NFL Week 13 Thanksgiving Picks ATS (2024)
Week 13 spread and total picks for the Thanksgiving NFL games, with a few prop bets along the way
We’ll have a full writeup coming for the Sunday slate, but it’s Thanksgiving, so had to put something out there for the four games. After all, Thanksgiving is about family, seeking out political arguments, and eating an expensive, dry, and generally worse version of chicken!
Thanksgiving has historically been completely and utterly dominated by the betting public. Over the last two decades, public sides, aka when 50%+ of tickets are on a bet ATS, have won 64% of the time and won 68% of the time when backing favorites. The numbers get even better for super public sides, with ATS bets getting 60%+ of tickets winning 72% of the time… not bad! Oh and uber public sides, with ATS bets getting 75%+ of tickets? 9-0 ATS and 9-0 SU.
So how’s the board look this week? As of publishing this (Thursday, 2am PST):
Lions -9.5 / -10 has 75% of tickets;
Cowboys -3.5 has 78% of tickets;
Packers -3.5 has 58% of tickets; and although not relevant to the stats above,
Raiders +13 has 54% of tickets
Smart ass vs incredibly obvious, dominant trends - who will win out?
Betting Record:
Last Week:
Against the Spread: 10-2-1 (83.3%)
Totals: 4-9 (30.8%)
Prop Bets: 32-34 (+6.81 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 17-14-1 (54.8%)
Overall Record:
Against the Spread: 82-87-6 (48.8%)
Totals: 93-85-1 (52.2%)
Prop Bets: 183.8-193 (+36.87 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 135-98-1 (57.9%)
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Last week we took the Colts at home hosting the Lions. It was a gut pick and the wrong pick. Will we make the same mistake again? At Bears +10.5 earlier this week, it was an easier choice, but now that the line has moved down the hook-less Bears +9.5 (-105) / Bears +10 (-120), backing the Bears is a little shakier of a proposition, particularly knowing picking against the Lions is a pick against a couple dominant public betting trends above.
But it’s a short week and the Lions had a brutal Sunday of injuries vs the Colts, with the Lions already ruling out starting LT Taylor Decker and CB Carlton Davis (and WR Kalif Raymond). CB Terrion Arnold and DT D.J. Reader will likely be back from injury, but key pieces WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and RB David Montgomery are questionable to play.
Looking to the matchups on the field, it seems like a couple things are worth banking on:
Caleb Williams will be on the move for the third straight week in a row after averaging 7.5 carries and 56.5 rushing yards the last two weeks. With the Lions playing such a man-heavy scheme, the opportunities should be there;
DJ Moore will have his opportunities on the outside, as the Lions are allowing the 5th most targets / game to receivers aligned out wide and DJ Moore is still an elite WR despite his whining;
Chicago’s run defense has operated as a top 10 unit when it comes to Success rate (38.8%) and are middle of the pack when it comes to EPA / rush, Stuff rate, Yards before Contact, etc. Unfortunately, none of that matters, because the Bears also have the 8th worst Explosive Run rate in the NFL, allowing plays of 10+ yards on over 13% of rushes. Easy way to turn your pretty good run defense into pretty bad;
The Bears pass defense has been very good recently, but the little injuries are starting to add up, with starting SS Elijah Hicks out this week. The Bears will likely be able to take away the explosive passes that turns Detroit’s offense into an unstoppable monster, but Goff and his 72.9% Completion % will happily take the easy stuff on a 13 play, 7 minute scoring drive
I was ready to type out “Lions -10”, I really was. But then I remembered how awesome it was being on the Packers ML last Thanksgiving as 8.5 point road underdogs. Fuck it, let’s be contrarian.
The picks: Bears +10, Under 47.5
Prop Bet(s): an appetizer…
⭐️ Lions 1H -6.5 (-112) ⭐️
The Bears have been horrible in the 1H (4-7 ATS). We’re praying for a backdoor cover here at the end of the day
⭐️ Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush over 18.5 yards (-110) ⭐️
⭐️ Caleb Williams over 5.5 rush attempts (-110) ⭐️
⭐️ DJ Moore over 4.5 receptions (-144) ⭐️
Moore 6+ receptions (+122)
0.5u Moore 7+ receptions (+205)
⭐️ DJ Moore over 54.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
0.5u Moore 60+ receiving (+114)
0.5u Moore 70+ receiving (+165)
0.5u Moore 80+ receiving (+240)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
I’ll probably be prepping / eating “dinner” during this game, so little lighter on the research. Has nothing to do with this likely being Drew Lock vs Cooper Rush, nothing at all.
We’re just gonna fall back on what we know: the Cowboys suck at home this year and at least in my experience, after several members of a team publicly eviscerate the coaching, play calling, etc., that team usually comes out and performs well. I still believe in our pilates-obsessed friend, Giants HC Brian Daboll. Not saying this team isn’t going to give up on this coaching staff cause that’s absolutely coming, but I do not think that day is today.
So ya, we’re taking the Giants +3.5 and oh ya, you’re goddamn right we’re going 2/2 in bucking this foolish public favorites on Thanksgiving trend! At the end of the day, if you start a Thanksgiving off going 0-2 ATS, you just can’t pass that opportunity up.
The picks: ⭐️ Giants +3.5 ⭐️, Over 37.5
Prop Bet(s): a tiny amount…
⭐️ CeeDee Lamb over 6.5 receptions (-108) ⭐️
0.5u Lamb 8+ receptions (+156)
0.5u Lamb 9+ receptions (+235)
⭐️ Malik Nabers over 6.5 receptions (-104) ⭐️
0.5u Nabers 8+ receptions (+156)
0.5u Nabers 9+ receptions (+240)
Elite rookie WR squeaky wheels get the grease
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers
You’d think that this game would have the longest breakdown, as it has the biggest stakes for both teams - the Dolphins are trying to make the playoffs and the Packers are trying to stay in the NFC North hunt - but no. This one’s simple.
The weather is supposed to be 25 degrees (feels like 15), with 10 MHP winds (gusts up to 20 MPH), and a 15% chance of snow (that’s per quarter numbers, so basically, a 60% chance of snow #HLP). Tua Tagovailoa has played four < 40 degree games in his career: he’s 1-3 ATS and 0-4 SU, failing to cover the spread by just over 18 PPG. In three of those four games, there was > 10 MPH wind: Tua averaged 13 PPG in those three losses.
Tua in the cold is an instant fade until proven otherwise.
The picks: ⭐️ Packers -3.5 ⭐️, ⭐️ Under 47.5 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): Tua better not buck the trend because…
⭐️ Packers alt -6.5 (+154) ⭐️
Packers alt -9.5 (+230)
0.5u Packers alt -12.5 (+335)
0.5u Packers alt -14.5 (+420)
⭐️ Alt under 45.5 (+120) ⭐️
0.5u Alt under 41.5 (+200)
0.5u Alt under 40.5 (+240)
⭐️ Dolphins team total under 22.5 (-104) ⭐️
0.5u Dolphins alt total under 20.5 (+128)
0.5u Dolphins alt total under 17.5 (+200)
⭐️ Josh Jacobs rushing attempts over 17.5 (-110) ⭐️
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
“Honey, I know there’s a football game on today, but let’s go out to the mall, spend some time together, and go look at some Christmas gifts for your family”
The picks: Chiefs -12.5, Over 42.5
See y’all on Sunday