NFL Week 16 Saturday Picks ATS (2024)
Week 16 spread and total picks for the Saturday NFL games, with a few prop bets along the way
Full article to come for the Sunday slate of games, but wanted to get something out there for the two Saturday games today, also known as one of the best sports days of the year: two big time AFC NFL matchups, three College Football Playoff games (hopefully not duds like 99% of that Indiana-Notre Dame game), 12 NBA games, 11 NHL games, and an uncountable number of college basketball games. And that’s all on top of the Next Gen ATP Finals Presented by PIF Semifinals, a tennis tournament that you obviously knew was going on in Saudi Arabia. Fantastic stuff, Saudi Public Investment Fund, truly.
Before the NFL, have a quick little bet for ya on the CFB Playoff (that won’t count towards any of my records): love Tennessee’s team total under 19.5 (-110). Thankfully for me as a Michigan fan, I think Ryan Day saves his job with a dominating defensive performance and win at home. If you do like Tennessee to get the upset though, this 1Q/Game parlay seems like a decent way to juice your odds. It could get ugly in that stadium if Mr Day’s squad forgets to show up at night.
Alright, onto the Saturday NFL picks!
(PS: last week was not a great week. David Montgomery’s injury in the 1st quarter took out the Lions as a Tier 1 Super Bowl contender and also absolutely wiped out our Sunday betting card… betting the NFL is hard!)
Betting Record:
Last Week:
Against the Spread: 5-11 (31.3%)
Totals: 6-9-1 (40.0%)
Prop Bets: 19-39 (-22.85 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 13-18 (41.9%)
Overall Record:
Against the Spread: 98-114-8 (46.2%)
Totals: 111-109-3 (50.5%)
Prop Bets: 267.3-299.5 (+25.58 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 186-153-3 (54.9%)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Hell of a win out of my Chargers!
The picks: Broncos +3, Under 41.5
Prop Bet(s): a few...
⭐️ 6pt teaser: Broncos +3, Under 41.5, Ravens -6.5 (+160) ⭐️
Bo nix over 1.5 passing TDs (+148)
Javonte Williams under 2.5 receptions (+132)
⭐️ Ladd McConkey over 5.5 receptions (-134) ⭐️
⭐️ Stone Smartt over 28.5 receiving (-110) ⭐️
0.5u Smartt 40+ receiving (+180)
0.5u Smartt 50+ receiving (+315)
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Last week, I absolutely loved Dalton Schultz, a statement no reasonable man should ever have to write two weeks in a row. I thought he would have a real advantage vs this Miami defense running some of his favorite routes, namely out routes. Obviously, I missed on all those bets, as Schultz ended the day with 2/4 for 13 yards, but I gotta say - in reviewing the tape, the opportunities were definitely there.
I don’t usually whine about gambling losses here (see: David Montgomery 😭), but here’s the visual form; the laziest of cutups of some of Schultz’s routes during the Texans’ 1st drive of the game:
Schultz (#86) leaks out late at the top of the screen for an open flat route. Stroud doesn’t look;
Schultz runs the out route I was focusing on at the bottom of the screen vs single coverage against Ramsey. Not the most open but open enough. Stroud opts for Robert Woods on a deep comeback route; and
Schultz runs a perfect dig route across the middle of the field and is WIDE OPEN, but Stroud decides he’d rather stare down and force the ball up top to Mixon on the wheel route
And let me tell you - there was plenty more of that throughout the game. Even admitting that Stroud made a good decision on examples #1 and #2 above, #3 is an egregious miss of the big man putting in work. Process ✅ Results ❌
As for this matchup on the road vs the Chiefs, I’ve heard a lot about how this game really doesn’t mean anything to the Texans, having essentially wrapped up the AFC South without room to move up to the #2 seed. As for the Chiefs, this game is somewhat critical if they’d like to lock up the #1 seed AND rest their starters in Week 18, having to face both the “fighting for the AFC North title” Steelers and the “fighting for the playoffs” Broncos on the road in Weeks 17 + 18, all while knowing the Bills have the tiebreaker just 2 losses behind, having to face the Patriots, Jets, and Patriots the next three weeks.
But I disagree with that assessment. This Texans team, like many NFL teams, has ears and I know they’ve been hearing all week (all season!) that they’re not really contenders and will fold against a good team in the playoffs. Here’s a golden opportunity for them to go into Arrowhead, face a severely hobbled Mahomes, and beat a team they’ll likely have to get through to make it to the Super Bowl. And they can give me some line value on the Texans +4000 Super Bowl future I grabbed before last week - huge incentives, all around!
Is a Texans win possible though? Damn right it is! This Texans defense is Super Bowl-caliber, with the DE combo of Hunter + Anderson Jr ready to take advantage of these pretty terrible Kansas City tackles on the edge. Also, did I mention that Mahomes is injured, like, “holy shit I can’t believe this guy is playing this week” injured?
Not a pretty sight, but this is the result when your QB has been hit 27 times over the last three weeks! I’m not sure we’re allowed to talk about it, but Mahomes has taken a ton of punishment to his lower body the last couple years and *quietly under my breath* it’s kinda starting to show up via a drop in his athleticism… Of course, Mahomes has had a bad knee or ankle injury every single time they’ve made the Super Bowl, so it might not matter this year (again, ugh), but at a certain point, your 29 year old quarterback is going to be on the wrong side of 30. Scary stuff, I know.
With all that said, I think we all know how this is going to turn out, don’t we? The Texans and their 6th best 1H offense (13.9 PPG) are going to come out and give the Chiefs a scare, only to blow the game when their 7th worst 2H offense (9.5 PPG) takes the field. The Chiefs pull a rabbit out of their ass again, and knowing my luck ATS, cover the -3.5 spread. Some things are just outside your control, I guess…
The picks: ⭐️ Texans +3.5 ⭐️, Under 42.5
Prop Bet(s): just a few…
Texans 1Q 3-way winner (+168)
⭐️ Texans 1H 3-way winner (+144) ⭐️
⭐️ Joe Mixon over 21.5 receiving yards (-108) ⭐️
Mixon 25+ receiving (+120)
0.5u Mixon 40+ receiving (+345)
⭐️ Patrick Mahomes longest completion under 35.5 yards (-114) ⭐️
⭐️ DeAndre Hopkins over 3.5 receptions (-108) ⭐️
Hopkins 5+ receptions (+192)
0.5u Hopkins 6+ receptions (+365)
0.25u Hopkins 7+ receptions (+650)
⭐️ Travis Kelce over 5.5 receptions (+104) ⭐️
0.5u Kelce 7+ receptions (+192)
0.5u Kelce 7+ receptions (+315)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
If you wanted a big long breakdown of this game, well, you’re shit out of luck cause this one is pretty simple in my book:
The Steelers offense cannot operate without George Pickens. He’s proving to be 2024’s unintentional MVP;
The Ravens need this game if they want to win the AFC North title;
Mike Tomlin as a road underdog blah blah blah, you know he’s incredible here if you’ve read any Steelers preview I’ve ever written 😅; and
Since 2020, with or without Lamar, the 9 Steelers-Ravens games have been decided by a combined 34 points, with only two instances of a team winning by 7+ points, both by exactly 7 points. The phrase “winning by margin” does not exist here
So what am I about to do? Pick the Ravens to cover the -6.5 of course! This Steelers team will be lucky to put up 14 points and their defense, aka TJ Watt, is banged up on a short week after being on the field for 39:52 of the 60 minutes they played vs the Eagles last week. The Ravens of course listened to me last week vs the Giants and basically gave the offense (read: Derrick Henry) the 2nd half off.
I’m very uncomfortable with this pick, but I have the Ravens winning and covering - wish me luck!
The picks: Ravens -6.5 , ⭐️ Under 44.5 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): just some unders…
Alt under 41.5 (+148)
0.5u Alt under 38.5 (+225)
⭐️ Steelers team total under 19.5 (-112) ⭐️
Steelers alt team total under 17.5 (+110)
0.5u Steelers alt team total under 15.5 (+190)
0.5u Steelers alt team total under 13.5 (+245)
⭐️ Russell Wilson longest completion under 35.5 yards (-112) ⭐️
Jaylen Warren over 3.5 receptions (+132)
⭐️ Justice Hill over 20.5 receiving yards (-108) ⭐️
Hill 25+ receiving (+128)
0.5u Hill 40+ receiving (+295)
See ya in 24 hours!