NFL Week 2 Picks ATS (2024)
Week 2 spread and total picks for every NFL game, with a few prop bets along the way
The most dangerous betting week of the NFL season, everyone is trying to figure out what’s real and what’s not:
Are the Saints still a good defense despite being another year older? Is this offense actually legit after adding Klint Kubiak and going from worst to 1st and 3rd, respectively, on pre-snap motion and play-action rate?
After finishing 30th in rushing YPG allowed the last three years under Brandon Staley, are the Chargers really set up to continue their Week 1 success, finishing #1 in rush defense EPA/play and #1 in rush defense success rate?
Is this DC Ryan Nielson-led Jaguars defense this good after holding Tua to a 35% dropback success rate, his lowest rate in a game since 2022? Is the Browns’ Deshaun Watson, noted piece of shit, about to take his last reps as an NFL starting QB?
We don’t and won’t know the answers to these questions after Week 2, but we’ll certainly act like we do heading into the 2nd most dangerous betting weekend of the year in Week 3.
Speaking of knowing things, (I know how to make a transition and) we know some key trends to consider from Week 2’s past:
In Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are 18-21 SU (46%) and 26-11-2 ATS (70%) since 2014
Games that match: NYG +1.5 at WSH, TEN +3.5 vs NYJ, LV +9 at BAL
The opposite corollary, in Week 2 games between teams that are both 1-0 ATS, the splits also favor the underdog, going 19-26 SU (42%) and 27-17-1 ATS (61%) since 2012
Games that match: DEN +2.5 vs PIT, TB +7.5 at DET, MIN +4.5 vs SF, NO +6.5 at DAL
Teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 have gone 47-28-3 ATS (63%) in Week 2 since 2012
Games that match: CAR +6.5 vs LAC, NYJ -3.5 at TEN, LV +9 at BAL, CLE +3.5 at JAX
Teams that beat their Week 1 point spread by more than 7 points in a non-conference game are 20-10-3 to the under (67%) in Week 2 since 2002
Games that match: NO at DAL o/u 46.5, SF at MIN o/u 46.5, PIT at DEN o/u 36.5 (like we needed a reason to bet that last under…)
And finally, a non-week 2 trend but a good one, when a large majority (more than 63%) of the handle has been on the Over but the total has moved lower throughout the week, betting the under is 59-30 (66%) the last two seasons
Games that match: LAC at CAR o/u 39 (opened 40.5, 72% of money on the over)
Scary trends, many of which go against my first instinct when picking these games. But Danger is my middle name - it actually is… see the name of this blog is a pun, get it? - and we started off the year HOT, going 9-6-1 ATS and 12-4 on totals, so damn the trends and damn the consequences - let’s pick some TD favorites!
Betting Record:
Against the Spread: 9-6-1 (56.3%)
Totals: 12-4 (75.0%)
Prop Bets: 2-4 (33.3%, -2.3 units)
Starred Bets: 4-1 (80.0%)
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Can’t believe this game didn’t go over. Feel better, Tua!
The picks: Bills +2.5, Over 49
Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens
This is a game that the Baltimore of old would use to absolutely steamroll their opponent. They’re coming off a loss, are pretty healthy, and have had another week to organize their offensive line after getting eaten up by Chris Jones and co last Thursday. Oh, and the Raiders are still coached by Antonio Pierce. Here comes a blowout.
The picks: ⭐️ Ravens -8.5 ⭐️ and Over 41.5
Prop Bet: Ravens alt -13.5 (+148), SGP: Ravens ML, Derrick Henry TD, Henry over 74.5 rushing +164
Los Angeles Chargers at Carolina Panthers
God damn it sure is nice to have a competent coaching staff at the helm! The Chargers took a half to get it going last week vs the Raiders, but dominated both sides of the ball in the 2nd and, with a little help from Antonio Pierce punting from 4th and 1 on the Chargers 43 yard line down 6 in the 4th quarter (coward!), easily covered last week’s -3. This week is a little trickier, as this is absolutely a game the Chargers of old would lose or win by 3. On the Panthers side of the ball, I’m going to need another week before I completely rule them out, but Jesus Christ did they look bad last week, now needing to improve without maybe their best overall player in DT Derrick Brown. Let’s take the leap and back the khakis.
The picks: Chargers -5.5 and Under 39
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
Here’s another game that would be an absolute smash spot last year, with the Cowboys dominating mediocre teams routinely at home. The Saints injury report is a bit of mess, potentially missing their best CB Marshon Lattimore, their rookie LT Taliese Fuaga (somewhat key to their excellent OL play last week… well that and the Panthers), DT Khalen Saunders, and LB D’Marco Jackson. On top of that, Dak Prescott has been absolutely elite vs man coverage the past year, and oh would you look at that, the Saints played a top 5 rate of man coverage last week (41%) and last season (32%).
It’s a little scary that this line has remained stuck at -6.5, but the Cowboys are mostly healthy despite missing TE Jake Ferguson, are playing at home, and fundamentally, are the same “bully” team from last year. Give me the Cowboys and the Saints’ lunch money.
The picks: ⭐️ Cowboys -6.5 ⭐️ and Under 46.5
Prop Bet: Cowboys alt -12.5 (+212), CeeDee Lamb anytime TD -125
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
There’s been a narrative this week that the Bucs have played the Lions really tough in their last two meetings. Not sure what games those folks watched last season, but I remember things a little bit differently:
Week 6: Lions 20, Bucs 6 as the Lions outscore the Bucs 10-3 in both halves, holding the Bucs to two FGs and 251 total yards
Divisional Playoffs: Lions 31, Bucs 23 as despite Mike Evans going off vs the shaky Lions’ secondary (8-147-1), the Lions win and cover, even with a garbage time Mike Evans TD and a potentially game tying, last second drive from Baker and co
Perhaps that last playoff drive out of Baker is sticking in people’s minds, but I don’t really see this as much of a contest, with the Bucs having to roll out a full second unit in the secondary after dealing with cluster injuries at the position (CB Josh Hayes, CB Tykee Smith, S Antoine Winfield Jr).
Lions flex on offense and, although Mike Evans has another great game, hold the Bucs offense to less than 20 points.
The picks: Lions -7.5 and Under 51.5
Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers
This should be easy, right? You’re telling me I can get the Colts giving less than a FG and have the pleasure, the unique privilege, of betting against Malik Willis, a man who may be the worst backup QB in the league and only joined the team a few weeks ago?
Then the dark voices call: “Why is this only -2.5?”
Is it cause Jordan Love is still “Questionable”? He’s definitely not playing. Is it because people know that despite making a few absolutely incredible throws last week, Anthony Richardson still can’t play the position and is going on the road to Lambeau? Why the fuck is this line only -2.5?!
Last week we took the Texans -3, despite a similar “Why is this only -3?” question and even thought the -3 was the right process (ignoring the same dark voices warning us), that turned out to be a loss. Well we’re doing it again! For the shoe, beat the Packers! Let’s pack them down with our shoes!
The picks: Colts -2.5 and Under 40.5
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Here’s another game that may turn out to be an absolute gift, as this may be one of the last opportunities we have to bet against Deshaun “27 is my lucky number” Watson. After rewatching that Browns game last week, two things are clear: (1) the stud QB we saw in Houston is dead and gone and (2) Mr. Watson doesn’t want to play football anymore.
Could the Browns defense, despite being shaky on the road, get enough pressure to throttle the Jags passing attack and win the game on turnovers? Sure. But it’s a rare opportunity to get to bet against a team with a lame duck QB that everyone seems to dislike, particularly when there’s a well-liked, finger-licking… serviceable(?) QB waiting in the wings.
The picks: Jaguars -3, Under 41.5
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
Remember when I didn’t have CMC as my #1 RB for the season? Good times. Should’ve gone harder.
Last year the 49ers went into Minnesota and lost 22-17, continuing a healthy trend of fading Brock Purdy when he doesn’t have either LT Trent Williams or WR Deebo Samuel. Well this year, both Williams and Samuel are good to go and the spread is a point lower than last year’s game. Easy enough for me.
49ers get their revenge in a high scoring blowout dominated by Deebo Samuel, who gets to take his 6th highest Yards per Route Run against zone to Minnesota, a team that runs the 3rd most zone coverage.
The picks: 49ers -4.5, Over 46.5
Prop Bet: Deebo Samuel to score a TD (+105), ⭐️ Deebo Samuel over 84.5 yards from scrimmage (-114) ⭐️
Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots
I want nothing to do with this game. Only picking Seattle because of my preseason belief in them and because a FG win is a push. The Pats aren’t going 2-0 to start the year, right?… right?
The picks: Seahawks -3, Under 38.5
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Oh look, another game I want nothing to do with! Look at Aaron Rodgers’ passing chart from Monday night at SF.
Only one NGS chart is sillier - see below - but come on. I can’t possibly recommend betting on the Jets when this is staring me in the face.
The picks: Titans +3.5, Under 41
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
I feel gross even thinking about this game and even grosser when I realize that I’m about to recommend betting on Daniel Jones on the road. The man got absolutely rocked by the blitz-happy Brian Flores defense last week and the results showed it. But the Commanders are a different beast, rolling out one of the worst defenses in the league and a vanilla game plan.
I didn’t look it up, but I’m confident in saying that Daniel Jones has a winning record against only one team in the NFL, and it happens to be the Commies, against which he holds a stellar 5-1-1 record. The Giants defense looked kinda good last week so give me the 🤮 Giants on the road getting points. Lord help me.
The picks: Giants +1.5, Over 43.5
LA Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Matt Stafford had the most impressive QB performance of week 1, somehow taking his matchup at the Lions to OT with half his offense line getting injured and Aiden Hutchinson breathing down his neck with a ridiculous 37% pass-rush win rate.
This spread flipped from Rams -2.5 to Cardinals -1 after the former ruled out some offensive lineman and put Puka Nacua on IR. Should the Cards be favored, even at home, against anyone but maybe the Panthers? These last four games have been rough, but let’s hold our breath and pick the Cardinals at home, hoping they can find success running the ball and throwing the ball more than three times to the best WR prospect in years in MHJ.
The picks: Cardinals -1.5, Over 48
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Holy shit, thank god we finally have a good game to write about.
Teehee, just kidding. Tee Higgins is likely out again, so the Chiefs roll, pressuring Joe “I regret this haircut” Burrow and carving up what could be a really, really bad Bengals run defense.
The picks: Chiefs -6, Under 48
Prop Bet: Isiah Pacheco longest rush over 15.5 (+102), ⭐️ Isiah Pacheco over 67.5 rushing (-115) ⭐️
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Yuck!
Let’s remind ourselves about the Mike Tomlin trend I wrote about last week:
Mike Tomlin is 80-56-1 (59%) to the under in road games, with an even more impressive 21-4 record to the under in his last 25, so we’re definitely on the under here in Atlanta.
Make that 81-56-1 and 22-4, but yes, we’re absolutely taking the disgusting under 36.5 here.
The Broncos defense looked pretty good last week, holding Seattle to only 5.1 Yards per Play across 15 drives, although giving up 4.4 Yards per Carry + 2 TDs. The offense? Well, that’s going to need a little bit more work.
This is going to be a tight, ugly game, but I think the Steelers pull out a rare ATS win as a favorite, riding Najee Harris and the run game to a quick and dirty road win. The real question is: will Justin Fields complete a pass in the middle of the field this week?!
The picks: Steelers -2.5, Under 36.5
Prop Bet: ⭐️ Najee Harris over 59.5 (-115) ⭐️, ⭐️ Najee Harris 70+ rushing (+134) ⭐️, 0.5u Najee Harris 80+ rushing (+196)
Yes a double star for my boy, Najee. This is an absolute gift of a line.
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans
If you like the Texans, bet them now at -6.5, because this bad boy is definitely getting bet up to -7 by game time, after the indebted public chases them hard on teasers and Eagles parlays.
Chicago’s defense + special teams closed their game strong last week, singlehandedly winning the game after scoring two TDs on a blocked punt and horrific Will Levis INT. Caleb Williams did not play well, but this may have been a useful game for his development nonetheless. After spending two years at USC knowing he needed to score every drive to overcome his sieve of a defense, Caleb quickly learned that despite playing like shit (14/29 for 93 yards), you can still quarterback a win in the NFL if you don’t turn the ball over (0 INTs).
As for the Texans, their defense was serviceable last week, giving up 27 points on the back of a couple explosive, ridiculous plays out of Anthony Richardson. The offense dominated though, putting up 5.3 Yards per Carry, as the Colts focused on slowing down the Texans passing attack.
My heart says Texans at home, but my head says fade the public here, with 91% of tickets and money on the Texans moneyline.
The picks: Bears +6.5, Under 45.5
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
This one is easy.
Kirk Cousins cannot play the position right now. He’s completely immobile and is unable to operate under center, also known as the thing that was key to his success in Minnesota.
Fade the Falcons and think about some Michael Penix Offensive Rookie of the Year bets at 40/1. A QB controversy is coming.