NFL Week 13 Picks ATS (2024)
Week 13 spread and total picks for every NFL game, with a few prop bets along the way
Goddamn, did we have a fantastic Thanksgiving betting football! The food was alright - got into a long, cold war-like argument with my distant uncle about flour to butter ratios when making a roux for gravy - but the betting, my god! Tua, you truly are a shining example of consistency!
The Thanksgiving picks can be found here if you missed them. Oh and if any of this particular writeup feels particularly manic, it’s because I was basically high all day Saturday after my Michigan Wolverines went into that shithole Columbus, OH and beat the Buckeyes for the 4th year in a row despite not having a working offense.
Ryan Day, I love you and I will be rooting for you to win a single College Football Playoff game SO HARD 💙
Betting Record:
Thanksgiving Foursome
Against the Spread: 2-2 (50%)
Totals: 3-1 (75%)
Prop Bets: 14-6 (+13.60 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 11-4 (73.3%)
Last Week:
Against the Spread: 10-2-1 (83.3%)
Totals: 4-9 (30.8%)
Prop Bets: 32-34 (+6.81 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 17-14-1 (54.8%)
Overall Record:
Against the Spread: 84-89-6 (48.6%)
Totals: 96-86-1 (52.7%)
Prop Bets: 197.8-199 (+50.47 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 146-102-1 (58.9%)
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders
Not sure what sort of magical cocktail Jayden Daniels injected into himself last weekend, but it sure was nice to see him scrambling around again (despite losing my under 38.5 rushing ⭐️ bet) and not grimacing every single time after throwing the ball. With that said, this Commanders team still does have that “sinking ship” smell, so I’d be very cautious throwing them in a tease or ML parlay this week.
That’s because Will Levis, although still incapable of finishing a game without at least one turnover, is sneakily showing some real signs of growth after his three week absence. Take a look at his PFF weekly grades
Definite improvement, with that last column Turnover Worth Plays % (TWP%) being particularly noteworthy: through the first 6 weeks of the year, Levis was comfortably amongst the bottom 5 QBs, with his TWP% of 4.4% in line with the early season Anthony Richardson and Jalen Hurts. Levis still misses some very easy throws he has no business missing if he wants to be a starting NFL QB, but he’s been much better at leveraging that cannon of arm he has to create big plays down field, hitting Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for a 98 yard TD vs the Vikings in Week 11 and a 63 yard (65 air yards) pass to Calvin Ridley last week vs the Texans. Let’s see if mayo boy can put it together one more time!
The picks: Titans +6.5, Over 44.5
Prop Bet(s): Will Levis longest completion over 34.5 yards (-112), Will Levis over 5.5 rushing attempts (+125)
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
Warning: this particular game breakdown is incredibly dense and numbers heavy
The Falcons run outside zone on 52.1% of their rush attempts, 15% points higher than the next closest team (DET, 37.1%). You may think this is a new focus brought on by HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson, but you would be only partially correct because guess who led the league by a wide margin in Outside Zone Run rate the prior two seasons? The Arthur Smith-led Falcons of course, putting up similarly absurd margins between their run rates and the rest of the league:
2023 Falcons: 40.4% vs #2 SF at 31.1%
2022 Falcons: 45.6% vs #2 SF at 29.0%
So how do the Chargers fare when defending outside zone runs? Overall, quite well: 13th best YpC (3.9), 8th best Success rate (31.4%), 3rd best EPA / rush (-0.23), and 9th best Stuff rate (25.7%, with that last number primarily buoyed by Khalil Mack’s ridiculous 53.8% Stuff rate when teams run to his side.
Okay, this looks promising for my Chargers! Falcons stud RB Bijan Robinson runs outside zone 45.6% of the time, and although he’s worked to diversify his carries after starting the first 5 weeks of the season running outside zone a whopping 64.2% of the time, this is still the Falcons' and Bijan’s bread and butter.
There is another guy in the Falcons RB room though, and despite not getting a single carry last week after playing through a hamstring injury, I do think this may be a decent Tyler Allgeier spot, as his physical style of running between the tackles is potentially better suited to take advantage of the Chargers front 7.
Looking to when the Falcons need to throw the ball, there’s a very clear split for Mr. Kirk Cousins: when Kirk faces man coverage, he balls out, ranking 5th out of 39 qualified QBs in EPA / attempt (0.30), but when Kirk has to face zone coverage, he turns into the very middling QB we’ve all learned to accept, ranking 16th in EPA / play (0.17).
When I went all in on Denver two weeks ago hosting the Falcons, I did it trusting that Broncos DC Vance Joseph would notice this Kirk-quirk and change up his typical man-heavy game plan - 64.0% Man Coverage rate, #1 in the league - just as he had done the prior two weeks vs the Chiefs and Ravens. There he shifted from a 36.4% Man Coverage rate vs the Ravens in Week 9 to a 67.3% rate vs the Chiefs in Week 10 - a wild swing week to week! And our faith was rewarded: Joseph dropped his Man Coverage rate down to 48.6% and throttled the Falcons offense in a 38-6 win.
The Chargers are a bit more cut and dry, running man coverage only 34.4% of passing plays, 3rd lowest in the league only behind the Vikings and Bucs. Chargers DC Jesse Minter is just gonna go out there, rely on Khalil Mack to muck up one half of your running game, play a shit-ton of 2-high shell defense (54.0%, 2nd most), and dare you to dink and dunk your way down the field. In response, this looks like a ton of opponent RB targets (7.0/game, 8th most in the league) and a ton of short passes in the middle of the field (8.4/game, 3rd most in the league). In case you were wondering, Drake London and Ray-Ray McCloud receive 38% and 33% of those short + middle targets, respectively.
As for the Chargers offense - don’t worry, I’m not number bombing you here too - they’re going to really miss RB JK Dobbins this week, as he’s their best triple threat back, able to pass block (top 20 RB PFF grade), catch the ball, and provide explosive plays (3rd in Explosive Run rate at 15.2%). With the downgrade from Dobbins to Gus Edwards, I expect the Chargers to lean on their two best weapons as they have each of the last couple weeks: WR Ladd McConkey and, as we all predicted preseason, Will Dissly, who is averaging over 4 receptions and 52 yards per game the last three weeks. With the Falcons continuing their long tradition of not pressuring the QB (and allowing me to keep my burgeoning tradition of mentioning that fact every week 🙄), Herbert should be able to keep this passing game humming, even if it’s a bit more behind the sticks than usual. And should the Falcons shock the world and come back from their BYE with a newfound formula to finally break through the 20% Pressure rate ceiling only they and the Panthers suffer beneath, Justin Herbert is more than willing to run all over you: over the last 8 weeks, Herbert has a higher QB Scramble rate (8%) than any other QB in the league - this is why they call him “BEAST”.
So who do I think wins this game? Unfortunately, all of that analysis was strictly for prop betting purposes and I haven’t a clue. Sorryyyyy.
Both the Falcons and Chargers need a win to keep their lead in their division title and/or playoff races, respectively. The total is dead on, so much so I think there’s a very good chance this game ends within 0.5 point of the total; something like 24-23 or 27-21. Let’s take the +1.5 though, banking on the West to East, 10am kick and rest disparity, as the Chargers are on short rest after MNF vs a physical Ravens team and the Falcons are coming off their BYE.
The picks: Falcons +1.5, Under 47.5
Prop Bet(s): I mean, there better be a fucking lot of props after all that…
⭐️ Tyler Allgeier over 24.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐️
Allgeier 40+ rushing (+206)
0.5u Allgeier 50+ rushing (+320)
Bijan Robinson longest rush over 15.5 (-110)
⭐️ Ray-Ray McCloud over 3.5 receptions (+138) ⭐️
McCloud 5+ receptions (+270)
0.5u McCloud 6+ receptions (+495)
⭐️ Justin Herbert under 4.5 rush attempts (+106) ⭐️
Quentin Johnston over 37.5 receiving yards (-110)
0.5u Johnston 50+ receiving (+165)
0.5u Johnston 60+ receiving (+275)
Joshua Palmer over 38.5 receiving yards (-108)
0.5u Palmer 50+ receiving (+154)
0.5u Palmer 60+ receiving (+225)
⭐️ Ladd McConkey 25+ receiving yards each half (+165) ⭐️
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
This is the most unpredictable game of the day right? You’d believe any combo of Colts beat the Pats by 10, Pats beat the Colts by 10, teams combined for 31 points, and teams combined for 55 points, right?
I have not been able to figure out when to bet on or off this Pats team and… *checks notes*… oh ya, also haven’t been able to figure out the Colts either, so this one is gonna get a big ol 🤷 from me. Taking the home dog just because I like Drake Maye more than Anthony Richardson.
The picks: Patriots +2.5, Under 42.5
Prop Bet(s): playing the hits…
Drake Maye over 27.5 rushing yards (-112)
0.5u Maye 40+ rushing (+214)
⭐️ Rhamondre Stevenson over 2.5 receptions (+108) ⭐️
0.5u Stevenson 4+ receptions (+225)
Hunter Henry over 45.5 receiving yards (-108)
0.5u Henry 60+ receiving (+178)
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
So I guess Trevor Lawrence is back?… to do what exactly with this lame duck team? Build chemistry with BTJ? Give more ammo for people that think he’s a total bust and some more ammo for people that think he’s just had shit coaching since he entered the league? Don’t understand the upside as a 2-9 team, but maybe the Mac Jones experience was as painful for the guys in the building as it was for us at home on the couch. Who knows.
Anyways, I’m very much perplexed by the fact that the Texans are only laying 3.5 points here. They’re on the road, playing a division rival, but they lost last week and kinda need to get their shit together at some point, no? This looks like a high scoring, Texans rout to me.
The picks: ⭐️ Texans -3.5 ⭐️, ⭐️ Over 43.5 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): a sprinkle…
⭐️ Texans 1H -2.5 (-115) ⭐️
Texans alt -6.5 (+136)
0.5u Texans alt -9.5 (+200)
0.5u Texans alt -12.5 (+290)
Alt over 46.5 (+126)
0.5u Alt over 49.5 (+182)
0.5u Alt over 5.15 (+240)
⭐️ Nico Collins longest reception over 27.5 yards (-112) ⭐️
⭐️ SGP: Texans alt -2.5, Over 43.5, Joe Mixon anytime TD (+256) ⭐️
Brian Thomas Jr over 62.5 receiving yards (-110)
0.5u Thomas Jr 80+ receiving (+174)
Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets
Boy oh boy is this a game I want nothing to do with. Jets coming off a BYE and the Seahawks coming off winning a huge division game?
All I know is that, post-BYE, the Seahawks defense appears to finally be gelling (again) and returning to their Weeks 1-3 form, but that their OL problems continue to fester and hold the team back from actually being a scary playoff team. Other than that, don’t really know much and the books don’t seem to either: seeing spreads from Seahawks -1.5 to Jets -1.5 and totals from 41 to 42.5.
The picks: Jets +1.5, Under 42.5
Prop Bet(s): a lot of RBs…
⭐️ Breece Hall under 15.5 rushing attempts (-142) ⭐️
Braelon Allen over 24.5 rushing yards (-110)
0.5u Allen 40+ rushing (+245)
⭐️ Kenneth Walker over 59.5 rushing yards (-108) ⭐️
0.5u Walker 70+ rushing (+146)
0.5u Walker 80+ rushing (+212)
Knee injury for Breece Hall with a competent backup ready to go? Unders please!
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Initially, I thought I was going to be all over the Cardinals here: bounce back spot, this Cardinals defense is totally over-performing but weird enough to give Darnold some issues, and Trey McBride might be the best TE in the league if you want to spam seam / sail routes vs a defense that lives in Cover 2.
Then I get to thinking some more and realized this is kinda a nightmare scenario for the Cardinals:
They’re on the road. Doesn’t help;
The Vikings defense is basically a better, more mature version of the Cardinals defense: both defenses are greater than the sum of their parts, relying on odd looks, simulated pressures, and a swarm of semi-undersized guys hauling ass to make plays. Both are awesome and awe-inspiring at times, but the Vikings have a couple elite talents to rely upon (e.g. DE Jonathan Greenard, OLB Blake Cashman, OLB Andrew Van Ginkel) and the mad scientist DC Brian Flores at the helm, while the Cardinals just have S Budda Baker; and probably most importantly,
The Cardinals offense is built upon their run game and quickly falls apart when that gets shut down. The Vikings have a top 3 run defense in the league and are variable enough to stop whatever the Cardinals cook up
After thinking through all that, the Vikings seem like the easy choice here. Always a chance that Kyler Murray goes nuclear, hitting shots down the middle to McBride, dropping dimes to MHJ down the sideline, and scrambling his way into chaotic success, but I think it’s far more likely we see the Vikings shutdown this Cardinals offense from the run game up.
The picks: ⭐️ Vikings -3 ⭐️, ⭐️ Under 45 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): a hodgepodge…
Alt under 41.5 (+144)
⭐️ Vikings 1H -2.5 (-110) ⭐️
Vikings alt -6.5 (+144)
0.5u Vikings alt -9.5 (+220)
⭐️ Aaron Jones over 18.5 receiving (-110) ⭐️
Jones 25+ receiving (+154)
0.5u Jones 40+ receiving (+365)
Trey McBride over 57.5 receiving yards (-112)
0.5u McBride 70+ receiving (+146)
Trey McBride anytime TD (+200)
Yet to score one this year - he’s due
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Apologies to the people of Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. I totally forgot about you… okay see you guys next week!
The picks: Bengals -3, Over 46
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
I do not understand why this total is so low - it was the first thing I bet this week.
Bryce Young had his best game in the NFL last Sunday at home vs a wobbly Chiefs team + defense. If you have the time, this 45 minute (yes, yes, I know) film review by The QB School details every minute detail of how Bryce Young may have flipped the narrative and saved his career with his performance last week.
But that was last week and as the joke goes, the NFL stands for Not For Long, so here come the Bucs, hungry for a win to keep their division title dreams alive, ready to blitz the living daylights out of Bryce, and drop a casual 30+ points through whatever combo of explosive runs and methodical passing they decide on that week. Bryce may have a hard time keeping pace with how bad this Panthers defense is.
But I’m a believer! Well, mostly a believer in this total flying over and that the Bucs defense is still significantly overrated, but a believer nonetheless! Come on, Bryce - let’s make it two in a row, shall we?
The picks: Panthers +6.5, ⭐️ Over 46.5 ⭐️
Prop(s): an absolute fuck ton…
Alt over 49.5 (+128)
Alt over 51.5 (+170)
0.5u Alt over 54.5 (+240)
⭐️⭐️ Bucs 1H total over 13.5 (-125) ⭐️⭐️
Double star!
1H total over 23.5 (-102)
0.5u 1H alt over 27.5 (+200)
Bucs total TDs over 3.5 (+144)
⭐️ Baker Mayfield over 1.5 passing TDs (-122) ⭐️
0.5u Mayfield 3+ passing TDs (+330)
⭐️ Bucky Irving longest rush over 13.5 yards (-118) ⭐️
⭐️ Bucky Irving over 57.5 rushing yards (-108) ⭐️
Irving 70+ rushing (+154)
0.5u Irving 80+ rushing (+220)
⭐️ Bucky Irving over 19.5 receiving yards (-104) ⭐️
Irving 25+ receiving (+160)
0.5u Irving 40+ receiving (+315)
⭐️ Mike Evans over 4.5 receptions (-125) ⭐️
0.5u Evans 6+ receptions (+146)
0.5u Evans 7+ receptions (+240)
⭐️ Mike Evans over 63.5 receiving (-114) ⭐️
Evans 70+ receiving (+108)
0.5u Evans 80+ receiving (+164)
0.5u Evans 90+ receiving (+235)
0.5u SGP: Over 46.5, Bucky Irving anytime TD, Mike Evans anytime TD, Mike Evans 40+ receiving, Bucky Irving 40+ rushing (+732)
The last time these two teams played they combined for 9 points and 427 total yards
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Another game that’s screaming OVER to me.
The Saints defense is old and can’t defend the pass. The Rams defense is young, can’t defend the run, and is prone to giving up explosive passes - never forget that the Rams have given up a 27+ yard reception in 9/11 games.
The Darren Rizzi 2-0 thing was fun while it lasted, but the fraudulent Falcons and bipolar Browns aren’t in the same tier as this fully healthy Rams offense.
The picks: ⭐️ Rams -2.5 ⭐️, ⭐️ Over 49 ⭐️
Prop(s): a few alts, but just a few…
Rams alt -6.5 (+166)
0.5u Rams alt -9.5 (+255)
⭐️ Rams team total over 26.5 (-106) ⭐️
Rams alt over 27.5 (+128)
Rams alt over 30.5 (+215)
Alt over 50.5 (+112)
0.5u alt over 54.5 (+186)
⭐️ Matthew Stafford over 1.5 passing TDs (-126) ⭐️
0.5u Stafford 3+ passing TDs (+300)
⭐️ Alvin Kamara over 5.5 receptions (+112) ⭐️
0.5u Kamara 7+ receptions (+182)
⭐️ Alvin Kamara over 38.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
0.5u Kamara 50+ receiving (+170)
0.5u Kamara 60+ receiving (+230)
⭐️ Taysom Hill over 29.5 receiving (-110) ⭐️
Hill 40+ receiving (+166)
0.5u Hill 50+ receiving (+265)
Here’s what Saints HC Darren Rizzi said about Taysom Hill earlier this week, “I think our usage with him these last couple weeks is really what we’re kind of trying to trend towards. A little bit of everything, not too much of anything. He’s obviously a huge part of what we do… The more he’s on the field, the more effective we’ve been, in all the times I’ve been here. There’s that fine line between getting too much and not enough… I think sprinkling him in a little bit everywhere is where we’re at our best.”
And here are Hill’s stats the last three weeks:
Load up on Taysom Hill props
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens
Unfortunately, didn’t get to do much studying for this game right here. Hoping it’s competitive, but just have a feeling that the Eagles are really going to miss DeVonta Smith for this game.
The picks: Ravens -3, Under 50.5
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills
This kinda feels like the 49ers last stand, not just for this year’s team, but for this era of the Shanahan 49ers as well, no?
I have no reason to believe that the 49ers will be competitive in this game:
Up to three feet of snow could hit Buffalo in advance on SNF. The Bills have a team designed to run the ball in those conditions and have maybe the strongest arm in the NFL should we get blizzard conditions;
Brock Purdy has a shoulder injury that they say is fine now after he sat out a week. This is despite us knowing that’s not exactly how shoulder injuries work, oh and that the 49ers have been shamelessly lying to us all year about any number of injuries;
The best way to attack this Bills defense is to bully them with an explosive, old school run game. That’s how the Ravens won back in Week 4. The 49ers OL stinks and the artist formerly known as CMC looks like a 28 year old RB that has two Achilles tendons that are slowly disintegrating on top of having already had multiple injury-plagued seasons in between the healthy ones, when he got 350+ touches per year
And yet, the snow wild card as well as this last stand feeling has me leaning 49ers… like a fool.
The picks: 49ers +6.5, Under 44.5
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
Which Jameis will show up this week? Your guess is as good as mine, my friend. Perhaps that sweet Cleveland snow game will allow this team to play two good games in a row? 🤷