2025 NBA Draft Breakdown
My 2025 Big Board of the top 14 players in the 2025 NBA Draft, plus some random thoughts on those outside my lottery
Compared to the 2024 NBA Draft, the conversation around this year’s group of prospects is basically a polar opposite; something akin to comparing the 1996 NBA Draft with the framed photos of the 1996 “60 and up” Championship team that somehow still has their photos up at the local Y.
Now before we begin, I gotta let ya in on a little secret here… despite having prepped and watched tape on this year’s class for many months, I’ve been suffering through a 102 degree fever for the last five days. It’s not consumption, but just like a doctor in 1800s London, I similarly have no idea what the hell is going on. That isn’t an excuse for any ranking mistakes that may reveal themselves in the future, but if I sound a little insane or make a joke, a comparison that doesn’t exactly land over the next however many hundreds (thousands) of words? Just give a little grace to the guy that definitely should’ve seen a doctor by now, okay? Cool. Onto the show.
Here I list my top 14 prospects in this year’s NBA Draft, each with what I think will be their highest level of career achievement (All NBA, All Star, 3rd Best Player (on a team), Starter, Bench), my best NBA comp, and a little bit of analysis loving or hating on the guy. Then a hodgepodge of thoughts on some other guys.
But first, let’s get some general thoughts out of the way:
This draft is fucking awesome. There’s two obvious, near-zero risk guys at the top and a whole bunch of players that are versatile enough to stick around in the league for a long time;
On top of that, perhaps I’ve just grown soft in my old age (32), but there are several key prospects in this draft whose careers will swing entirely on how their 19-20 year old bodies develop. You’ll hear the name Marvin Williams come up a few times - more on this later - as he’s one of the best recent NBA examples of a guy whose body developed in a way that completely changed his playing style and thus outcome of his career; and finally,
As you’ll see with a couple of these guys, I think we’re getting a bit ahead of ourselves again in overrating the European basketball players coming over for the draft this year. Noa Essengue, you’re probably first on the chopping block, bud
Alright, onto the top 14 + a little extra!
Ryan’s Top 14 NBA Prospects
1. Cooper Flagg (Duke)
All NBA; the somehow always dripping wet version of a basketball “killer” that Jayson Tatum thinks he should be, but knows deep down, he is not (all with a splash of AK47)
Well this one is easy! One of the best #1 picks we’ve seen in a while; the only real debate is whether you think Flagg is a better prospect than Zion Williamson was also coming out of Duke. The sure things of sure things, Flagg will immediately make an impact on the Mavs, adding playmaking, flexible defense, and a competitive motor that will provide the best possible salve to help heal the still gaping hole in the middle of Mavericks’ fans’ hearts. Nico, we don’t know what blood magic you used to do it, but you did it. Enjoy your last year with the team, my friend!
2. Dylan Harper (Rutgers)
All NBA; if Tyreke Evans parlayed his RotY-winning 20-5-6 stat line into future development and dominance, instead of… well, whatever the fuck we want to call the rest of his career
Another easy one, IMO. Harper is a big lead guard at 6ft 4.5 inches w/o shoes, with a +6 wingspan at 6ft 10.5 inches, and a 215lb frame to top it all off. The thing that impressed me the most in reviewing Harper’s tape is the insane body control and balance he had at all times. Life couldn’t have been easy for him playing on a Rutgers team with three middling starters, a black-hole “co-star” on the wing, and basically zero space to operate. But somehow he made it work, primarily by using his smarts, big body, and craft to consistently generate pressure at the rim: the guy averaged over 4 non-fastbreak shot attempts at the rim per game (one of the best numbers among non-bigs) and converted them at a 65% clip, both pretty ridiculous numbers considering he was a freshman playing with little to no space.
So what does a world look like where Tyreke Evans continued to develop and take advantage of his huge physical talents as a lead guard? Harper’s about to show us, but I think it looks like some combination of Sixers-era James Harden, 2024-25 Cade Cunningham, and Jaylen Brown, if the latter was able to consistently dribble. Sky is truly the limit for Harper as a jumbo guard and, holy shit, I cannot believe another prospect like that is going to the Western Conference… may need to wait longer than expected to get your first All Star berth, sorry Dylan!
3. VJ Edgecombe (Baylor)
All NBA; someone said “Victor Oladipo” and now I can’t unsee it, but I also get Donovan Mitchell flashes
VJ Edgecombe sounds like an athletic dude’s name. In this case, it’s spot on. As either the #1 or #2 pure athlete in this class, VJ developed a shocking number of tools after just being the “who is that freaky athletic young dude?” on the Bahaman Olympic squad a year ago. He has an elite first step to blow by guys, is way stronger than his 6’4, 195lb frame might imply, and has a way better looking jumpshot than a guy with the “athlete” tag should have. On both sides, but particularly on defense, VJ is relentless: he’s twitchy but not overreactive, ready and willing to get his chest into guys to cut off angles, has loose hips to change direction in mirroring his opponent, and obviously athletic enough to contest pretty much any move someone can throw at him.
I think the thing that reminds me so much of Oladipo and Mitchell, at least in their NBA careers, is that Edgecombe mostly plays in a very visually smooth manner, but occasionally will bust out these violent, top 1% athlete moves that leave you confused what happened and how it happened so fast. The play here at 1:03 best showcases that kind of violence.
There’s no way that he should be able to get from a crouched jump stop to an explosive layup at the rim that fast, but he does.
Now there are some concerns with Mr Edgecombe, the biggest two of which are: (1) his handle leaves something to be desired, particularly his left hand, which is significantly less polished than his right and (2) he oddly just hasn’t been very good at converting at the rim, only hitting 49% (yikes!) of his non-transition attempts at the rim this past season. Part of this has to do with the shaky left hand which, unlike his right, prevents him from leveraging his body control and burst to finish at harder angles, but part of it is that he does have a slight aversion to contact when driving hard to the rim. I’m guessing with his work ethic and beefing out a bit, this problem will eventually be resolved, but it certainly did give me pause when thinking about him as my #3 overall prospect.
4. Kon Knueppel (Duke)
All Star; Desmond Bane with weighted heels
Remember before the tournament when we all thought that Kon, affectionally known in my house as K-Nips, was gonna be a steal for someone at the end of the lottery. How innocent we were; how foolish.
Knueppel is just a “basketball player”. It’s a stupid phrase when it’s overused, but in this case, it’s 100% the right descriptor for the guy. He just knows where to be, what he is and isn’t capable of, and has the unique skill of putting himself in a position to succeed wherever, whenever on both sides of the court. An ultimate glue guy with high end shooting skill, plus he’s got great size at 6’5, 220lb, allowing him to potentially play any position 1-3 on an NBA court.
I think my favorite thing about him though, and the thing that really gives me confidence that he will be able to make up for his lack of athleticism, is how good he is finishing off two feet. Kon will be bottom of the leaderboards every year in terms of dunks / 36 minutes, but his elite, already polished ability to finish around the rim is because he knows how to do it off of two feet. This clip at 2:07 really showcases that skill: Kon runs a flex cut off the screen, gets the ball surrounded by two defenders, and, jumping off two feet, keeps the ball high, and finishes without trouble.
Watch the full 4:00 minute video from my good friend “JP Rickus” if you want to see more examples, but it’s this already refined skill out of Kon that tells me that (1) he’s painfully self-aware of who he is and (2) will do the things necessary to still be effective, unsexy and all.
Thus ends the “safe” section of the draft IMO.
5. Tre Johnson (Texas)
All Star; Nick Young on the best possible night of his career
Now we’re getting a little bit riskier here. Tre Johnson has the best jump shot in this class, a high releasing, buttery stroke that he used to drop threes all around the arc, often from NBA range. He’ll have a 10 year NBA career on that skill and that skill alone. He’s that good of a shooter, and with a 6’5 frame and 6’10 wingspan, it’s basically impossible for any guard to contest. He can shoot 3s from anywhere: 40% overall; 38.4% off the dribble; and 40.8% on catch and shoot 3s. Elite, elite numbers.
So why is he risky? Well, he has a bunch of red flags that should absolutely terrify any team thinking of taking him top 5:
Defensively, he generally knew where to be when guarding off-ball, but far too often got taken off the dribble when guarding 1:1;
He averaged only 2.7 assists / game, despite his high usage rate. Typically shot the ball if he had it;
Did not (and could not) generate consistent pressure at the rim, due to a mediocre first step and overall just okay athleticism. When he did get to the rim, it wasn’t pretty either, finishing only 46.5% of his shots at the rim; and
Pretty contact avoidant in general due to only weighing 190lbs, showing up both on offense when driving (where he far too often got pushed off his line) and on defense, where he expectedly got put in the weight room vs bigger guards + wings
So why do I still have him at 5? Well, he supposedly has the most important skill on the basketball court. No, not shooting… heart! Johnson is supposedly a very hard worker, confident in his skill but also aware of where his frame and current weaknesses hold him back. That plus being the best, most dynamic shooter in the class makes him worth the risk at 5.
6. Nolan Traore (France)
All Star; Lonzo Ball during that third of the 2021-22 Bulls season when the Bulls were really fun
A year ago, Traore was a no doubt, top 10 prospect in this draft class. Then his season with Saint-Quentin started, and Traore fell from being the #1 Wanted (French)Man to some guy that maybe the Heat are targeting in the 20s. And you know what? I just don’t get it! I’m seeing all the same shit that wowed me a year ago, just with some worse shooting numbers now that he’s playing in the 2nd toughest basketball league in Europe.
So why do I like the guy? Here are some highlights to get you started.
I think the #1 thing that stands out to me about Mr Traore is his first step. He’s not the most athletic dude in the world, that much is clear, but the guy will immediately step onto an NBA court with a top 1% first step. It’s so fast, and so bizarre to watch because the rest of his body just doesn’t look like it’s keeping up with him, but somehow he makes it work.
He’s an incredible passer - likely only behind BYU’s Egor Demin in this year’s class - but isn’t too flashy. Overall, he plays with an incredible pace, and is able to generate looks for himself and his teammates at all three levels of the floor. He’s not the biggest guy at 6’3, 175lbs but his 6’8 wingspan allows him to find success even around the basket, where he used that length and craft to finish 56% of his non-transition shots at the rim. That’s a great number for a just-turned 19 year old.
The shot is a bit inconsistent, yes, with a very, very cold start to the year from beyond the arc leading to a nasty 30% 3P% on the season. But he improved as the year went on, shooting 22/55 from 3 (40%) since the calendar turned on just under 4 attempts a game. He’s going to need some serious coaching to get the jumpshot more consistent, as these kind of wild swings between hot and cold have been way too consistent for Nolan, but the base is there.
Overall, I just like betting on a guy that has pedigree and two skills that compound on one another in an elite first step and elite court vision. Am I terrified I’m backing the next Killian Hayes? Sure, but who isn’t?! Gotta live a little at some point!
7. Walter Clayton Jr (Florida)
All Star; Jamal Murray except he can probably make an All Star team (sorry Jamal)
I’m hoping to be pleasantly surprised on draft night by some team taking this guy in the lottery, but right now I’m pissed.
How could anyone watch what this guy did throughout the NCAA tournament and think he’s going to be anything but a star in the NBA? Part of me gets it: we are betting on an exception here in a 6’2 shooting guard with a 6’4 wingspan being able to dominate as a shooter in the league. Those guys typically don’t become All Stars, or even more than just an average NBA player.
But we all watched what he did in March this year. The exception is worth betting on because Walter Clayton Jr has the one skill you need to make it work as a T-Rex SG in the NBA: a perfectly compact, high-release jumpshot that you can get to regardless of what the lower half of your body is doing. Just watch his highlights vs an elite defensive team in TTU in the Elite 8, specifically focusing on how consistent his form is up top, regardless of how he got into the shot or what’s going on around him.
That’s the special skill that allows guys like Jamal Murray and Devin Booker, despite not having elite height or a + wingspan, to get their shot off easily, consistently, and effectively.
The next one of those is staring us in the face. I wouldn’t let him drop past 10.
8. Cedric Coward (Washington State)
All Star; the secret, Toronto lovechild of old Kawhi and Pascal Siakam
What a rise for this guy, huh? With a last name like that coming from a DIII school initially? What a rise!
Cedric has a pretty unique playing style, much of it due to his ridiculous 6’5, 205lb frame with a +9(!!) 7’2 wingspan. This 30 point game vs Northern Colorado may not be the highest level of competition, but does showcase everything he brings to the table.
He has a lot of practice in the post from his DIII days, so you get a bit of bully-ball highlights on the block, but you also see the Siakam-like in-between game, where instead of a floater, he’s happy to fade away and use his length to get a jumpshot off at the top of the key. He has a silky smooth jump shot (considering his wildly long arms and giant hands), shooting 39% from 3 for his career, and the length to finish creatively and consistently around the rim, with a career 72% shooting mark on 2 pointers. On top of that, he shows off some of his passing chops as well as how suffocating his length can be as a defender.
Our very worst case scenario here is that Coward turns into a worse version of Mikal Bridges, a competent 3&D wing that leaves you wanting just a bit more offensively. But I think his meteoric rise over the last couple years points to higher heights.
9. Khaman Maluach (Duke)
3rd Best Player; poor man’s Mitchell Robinson with wayyyy better hands
Excited to hear all the mispronunciations of this guy’s name this next year (and not so excited to have to copy and paste his name every time I’m trying to text about him).
I’m a little bit lower on Maluach compared to the general consensus. I like the way he moves, love his 20%+ offensive rebounding rate, and in general, think it’s wise to bet on 7+ footers with 7’7 wingspans that just started playing basketball at the age of 13, while crucially, focused on playing soccer beforehand. All that is great.
On the other hand, we have his hips. As a wise man (RIP) once said, “It’s all in the hips”, and Maluach’s hips, although mobile enough to allow him to defend on the perimeter fairly effectively, are pretty high, giving him a really high center of gravity. The guy may play at 250lbs, but with his center of gravity as high as it is, I have a hard time seeing him ever being effective vs the likes of a Jokic, Embiid, even Sengun. On top of that, I worry that once he’s in the league regularly facing other guys that are 7ft, 250lb+, a lot of his rebounding skill will be significantly hampered. It’s just too easy to get knocked off your spot when your center of gravity is that high.
On offense, there’s a theoretical corner 3 there (despite him only shooting 25% from beyond the arc in limited attempts at Duke), but the big concern is the hands. Now I mentioned that his comp is Mitchell Robinson with wayyyy better hands. You’d think that means that Maluach has soft, capable hands, but no, that was more a dig at Mitchell Robinson’s stone mitts. Maluach struggled on basically anything but a clear layup or clean lob this past season, getting consistently stripped or bobbling the ball should he ever need to bring it down. There’s a lot of room for growth here considering, again, he’s only been playing a hands-based sport for 5-6 years, but it’s definitely a concern and may be a limiting factor long term.
Overall though, you can’t teach size and the kind of mobility Maluach showed this past season, so I can’t bring myself to put him any lower than #9 here.
10. Thomas Sorber (Georgetown)
3rd Best Player; what the Suns imagined they were getting when they brought in Jusuf Nurkić
Basically the opposite version of Maluach, Thomas Sorber out of Georgetown is currently out with a foot injury, but will play in the league for a long time. He may not be as tall as you’d like from your center at only 6’9, but makes up for it with his massive frame (260lbs) and 7’6 wingspan. He might set the best screens of anyone in this class, which… you know… makes sense with the whole 6’9, 260lbs thing.
The thing that impressed me the most about Sorber is just his feel for the game as a freshman center. His big night vs Providence shown here allows him to shine in a bunch of different ways.
Here he shows off a potential 3pt shot - which we’re not banking on, to be clear, considering he shot 16.2% from 3 for the year lol - but more crucially, just shows a feel for the game, using his frame to get his shot off around the rim despite being fairly ground-bound, and some nascent skills as a passer at the top of the key. For all his faults, Jusuf Nurkic is a very good passing center and (usually) knows his role within the offense. I think Sorber could very easily fill a similar roll as a guy that won’t be challenging Jokic for any assist titles, but can run your offense effectively for portions of the game.
11. Kasparas Jakučionis (Illinois)
3rd Best Player; a reigned-in Spencer Dinwiddie
Kasparas is a tough guy to evaluate. He started the year off so strong in non-conference play, then, right as B1G play was kicking off, he injured his forearm and basically didn’t look the same the rest of the year.
He’s another guy that has that magical feel word going for him. He’s 6’5 with a 6’8 wingspan and although he isn’t the best athlete, understands angles and change of pace well enough to navigate his way around the floor. His game vs Wisconsin (before the forearm injury) is a great showcase of his scoring prowess and feel.
His specialty though is running the pick and roll, where he’s comfortable enough to drag out defenders with his dribble and tall enough to make the reads that develop. His inconsistent 3pt shot will be a problem if he can’t settle things down, but Kasparas just seems like a guy that will be able to play a variety of roles in the NBA across a long career.
12. Carter Bryant (Arizona)
Starter; pick any of the 3&D players he named in this interview (Toumani Camara, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy)
It seems like nowadays, all the sexy, under the radar analytics darlings get found out early and rise up the draft boards accordingly. I miss the days like 5-6 years ago when being high on a 3&D guy from Arizona that averaged 6.5 PPG would make you special. Now I’m just another jackass that has him in the early teens 😔
Carter Bryant isn’t going to to fail in the NBA. I mean, did you read the players above that he’s trying to model his game after? Guy knows what he is, who they are, and what he needs to do to stick around and find a role. Respect, Mr Bryant. Respect.
13. Ace Bailey (Rutgers)
Starter; somewhere between what the pre-analytics NBA thought of Rudy Gay and what the post-analytics NBA thought of Rudy Gay
Alright, I guess I gotta talk about Ace Bailey now huh? 13 is far enough of a slide, right?
Let’s get the obvious part out of the way first: the way he and he his agent, Omar Cooper, have run this process is so unbelievably bad, it’s changed my perception of Ace Bailey from a talented, confident kid to a talented, potential headcase that may be a cancer on whatever team drafts him. You’re telling well run organizations in the top 5 not to draft you because you don’t think you’ll get enough shots your rookie year? What the fuck is wrong with you? That’s not how this works for a guy of your talent level, dude.
So let’s talk about the talent. Ace is an incredible scorer. He’s rangy, knows his spots, and can get his shot off against basically anyone due to his high release and high verticality on the “jump” part of the jumpshot. Like, this is a ridiculous 39 point performance vs Indiana. Here he screams NBA player and potential superstar.
But when he’s not on? Woooooof. The tape is not so friendly. Bailey’s handle is loose - he dribbles the ball way too high and recklessly. His shot selection… leaves a lot to be desired, despite his awareness of where his spots are. He can’t effectively get to the rim, and lord knows he’s not passing when he’s inevitably stopped in his pursuit of a layup (1.3 assists to 2.0 turnovers per game… 1.3 to 2!!). He doesn’t use his body well to shield the ball, basically just relying on jumping higher with a higher release point to either attempt a layup or get a shot off. When he’s on, he’s on and looks like a future superstar. But when it’s bad, and it’s going to be bad a lot of his first couple years in the league, it makes Cam Thomas look like the best teammate in the world.
What Ace should be doing is focusing on his unique defensive gifts - he’s quite good at chase down blocks - and growing into his frame, figuring out ways to score effectively within the boundaries of a team offense. But it doesn’t seem like that’s what he’s trying to do. So we’ll see in a couple years. Perhaps the talent is just that good and he becomes an elite, efficient scorer despite the poor process. I just have a hard time seeing it in today’s NBA.
But at 13? Ya, he’s worth the risk.
14. Jeremiah Fears (Oklahoma)
Starter; homeless man’s De’Aaron Fox
We have a guy named Coward and a guy named Fears in this draft, and the Nets somehow have 5 picks and could potentially get them both. Let us pray.
I don’t particularly like Fears as a prospect, despite him reclassifying to be a very young 18 year old prospect heading into this upcoming season. It’s pretty rare for a guard to move up a year in high school and produce the kind of numbers that Fears produced at Oklahoma this past year: 17/4/4 on 43/28/85 shooting splits.
So let’s start with the good: Fears is fast, like could potentially challenge Tyrese Maxey for fastest live dribble in the NBA fast. He’s got a great handle too, using his opponents’ Fears - I get one, right? - about his speed to create an initial advantage, before decelerating, getting a defender on his back, and attempting to finish through contact. He’s aggressive and isn’t afraid despite his 6’2, 180lbs frame, and was quite good at drawing fouls. All of that indicates that this 18 year old will find some success as a scorer in the league.
But the bad stuff is pretty bad! He did get to the rim fairly well, but shot a truly, truly horrific 44.5% on non-transition shots at the rim. Sure, he’ll grow into his body a bit as he gets older, but he doesn’t exactly scream, “I’m gonna be able to add 20 pounds of muscle to my frame”, does he?
On top of that, his feel for the game was… let’s call it lacking? The dude loved jumping without a plan, turning the ball over in a crowd, and in general, just didn’t really make his teammates better considering his high usage rate. On top of that, the defense was pretty terrible, not only getting beat in 1:1 situations by bigger guards and wings, but routinely falling asleep on backcuts and generally, just being out of position.
Sure, some of that is coachable, but the play style feels very “Jordan Clarkson”y to me. The talent is there though, and you can’t teach the kind of speed with the ball that Fears showcased all year, but I’d be fairly shocked if he ever turns into something more valuable than a microwave scorer, 3rd guard off the bench.
Unfortunately, the fever was too powerful, and I was unable to get the full 30 prospects I initially intended. You’re devastated. I’m devastated. We’re all devastated and running low on Pedialyte. Here are some other guys I have thoughts on though:
Noa Essengue (France) - remember the “high hips” issue I had with Maluach? Well Essengue has the same issue except he’s only 6’10, 200lbs. He’s not big enough to play center, that’s for sure, and he really can’t dribble or shoot well enough to play the 4, so what exactly are we all so excited about? It looks like the Raptors may take him at 9… good luck with that;
Derik Queen (Maryland) - my #15 prospect, I have no idea what Queen’s career will look like, but I am confident that he’s a basketball player. He will find some role in the NBA, even if it’s just Jared Sullinger 2.0 for a decade. His destiny is entirely going to be based on who drafts him and how his body develops, just like…
Collin Murray-Boyles (South Carolina) - Both Queen and Murray-Boyles remind me of the Marvin Williams story from the 2005 NBA Draft. Williams was an absolute monster at UNC, a high flying athlete that looked like the next great wing in the NBA. But through some combination of mid-2000s strength and conditioning and how he naturally filled out, Marvin Williams became far more ground bound, losing the vertical element that made him such an electric college player, and instead relying more on his strength and frame to be effective. The guy had a 15 year NBA career, so let’s not shed any tears for the fella, but I think both Queen and Murray-Boyles’ destiny will be determined by how they naturally fill out. Will Queen shed the baby weight and basically play like the highlight tape version of what Anthony Bennett was supposed to be, or will he continue to thicken up, stay on the ground, and be relegated to a bench role? Will Murray-Boyles, one of the strongest prospects this year, continue to add heft and strength, limiting his upside as a 4/5 tweener that can’t really shoot, or will he add explosiveness and agility (and a working jumpshot), allowing him to be the swiss army knife, defensive ace he’s currently being sold as? We’ll find out, I suppose!;
Jase Richardson (Michigan State) - has a great feel for the game and is a fantastic shot creator, but he’s 6’1 and legitimately doesn’t know how to use his right hand. Could be a Cole Anthony replacement for the Magic if things work out, or he could just be another undersized, one dimensional scoring guard that bounces around the league without a home;
Liam McNeeley (Connecticut), Danny Wolf (Michigan), Tyrese Proctor (Duke) - three guys that I am not at all confident what they’re going to do in the NBA long term, but I am confident they will find a role. McNeeley is too good of a shooter at size, Wolf is too skilled and big, and Proctor is too steady and solid of a shooter/playmaker;
Joan Beringer (France) - played soccer growing up and only started hooping four years ago at nearly 7ft tall. See Maluach above for frothing about that combo of facts; usually a guy I’m all in on. Beringer moves pretty well out there considering his size and lack of experience, and my god does he absolutely spike the ball on some of these blocks, but it’s hard to have too much confidence in a guy that looks like a baby deer running around out there at that size. Could be a huge mover in the Christmas ranks;
Johni Broome (Auburn) - obviously, comically not an NBA player… and finally;
Ryan Nembhard (Gonzaga) - led the NCAA in assists this past season and do you see the last name? Obviously an NBA player, even if it’s just your backup PG to steady the ship. Will be a steal somewhere in the late 2nd round
And that, frantically, feverishly, is it! Let me know what you agree, disagree on.
Time to start prepping for NFL season, I suppose!