of DE. Right now we’re in the dark when it comes to reasons Snead made this move, but on paper it’s a wild move out of the Rams. Jones’ development was key to the Rams’ defense overachieving last year, with his top 10 run + pass defense PFF grades amongst LBs anchoring the 2nd level behind Donald. Perhaps Jones’ knee injury and the Rams lack of interest in a extension led to this trade, but you’re swapping 500 snaps of top 10 OLB play for a rookie that had a below average PFF coverage grade (59.1) last season… concerning!
Turning to the offense, there’s a lot to like. The offensive line could be a top 5 unit in the league with the growth of 2nd year guys C Steve Avila + LT Alaric Jackson and the FA addition of former Lions Pro Bowler LG Jonah Jackson, but recent injuries are putting that into question. With a healthy Matt Stafford and at least one of Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp out there though, this passing offense should continue to hum, with undersized bulldog RB Kyren Williams providing elite rushing production, albeit against the #1 easiest collection of 2023 run defenses.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The Rams win 10 games, but a defense that so outperformed expectations last year comes back to earth, costing the Rams a key Week 18 game at home vs the Seahawks
Miami Dolphins (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #2 Offense, #29 Defense
Miami is going to be able to score the ball, even with the offensive line being in flux, having lost C Connor Williams (Seahawks) and RG Robert Hunt (Panthers). The Shanahan tree guys like HC Mike McDaniel are particularly good at limiting the impact of offensive line weakness, but 2/5 is still 2/5, even with QB Tua Tagovailoa barely holding onto the ball. The WR combo of Tyreke Hill + Jaylen Waddle is stupid fast and the run game could be even better than last year’s top 5 unit after adding future superstar rookie RB Jaylen Wright out of Tennessee.
The more concerning thing is their defense, which lost key players at all three levels. Of particular concern is the front 7 for the Dolphins, coming in after finishing 3rd in sacks and 4th in pressure rate in 2023. Christian Wilkins is a huge loss at DT. The guy played over 80% of all snaps, with that number being even lower than it could’ve been due to the Dolphins’ multiple blowouts against Denver (53% of snaps), Carolina (71%), and the Jets 2x (64%, 72%). For context, that 80% number was the 4th highest snap count % among DTs, only trailing Derrick Brown (89%), Michael Hoecht (85%), and Aaron Donald (81%). Good company to keep. On top of that, two other key defensive pieces are recovering from late season injuries, with both OLBs Bradley Chubb (tore his ACL Week 17) and Jaelan Phillips (tore his Achilles Week 12) in recovery.
And by far the most concerning thing about the Dolphins is how bad they were against quality teams last season. Miami dominated teams that missed the playoffs last year, going 10-1. This 6 games vs 2023 playoff teams? Little different, as Miami went 1-5 in those games and got collectively outscored by a total of 91 points. The bad news? This year, the Dolphins are slated to play 10 teams that finished with a winning record last year, 9 of which are projected to do so again this year and 0 of which count the hopefully competent New York Jets. Miami will need to figure out how to win against the better teams in the league if they’re hoping to see a game past Week 18 this year… I don’t have a ton of confidence.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
A fantasy take for you: the Dolphins finish the year with two Top 25 WRs and three Top 40 RBs, something I haven’t check has been done before, but probably hasn’t been done before
Minnesota Vikings (5-12)
Projected Finishes: #29 Offense, #20 Defense
I sure was looking forward to seeing what Michigan great JJ McCarthy could do out there with Justin Jefferson, but instead we get Sam Darnold. What a let down! What could’ve been a fascinating developmental year is now a year in stasis, useful in allowing GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to evaluate as many young players as possible, but otherwise unimportant and uninteresting to the rest of the league.
The Brian Flores-led defense was quite whacky last year, so that’s a potential point of intrigue. Overall, the Vikings were last in the league in man coverage rate (7%) and on 3rd down, got even crazier, acting as the NFL’s #1 wildcard, leading the league in their usage of both Cover 2 (28%) and Cover 0 (18%), the latter 18% being 3x league average. A couple young guys to check in on - e.g. rookie DE Dallas Turner, CB Mekhi Blackmon - but overall, the Vikings are just a whacky, fairly uninteresting rebuilding team to check in on halfway through the year.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Here’s some juice though: Justin Jefferson ends the year as the #1 WR in fantasy despite the Vikings’ poor offensive production, as J.J. dominates nearly 35% of targets and has a year of just showing off
New England Patriots (3-14)
Projected Finishes: #32 Offense, #18 Defense
This team sucks and until Drake Maye gets the starting gig, they’re going to be borderline unwatchable, outside of Maye and some potentially fun rookie WR talent. I ain’t wasting my time with this shit.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
And I ain’t wasting my time here either. This Pats preview can be my Mulligan
New Orleans Saints (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #14 Offense, #13 Defense
Even though I know that Derek Carr has only been paired with Dennis Allen and the Saints for one season, I’m truly exhausted thinking about having to write anything about the mediocrity expected out of New Orleans.
The offense was disjointed last year under longtime OC Pete Carmichael, and particularly shit the bed when Carr was playing through an AC joint sprain Weeks 3 - 5, letting out an additional, gentle, understated shart in Weeks 10, 13, and 14 when Carr aggravated the shoulder once more. In comes new OC Klint Kubiak to change the sheets. Obviously the man has a good last name and gets the Shanahan bump from last year’s time as SF’s passing game coordinator (a role that does not get capitalized in the Steinberg style guide, I guess?), but with Carr at the helm, there’s only so much good he can do.
As for the defense, another year has passed and the talent is the same, just one year older, with the defense coming into 2024 as the 2nd oldest, snap-weighted unit in the league. The Saints secondary is shockingly deep, with three vets + rookie CB Kool-Aid McKinstry all able to play above average defense outside. As of right now though, Alontae Taylor is set to play nickel, and let me tell you, he is going to get destroyed week in and week out. PFF has him as their 120th ranked corner out of 127, and even that may be too generous.
At the end of the day, there’s only one question that needs to be asked: they’re still coached by Dennis Allen, right? So long as the answer is “Yes”, the Saints will stay below .500.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Chris Olave has his best season as a pro, finally staying healthy enough to reclaim the promise of his rookie campaign, finishing the season with career highs in receptions, yards, and TDs
New York Giants (5-12)
Projected Finishes: #22 Offense, #20 Defense
A truly mediocre team in a holding pattern while they wait for Daniel Jones’ contract to roll off the books. I do like Brian Daboll quite a bit, although after all that Ozempic, sorry, “pilates”, I do fear he’s kinda running into the skinny Jonah Hill problem, aka a big hit to Brian’s likability and potentially, ability to keep his job should this season flame out.
The offensive line can’t possibly be worse than it was last year, so that’s some good news. And the WR corps should, if healthy, never be more pitiful than last year’s collection of undersized, below replacement slot guys there to support Darius Slayton getting in some cardio. Nabers is going to feel, well, it’s probably going to feel very similar to when Odell Beckham Jr showed up, so I’m sure we’ll all be hearing about that from the NY media.
On defense, there’s definitely something brewing here, particularly on the defensive line, but I’m very confident in saying that this year’s secondary is going to feel a lot like last year’s secondary: really bad.
There is some hope around the corner though, fear not Giants fans! Just one more year and you can draft some other plain-looking white QB from a Tier 2 college program.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Malik Nabers is going to catch a ton of balls this year, but this one isn’t a nice prediction… at some point in the next two years, Malik Nabers is going to tear something and have a season ending injury from playing on the MetLife Stadium turf. The guy is too fast, too explosive, too quick, and too slight to be running on that injury-drenched, god awful turf, but that’s NY football for ya!
New York Jets (11-6)
Projected Finishes: #25 Offense, #1 Defense
Two years ago, I said the Jets would be the worst team in the league, with my 32nd ranked head coach Bobby Saleh leading the team to the 32nd ranked offense and 32nd ranked defense. The defense crushed and the Jets won 5 more games than my 2-15 projection. Last year, I said that I didn’t have a good feel for this team, but that, “the combo of the really tough schedule, shaky offensive line, and a gut feeling that playing at Metlife stadium is going to crush this team on the injury front is leading me to doubt this team”. How’s that for a fucking call?
The offense was as bad as it comes. Every number reflected what your eyes, bleeding, told you: the Jets had the fewest yards per drive in the NFL; the worst 3rd down offense; the worst redzone offense; and, the cherries on top, the most penalties and the 6th most injured roster.
And yet despite that prediction coming true, this team, with the worst QB play the NFL has seen in years, went 7-10, with cupcake wins against Russell Wilson, Tommy DeVito, Sam Howell, and Bailey Zappe, as well as teaser killer wins against Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and CJ Stroud. There is zero reason that this 6th most injured, 4-8 team with nothing to play for should’ve closed the year 3-2, and yet they did. Bobby Saleh certainly isn’t a great coach - his end of game management will cost them a game this year, I’m sure of it - but the fact that he managed to keep consecutive Zach Wilson-led Jets teams motivated enough to produce 7 wins and top 5 defenses is noteworthy and impressive.
Now onto this year. The Jets are blessed with the #4 easiest schedule and the 9th best rest advantage on the year. They’re moving on from Zach Wilson and onto a 40 year old Aaron Rodgers coming off a Week 1-torn achilles. Even if Rodgers is as bad as he was with a thumb injury in 2022, the improvement there cannot be overstated. Moving from 2023 Wilson to 2022 (injured) Rodgers would net the following improvements: 33rd sack rate to 12th; 33rd success rate to 24th; and 35th in EPA / play to 25th. Add that up and this team can easily win 10 games, and I fully expect them to.
Let’s close things out with a word from my sister’s boyfriend, JP, a lifelong, diehard Jets fans that has finally been granted a leave of absence from his suicide watch:
“Real Jets fans never have to worry about being overly-optimistic. Nevertheless, barring the impossible - the same “impossible” that befell us last year on our first drive of the season - this team will put up offensive numbers we haven’t seen since the Fitzmagic run in 2015. That’s not to say we are stacked in the passing game, but a completely restocked O-line with depth at tackle should help remedy the protection issues that have plagued us for so many years. If healthy, and if Allen Lazard can become a semblance of his 2021/2022 self, the pass catching group is much better than it’s getting credit for. It’s hard not to get excited.
Ironically, it’s the defense that I find myself getting more and more anxious over as we approach Week 1. As fans of this dogshit franchise, we aren’t treated to much pleasure, but last year, we were absolutely spoiled by cohesive, high-level play on all three levels, all culminating in several defensive master classes vs elite QBs. We all know the hokey-pokey, symbiotic nature of an NFL defense. We all know what pressure does for the back end, and the Eagles SURELY know how integral Bryce Huff was to that pressure. Quinnen Williams will continue to wreak havoc inside, but we still have no idea where the outside rush will come from. Regression seems imminent, and the degree of that regression depends on if this staff can continue to develop UDFA’s into situational studs upfront.
-JP T
It’s nice to see that even with all the optimism surrounding the Jets, the pain and decades of disappointment still shine through ❤️
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The Jets finish with the #1 defense in the NFL, buoyed by a finally competent offense that, although unable to score in droves, avoids 3-and-outs
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
Projected Finishes: #12 Offense, #14 Defense
If you follow the NFL at all, you’ve heard plenty about the stakes this season has for the Philadelphia Eagles, so I won’t belabor things. It all comes down to the new OC and DC, just as it did last year. This is what happens when your HC is a figurehead.
Can OC Kellen Moore come in and design an efficient offense, one that, for the first time in Jalen Hurts’ careers, gives him easy, well-designed answers for when the other team throws out a zero blitz?
Can DC Vic Fangio revitalize this defense, taking the existing veterans and seamlessly mixing them with two rookie players in the secondary in CB Quinyon Mitchel and CB/S Cooper DeJean?
It really is as simple as that with this club… can you fix the offense and fix the defense?… Yep, truly as simple as that!
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The team does not fall apart, the OC + DC hires reinvigorate the team, Sirianni keeps his job, Jalen Hurts takes a step up as a passer, and both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith finish as top 25 fantasy WRs
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #30 Offense, #3 Defense
The Iowa of the NFL, the Steelers offense was outgained in 12/17 games yet somehow, somehow won 10(!!) games. The Steelers were 9-2 last year in one possession games, continuing a Pandemic tradition of going 31-11-1 in such games since 2020. Some people baked bread. Some people got fat. Mike Tomlin decided to win 72% of his one score games relying on the 2nd worst QB play in the league (sorry Jets fans)! Just for context and in case you were curious, over the same “since 2020” time period, the Chiefs were 26-12 (68%). Want to go back further? Over the last 7 seasons, the Mike Tomlin Steelers are 51-24-2 in one possession games (66%). The guy is good at what he does.
Enough about all this winning and losing and occasional tying though. I could talk about how my good friend Arthur Smith, perhaps the best real life version of a (mostly hairless) ManBearPig we’ll ever know, is going to generate a top 10 rushing offense out of this crew. Or how Russell Wilson was bad but not that bad last year: good enough to win games the defense hands him gift wrapped and ready to go. Or how the defense has a chance to be special this year.
Instead, I’ll show you the most amazing picture + stat combo, one I’m sure you’ve never seen or heard before…
Yep, that right. I’m the jackass coming here to tell you that the cool ass mother fucker shown above is about to have his first losing season because his QB is Russell Wilson, who is definitely better than a broken down Big Ben, Mitch Trubisky, and Kenny Pickett.
I feel like a fool.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
And I will be, as the Steelers once again win 9 games on the back of a top 3 defense
San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Projected Finishes: #10 Offense, #7 Defense
Holy shit I was excited to fade this team before the contract drama ended. Fading them still may be the right move - with key defensive players returning from late season injuries, CMC pushing a personally unheard of three straight seasons of good health, and the pressure ratcheted up to 11 to beat that sonofabitch Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl - but when the fingers start a typing, the Niners end up with 12 wins.
Want to see how delicate of a mental state 49ers fans are in? Here’s my friend Aks:
“My only thoughts are that Purdy is going to win the MVP and we’re gonna win the Super Bowl”
-Aks N.
“I don’t see how we beat Mahomes, I’m so jealous…
But also imagine how amazing it would be if we win it over him this year…
If we lose to him again I’ll probably cry”
-Aks N.
Now imagine if you’re a George Kittle or Trent Williams, coming back for one more dance after getting your heart ripped out your chest the exact same way (up 10) by the exact same guy (Patrick Mahomes, you may have heard of him). Let’s see if this team can recover.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Brandon Aiyuk finishes as a top 10 fantasy WR, significantly ahead of teammate Deebo Samuel and building on his incredible 2023 campaign. Pain comes early for the Niners this year though, as they miss out on the NFC #1 seed and promptly lose to their division rival Seahawks in the Wild Card Round
Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
Projected Finishes: #11 Offense, #10 Defense
Speaking of them Seahawks, goddamn, I am such a big Mike Macdonald fan! I have more thoughts here, so stay tuned, but for now, know it all comes from a place of love for the new coach that looks like Marco Rubio had sex with “Hide the pain Harold”
(Should I leave it just like that? It really does look just like their lovechild)
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
This is far from a shared backfield and Kenneth Walker III takes advantage, taking a monster workload and finishing as a top 5 RB. Geno returns to form after being dragged down by Shane Waldron’s mediocre game plans, with DK Metcalf taking a leap after cutting out the several bags of candy he’d consume per day
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-11)
Projected Finishes: #28 Offense, #20 Defense
Vegas currently has the Bucs win total set to 7.5, needing to lay -140 on the over. I believe that Vegas is making a key blunder here, forgetting that the starting quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is Baker Mayfield, a man whose career is defined by his signature Mayfield Motors rollercoaster: Baker performs well + media praise Baker; Baker gets injured and/or just starts to suck at the job; the media turns on Baker; Baker hears this, and starts to perform well again. Are you really going to tell me that Baker is done with his favorite ride?
Is Vegas of the belief that Baker’s 14% TD rate (2nd in the league), his 18.0 Yards per Attempt (3rd in the league), and his career highs in completion % and in passing yards, are all sustainable? They must not know that Baker would’ve been 22nd in YpA if you excluded all the dump-offs to RB Rachaad White, or that this year, the Bucs have to play the toughest schedule of defenses when it comes to preventing explosive passes, all without the OC that actually got this performance out of Baker… right?
Yes, the Bucs still have their weapons, yes the offensive line should be better this year, and yes, begrudgingly I will admit that Rachaad White is really damn good at catching the ball out of the backfield, but come on everyone - this is Baker Mayfield we’re talking about here! We know what this guy is! He’s not good!
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Under 7.5 wins +106 is an easy click, but also, Rachaad White loses the starting rushing role to rookie Bucky Irving by Week 10. Definitely getting a prediction mixed up with a desire here, but we’re on the 3rd to last team, give me some slack
Tennessee Titans (6-11)
Projected Finishes: #16 Offense, #23 Defense
I’ll be back for you later tonight. I have thoughts on our very jacked friend, Will Levis…
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Will Levis leads the league in total air yards, connecting downfield with Ridley and Hopkins just enough to build a slightly above average offense
Washington Commies (6-11)
Projected Finishes: #25 Offense, #32 Defense
And I’ll be back for you later tonight too. I have thoughts on our very much not jacked friend, Jayden Daniels…
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Terry McLaurin has a monster season as the only show in town, leading the team across all receiving categories and finishing as WR14 on the season