NFL Week 16 Picks ATS (2024)
Week 16 spread and total picks for every NFL game, with a few prop bets along the way
Yesterday didn’t exactly go as planned… oh well! Got a whacky, somewhat underwhelming slate this Sunday but hopefully everyone has at least one fantasy or Best Ball team still kicking (0 and 2 for me, respectively) to make some of these games more interesting.
Little bit lighter this week, as I’m heads down working on my NBA Christmas Rookie rankings, but feeling good about some of these games, despite hitting the tanking portion of the NFL season that makes things a bit more complicated motivation-wise.
Onto Week 16 (Sunday edition)!
Betting Record:
Last Week:
Against the Spread: 5-11 (31.3%)
Totals: 6-9-1 (40.0%)
Prop Bets: 19-39 (-22.85 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 13-18 (41.9%)
Overall Record:
Against the Spread: 98-114-8 (46.2%)
Totals: 111-109-3 (50.5%)
Prop Bets: 267.3-299.5 (+25.58 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 186-153-3 (54.9%)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
The Cleveland Browns are so unbelievably fucked with this Deshaun Watson situation that they’re committing a Week 16 crime against the viewing public, benching QB Jameis Winston in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a player that we definitively know is not going to be a starting QB in the league. Just in case you need a reminder, DTR got three starts last year (with a far better Browns team around him), went 1-2, averaged 8.3 PPG, with an average stat line of 140 passing yards, a 52.8% Completion % on 36 attempts, 0.3 passing TDs, 1.3 INTs, and 21.7 rushing yards, all summing up to a 51.1 Passer Rating (out of 158). NOT GOOD! He also sucked for five years as UCLA’s QB, so uh ya… he’s bad, but the Browns are giving him a chance(?). What a franchise!
Now the Bengals offense is still excellent, their defense still kinda sucks, and they’re still going to need a lot of help even after the Broncos TNF loss, but they do have a ~5% chance of making the playoffs.
I’d like to see that 5% outcome because it would likely mean a Bengals at Bills Wild Card Weekend primetime game, which is just a little more exciting than whatever bloodbath would ensue should either the Broncos or Miami travel to Buffalo for a midday smackdown. Come on football gods - help us out!
Even though I know the Browns have played the Bengals relatively tight the past few years, I’m still shocked that the Bengals are only laying -9 at home facing DTR. This unfortunately means that the Bengals will win this game by 7 after Jameis checks in for a garbage time TD drive, but still, the Bengals should win by margin here!
The picks: ⭐️ Bengals -9 ⭐️, Under 47
Prop Bet(s): a little…
⭐️ 6pt teaser: Bengals -9, Lions -6.5 (-120) ⭐️
⭐️ Browns team total under 17.5 (-104) ⭐️
0.5u Browns team total alt under 14.5 (+174)
0.5u Browns team total alt under 12.5 (+295)
⭐️ Ja'Marr Chase over 88.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
0.5u Chase 100+ receiving (+138)
0.5u Chase 110+ receiving (+192)
⭐️ Tee Higgins over 68.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
0.5u Higgins 80+ receiving (+142)
0.5u Higgins 90+ receiving (+210)
0.5u Higgins anytime 1H TD (+300)
0.5u Higgins anytime 2H TD (+375)
0.5u SGP: Chase 70+ receiving, Higgins 50+ receiving, Higgins anytime TD, Bengals alt -5.5 (+368)
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Well it looks like all of us got a bit ahead of ourselves with the Panthers last week. Wah wah. They had been playing well and covered five straight ATS, but this Cowboys defense, specifically Micah Parsons who abused the Panthers “good” OL on multiple occasions, is playing pretty well right now!
And as for the Cardinals, well my Drake Maye 2H backdoor covering fascination / fetish got the best of me, and even though I think the game was a bit closer than the 30-17 final score, Cardinals -6.5 was really never in doubt.
Which brings us to this game. What to do with this game? We have a Cardinals team that absolutely needs this win if they have any hopes of making the playoffs (and even then needing some whacky results from both the Rams and Seahawks) facing off against December Kyler Murray’s penchant for blowing games that look just like this. Fortunately for Kyler and the Cardinals, they’re facing the Panthers, a team that has been totally incapable of stopping the run all year (and may be missing their last good defensive lineman, DT A'Shawn Robinson).
Kyler can’t do his late-season Kyler thing if James Conner is running for 125+ yards, now can he?
The picks: ⭐️ Cardinals -4.5 ⭐️, Over 47
Prop Bet(s): it’s the James Conner show…
Cardinals alt -6.5 (+124)
0.5u Cardinals alt -9.5 (+188)
0.5u Cardinals alt -12.5 (+260)
⭐️ James Conner longest rush over 15.5 yards (-110) ⭐️
⭐️ James Conner over 84.5 rushing yards (-112) ⭐️
Conner 90+ rushing (+108)
0.5u Conner 100+ rushing (+158)
0.5u Conner 110+ rushing (+225)
0.5u SGP: Cardinals -4.5, Conner anytime TD, Conner over 84.5 rushing (+234)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
What a sad story the Lions are turning out to be. I can understand a team peaking too soon and falling off to close the year, but this is different and just kinda sad. 21 players on IR… 21!! I’m not writing them off just yet as a contender, but they’re going to need Jared Goff to put on his superhero cape the rest of the way to have a chance of winning it all.
And that starts this weekend on the road in Chicago where it will be sunny, feel like 22 degrees, and have gusts up to 25 MPH, also known as prime Jared Goff letdown weather.
If the Lions want to earn back some longterm trust from the betting public (something they absolutely don’t and shouldn’t care about, to be clear), they will take care of business on the road here and absolutely torch this garbage Bears squad.
The picks: Lions -6.5, Over 47.5
Prop Bet(s): in Jared we trust…
0.5u Lions alt -9.5 (+134)
0.5u Lions alt -12.5 (+182)
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
I got next to nothing for y’all here.
Michael Penix has been inserted into the starting job after Cousins limp-dicked his way through the last month and a half of the season. Offensively (he said), what does this team look like now? Probably radically different and a lot more in line with the stuff that Falcons OC Zac Robinson has been wanting to run this entire season, held back by his pocket-bound QB that somehow produced this inconceivable stat
I just have no idea whether Penix, who has supposedly only been working with the scout team since OTAs earlier this year, is going to be ready to be productive in his first NFL start. One thing I do know though is that Penix trained with my favorite PPR spammer Ray-Ray McCloud over the summer, so we’ll be banking on that chemistry today.
Before I go, I cannot believe that the Falcons recklessly taking Penix at #8 overall this past draft might actually work out for them. Just a good reminder to never be too confident in your draft takes when it comes to the NFL 😂
The picks: Falcons -8.5, Under 43
Prop Bet(s): McCloud!!!…
⭐️ Ray-Ray McCloud over 3.5 receptions (+132) ⭐️
0.5u McCloud 5+ receptions (+270)
0.5u McCloud 6+ receptions (+530)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Well the Colts’ season is finally over after the Chargers won on TNF. Sucks for Anthony Richardson. Would’ve really loved the opportunity to bet against him during Wild Card Weekend 😔
This game is ugly. But it’s the Titans and they have a new QB starting (again / again), so obviously I’m going to lose money on them and the over. We all have our blind spots.
The picks: Titans +3.5, Over 42.5
Prop Bet(s): just a couple of WRs battling it out…
⭐️ Calvin Ridley 25+ receiving yards in each half (+205) ⭐️
0.5u Calvin Ridley 1+ reception every quarter (+250)
⭐️ Calvin Ridley over 60.5 receiving (-110) ⭐️
Ridley 70+ receiving (+132)
0.5u Ridley 80+ receiving (+200)
⭐️ Adonai Mitchell longest reception over 16.5 yards (-108) ⭐️
Adonai Mitchell over 24.5 receiving yards (-108)
0.5u Mitchell 40+ receiving (+225)
0.5u Mitchell 50+ receiving (+380)
Last time Mason Rudolph got the start, Ridley went 5/8 for 73 yards. Rudolph knows where his bread is buttered (handing it off to Tony Pollard, mostly, who only need 85 more scrimmage yards to join Derrick Henry as the only RBs to have 1,300+ all-purpose yards each of the last three years! Kinda wild, right?
And one of these weeks Richardson is going to connect with AD Mitchell, his rookie WR that consistently finds ways to get wide open while running a route at the wrong depth. These two boys, I swear 🥰 Figure it out, gentlemen!
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
The next three games are fascinating due to one particular matchup that I think may end up swinging the game for either team.
For this Eagles-Commanders rematch, the question is whether the Eagles can shutdown Commies star WR Terry McLaurin one more time after holding him to an 0/2 donut in their first matchup back in Week 11. In that game, McLaurin ran nearly 90% of his routes on the left side and was shadowed by Eagles rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell on nearly every route. Prior to Week 11, McLaurin wasn’t 90% locked to the left side of the formation, but it was definitely a large majority of his routes. Since then though, Kliff + co have started moving McLaurin around a bit more, with only 63% of his routes starting on the left side of the formation. This ideally means McLaurin can escape the prison of “Quinyonamo Bay” (what an excellent nickname), but it’s not all butterflies and rainbows on the right side with Darius Slay and Cooper DeJean there to torture the Washington passing attack. Is it better than a zero catch day from your best and only reliable receiver? Hopefully.
Now despite my discussing it, I don’t really have any clue how this alignment game of chess is going to play out today, but I do think it is something worth monitoring, particularly if the Noah Brown-less Washington pass attack can’t find their footing early due to McLaurin’s absence in the stat sheet. We of course, know where to find him.
(Eagles Twitter is such a deranged delight)
My prediction for this game: Eagles roll against this slightly above average Washington group. Might be a bit sweatier than Philly fans would like in the 1st quarter / half, but this Eagles team is jelled and ready to usurp the NFC #1 seed.
The picks: ⭐️ Eagles -3.5 ⭐️, Over 45.5
Prop Bet(s): Eagles, why can’t you score in the 1st quarter?…
Commanders 1Q three-way winner (+170)
0.5u Eagles alt -6.5 (+144)
0.5u Eagles alt -9.5 (+225)
Jalen Carter over 0.25 sacks (+126)
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Next matchup is between two rookies: Rams OLB Jared Verse and Jets LT Olu Fashanu.
Coming out of the draft, these two players had pretty clear reps: Jared Verse was going to use his strength to bull rush the crap out your tackles and Olu Fashanu was a bit of a project with All Pro upside, but someone that struggled mightily in college vs bigger/stronger pass rushers.
This matchup appears to have a pretty clear answer, namely that Jared Verse might lock up the DRoY award today by absolutely tormenting his fellow 1st round classmate. Give me the Rams.
The picks: ⭐️ Rams -3 ⭐️, Over 46.5
Prop Bet(s): ⭐️ Jared Verse over 0.25 sacks (-112) ⭐️
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Last matchup is two-fold (I cheated):
The Vikings love to blitz ~40% of opponent dropbacks. Geno Smith, despite his offensively bad offensive line, has operated like a top 5-7 QB this year vs the blitz. Is Week 16 Geno healthy enough to maintain that? AND
Since the Seahawks Week 10 BYE, HC Mike MacDonald has this defense gelling. They’ve primarily been doing it by putting QBs in bad situations, holding offenses to minimal gains on 1st and 2nd downs and then busting out the 2nd best defense by EPA / attempt on 3rd and long (-0.48 / drop back!). Here’s the matchup though: Sam Darnold and the Vikings have been the best team in the league in that situation, putting up 0.35 EPA / drop back in 3rd and long situations. So, which number wins out?
This feels like a decent bounce back spot for the Seahawks after getting shellacked by the Packers on SNF, but I’m having a real hard time taking Seattle +3 when I know that Sam Howell, a QB designed in a lab to fail against this Brian Flores defense, is just one awkward hit away from blowing up any Seahawks bet.
So with that in mind, I am unconfidently taking the Vikings -3.
The picks: Vikings -3, Over 42.5
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
The Bills just had one hell of a Weeks 14-15, setting this season’s record for most combined points in a game in their loss on the road vs the Rams, before promptly breaking said record the follow week on the road while destroying the Lions (and David Montgomery… and my bankroll…) in Detroit.
This has LETDOWN SPOT STAY AWAY written all over it. And I can’t help myself with Drake Maye. Here’s another unconfident pick of Patriots +14.5, although something deep inside me is telling me that Maye puts on a show here on the road… ignore it, Ryan, ignore it!
The picks: Patriots +14.5, ⭐️ Over 46.5 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): just in case…
Alt over 49.5 (+134)
0.5u Alt over 50.5 (+154)
0.5u Alt over 52.5 (+205)
0.5u Patriots alt +7.5 (+192)
I couldn’t ignore it, sorry
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
Okay one more matchup to talk about: will the 49ers give a shit about this game after putting what feels like their 8th RB on the shelf for the year? With nothing to play for except for pride and potentially HC Kyle Shanahan’s job.
No clue on this game, although the total seems suspiciously low…
The picks: 49ers -1.5, Over 44.5
Prop Bet(s): Malik Washington…
⭐️ Malik Washington over 29.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
0.5u Washington 40+ receiving (+168)
0.5u Washington 50+ receiving (+275)
Malik Washington has been sneakily coming on recently, with career high 42% and 59% snap shares the last two weeks, respectively
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
Haha nope!
The picks: Raiders -2.5, Under 41
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Are the Bucs overrated right now laying -3.5 on the road or are the Cowboys going to lay another stinker at home? Hoping for a good game to close out the day.
The picks: Buccaneers -3.5, ⭐️ Over 48 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): one man and one man only…
⭐️ Bucky Irving over 18.5 receiving yards (-112) ⭐️
Irving 25+ receiving (+156)
0.5u Irving 40+ receiving (+345)
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
We’ll always have the Sunday games to look fondly back upon…
The picks: Packers -14, Under 42.5
See ya next week for Week 17!