2024 NBA Draft Breakdown
A breakdown of my favorite and least favorite players in the 2024 NBA Draft
The first draft in a decade that had GMs praying not to go #1, the 2024 NBA Draft is full of future rotation players and Zach Lowe’s Luke Walton All Stars, but lacks any obvious star power at the top. Just like the 2013 Draft that saw future Hall of Famer Giannis fall to pick #15 after Anthony Bennett went #1, someone in this group is going to separate themselves and make an actual All Star team. Your guess is as good as mine though, so I expect quite a bit of big misses and regrets for being stupid enough to put my rankings down on public paper.
Here I list my top 10 guys, each with what I think will be their highest level of career achievement (All NBA, All Star, 3rd best player, Starter, Bench) and their best NBA comp. After that, I throw up on the page for a few other players I like and a few I hate.
My Top 10
1. Donovan Clingan (Connecticut)
All NBA, Marc Gasol with a Day 1 nutritionist (it’s Ozempic, it’s always Ozempic)
What a mistake the Hawks are about to make, passing up on this guy. With one of the highest floors in the class and a DPOY ceiling, Clingan is the obvious #1 pick in my eyes. He has elite timing around the rim, fluid body mechanics in the open floor, underrated passing chops, the edges of a potential jump shot, and some of the most active hands I’ve ever seen from a big man in college. This should be easy, but I guess the intrigue of random 18 year old French dudes is too much to overcome!
2. Ron Holland (G League Ignite)
All Star, Best outcome: Jaylen Brown; Worst outcome: Nets-era Gerald Wallace
A pre-season top 3 pick in this draft, Holland had a rude awakening in the G League as he was forced to extend himself as the #1 ball handler for the Ignite. At 18 years old he dominated the ball with a 30% usage rate and his efficiency suffered accordingly, shooting only 24% from 3 with a 56.5% true shooting. But all of the intangibles that had him projected top 3 a year ago - 6’7 with a 6’11 wingspan, strong frame, solid shooting mechanics, and a desire to destroy his opponent on defense - didn’t suddenly disappear. His worst-case outcome is an elite 1-4 defender with a questionable jumpshot; his best-case is a guy that averages 25-6-4 and 3 “stocks” a game as a constantly attacking, foul-drawing menace
3. Reed Sheppard (Kentucky)
All Star, a better defending Donte DiVincenzo without all the Italian hype
Reed Sheppard shot 52.1% on 4.4 3PA / GM. This is an absolutely ludicrous number for a college freshman. He may not be all that big at only 6’2 with a 6’3 wingspan, but Sheppard produced elite defensive metrics: a 2.5% block rate and 4.5% steal rate, both fairly absurd for a guy that’s 6’2. Worst comes to worst, Sheppard has a career like Grayson Allen. Oh also, he’s a freshman guard coming out of Kentucky, a set of words that has a pretty good track record the last decade
4. Matas Buzelis (G League Ignite)
All Star, a shit-talking Toni Kukoč
I wanted to dislike Matas (particularly if he’s going to the Pistons), leaning into the similarities between him and Magic great Mario Hezonja, both super athletic small-ball 4s with shaky handles and a non-shooter, shooter reputation (Buzelis shot 26% from 3 on the Ignite). But then you watch him some more, see how solid his shooting form looks, the way he yammed on grown-ass men in the G League, and hear how passionate he is about defense (and talking shit), and you can start to see a path for Buzelis to dominate (despite my lack of confidence compared to my #1-3 guys above)
5. Alex Sarr (Perth Wildcats)
3rd Best Player, something something Jaren Jackson Jr
Just like his French colleague below, I am intrigued by Sarr’s upside due to elite flashes from a mobile frame, but am mostly just confused. Could be a bust and playing in France in five years, or could be an almost All Star.
6. Stephon Castle (Connecticut)
3rd Best Player, a less frustrating RJ Barrett with a splash of Andre Iguodala
I really want to believe that his jump shot is going to come together at some point, but I just don’t have a lot of evidence to give me any kind of faith. I trust that Castle has more “point guard” skills than he was allowed to show on UConn’s dominant 2024 championship team, but lead guards need to be able to shoot 3s in 2024
7. Tidjane Salaun (Cholet Basket)
Starter, a homeless, sorry, “unhoused” man’s Kevin Garnett
Salaun is a tough guy to evaluate. At times, his tape shows an 18 year old with an incredibly impressive feel for the game, unafraid to take purposefully wide open 3s and cutting behind the defense after a teammate’s drive for powerful dunks around the rim. Other times though, he looks like a surefire bust, unsure of where to be, what to do, and what not to do, turning the ball over and showing zero ability to finish around the rim if he’s not dunking, shooting only 41% (!!) on non-dunk attempts in the paint. His shot also needs a complete overhaul: tons of excess movement, wildly inconsistent footwork, way too much left hand involvement, all capped off with him holding his right hand out like he’s doing a decade-late impression of a flamboyant gay man. Despite all that, if he can figure out the excess of issues above, he has maybe the highest ceiling in the class. Big if…
8. Dalton Knecht (Tennessee)
Starter, a Rogaine-powered Bojan Bogdanović
Sure, he’s an old 23, but the guy absolutely torched the SEC last season, putting up 22 PPG via 40% shooting on his 6.5 3PA / GM. He’s never going to be an elite defender with his lateral quickness challenges, but I trust that he can be an average team defender and an efficient scorer on offense
9. Jonathan Mogbo (San Francisco)
Starter, a better passing Marvin Bagley III on that random 3rd Tuesday of every month when Marvin reminds us that taking him over Luka was just a horrible decision, instead of one of the worst draft day decisions of the last 25 years
A classic tweener, there’s absolutely a world where the 6’6 Mogbo fails to find a role between forward + center despite having a 7’2 wingspan. But I don’t see it; I see a guy that grew up playing guard before a late growth spurt and the steal of the draft in the early 2nd round!
Let’s get the glaring weakness out of the way first: Jonathan Mogbo, despite having a decent looking jumpshot, does not shoot 3s or even long 2s. Oh, and he’s old, turning 23 right at the start of the 2024 - 25 season. Everything else though? Mogbo does at at least a serviceable level. An elite rebounder despite only being 6’6 - his 22% rebound rate was 4th in the nation, right behind that tall fella Zach Edey - Mogbo is quick to grab the rebound and go, spraying the ball all over the court, leading to a ludicrous 24% assist rate and 7.4 assists / 100 possessions, a number in line with Alperen Sengun (7.4) and Jusuf Nurkić (7.1). And Mogbo can do it in the halfcourt too, scoring 1.07 points per possession on postups (86th percentile).
All in all, this guy was a pain in the ass to play against and I’m way too excited about what he can do if he’s given a proper chance
10. Carlton “Bub” Carrington (Pittsburgh)
Starter, Warriors-era Shaun Livingston with a 3 point shot
“Bub” Carrington is an incredible nickname and undoubtedly influenced my decision to put him in the top 10. Bub’s cousin is Rudy Gay and you can kinda see the influence in how the former plays. Bub displays very advanced shotmaking for an 18 year old, using his elite ability to stop on a dime to generate effective pull up jump shots all over the floor. Defensively, he leaves something to be desired, but with a +4 6’8 wingspan vs his 6’4 height, he’ll have an opportunity to be average on that side of the floor. I am definitely a bit nervous about the difficulty of Bub’s shot diet - he rarely put pressure on the rim - but having this advanced of a bag + averaging a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio as an 18 year old freshman gives me some confidence
Other Players I Like
11. Kel’El Ware (Indiana)
It’s an absolute miracle I didn’t put this guy in the top 10 because his highlights and stats look like a perfect replica of Myles Turner: Mr. Ware averaged 16/10/1.5 with 1.9 blocks + 0.6 steals, shooting 42.5% from 3, all while having that Superman-esque first name. Pretty damn good! So why isn’t he in the top 10? Unfortunately, Kel’El, although not as egregiously as his freshman season, was pretty goddamn lazy on the court, taking whole quarters off, setting absolute dogshit screens despite being 7ft, and mucking up the offense by doing his best jellyfish impression. The intangibles are there though, so perhaps this is a similar situation to Dereck Lively last year and the NBA game gives him the space and kick in the tuchus he needs
12. Rob Dillingham (Kentucky)
Another Kentucky guard, Rob will enter the league ready to challenge fellow Wildcat Tyrese Maxey for the “fastest player in the open court” title. He needs to put on serious weight from his current 165lbs if he’s going to have even a slight chance of being a workable defender, but offensively, he was only slightly worse from 3 than his teammate Sheppard, shooting 44.4% on 4.5 3PA / GM
13. Yves Missi (Baylor)
Gives me some Jalen Duren vibes with a body chiseled from stone, but Missi lacks the vision + passing chops that Duren showed at Memphis. All that said, the biggest thing(s) going for Missi is that he’s a 7fter from Cameroon that grew up playing soccer, only having ~5 years of experience playing basketball. With a body like that and the soccer footwork as a foundation, Missi has quite the ceiling as a rim running anchor
14. Ja'Kobe Walter (Baylor)
Although lacking the lengthy resume that Kentucky has (had?) in producing quality NBA guards, I’m beginning to blindly trust guards coming out of Baylor after three years of competent guard-play from Davion Mitchell, Jeremy Sochan (let’s not debate this one), and Keyonte George. Walter didn’t show much to earn that trust in his one year at Baylor - shot just over 40% at the rim in B12 games, with a mediocre 3P% (34.1%), and good-not-great team defense - but the Baylor resume and Walter’s frame + stroke do just enough to land on the “Like” list
15. Zach Edey (Purdue)
He’s going to figure something out. The guy is too skilled and too big to be a net negative, at least during the regular season
16. Oso Ighodaro (Marquette)
Just spend 5 minutes watching this interview and realize that Oso has a 40 inch vertical and can pass the shit out of the ball
17. Ryan Dunn (Virginia)
Ryan will need to do a total rip and replace on his shot, but all he needs to do is hit ~33% of his (likely wide-open) 3s to stick around in the league. He is that special defensively
Guys I Hate
1. Zaccharie Risacher (JL Bourg)
The projected #1 pick to Atlanta may have himself a nice career, relying on a good looking shot and the ideal frame to knock them down all over the floor. A Harrison Barnes-like career is not out of reach. I personally just don’t see it. He has a relatively tight handle for a 6’9 forward, but the way that he plays requires wayyyy more than “relatively tight” to be successful. Far more damning for Risacher is his finishing package around the rim, or more specifically, his complete lack of one (watch this one, it’s embarrassing). The stats tell the story here: Risacher made a career high 47% of his shots at the rim in halfcourt sets this past season, improving on the previous two years’ FG% of 38%, yes… a career high of 47%. He’ll work on it and get better as he fills out, but this is not the profile of a guy that should be going #1 overall
Should I just leave Risacher here as the only guy I hate?…
(Alright, here’s the rest: Cody Williams, Tyler Kolek, Isaiah Collier, Tristan Da Silva, Kyle Filipowski)