NFL Week 17 Saturday Picks ATS (2024)
Week 17 spread and total picks for the Saturday trio of NFL games, with a few prop bets along the way
Hope everyone had a lovely Christmas and took advantage of ⭐️ bets going 5-3 (and props gaining +5.31 units)! Three posts for the excessive amount of football we have spread out this week.
Saturday games - let’s go!
Betting Record:
Christmas Trio:
Against the Spread: 3-0 (100%)
Totals: 1-2 (33.3%)
Prop Bets: 10.3-8.5 (+5.31 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 5-3 (48.4%)
Last Week:
Against the Spread: 8-7-1 (53.3%)
Totals: 11-5 (68.8%)
Prop Bets: 24-38.5 (-10.05 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 15-16 (48.4%)
Overall Record (includes Christmas trio):
Against the Spread: 109-121-9 (47.4%)
Totals: 123-116-3 (51.5%)
Prop Bets: 301.6-346.5 (+20.84 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 206-172-3 (54.5%)
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Drake Maye finally had himself a good first half of football last week - congrats to everyone on the Patriots staff! - before the Bills got serious and put the clamps down in the 2nd half of the game. We’ll talk a bit more about Buffalo tomorrow, but it seems to me that this team was/is resigned to their fate as the #2 seed in the AFC and are just going to try to do the bare minimum to go 3-0 vs this Pats-Jets-Pats stretch they have to close the year. We’ll see if Josh Allen as the MVP favorite can survive that approach.
My first instinct on this game was to grab the +5.5 with the Patriots. In previous iterations of this Chargers team, this would absolutely be a game they’d be liable to lose, either in a 9-6 slug fest or by the defense getting absolutely boat-raced. But Brandon Staley is safely up in San Francisco and Jim Harbaugh doesn’t fuck around vs bad teams, and definitely isn’t going to fuck around in this “win and in” game for the soon-to-be-playoff-bound Chargers.
Ladd McConkey should have a field day here vs this Patriots defense, as Christian Gonzalez is a fantastic talent, but is better suited to contain the Quentin Johnstons. On top of that, the Pats other outside corner Jonathan Jones is officially out for this game, aka the Pats thin secondary got even thinner.
Only concern for the Chargers at the moment is the question at running back, as Gus Edwards is out with an ankle injury and JK Dobbins, recently activated of the IR, is still questionable to go. Well that and the rain that’s forecasted for this game.
The backup backup RB would likely be Michigan man Hassan Haskins which uh… isn’t great, but I’m feeling somewhat confident about Dobbins giving it a go to make one last effort to cash my JK Dobbins Comeback Player of the Year +3000 tickets. I believe in you JK!
The picks: Chargers -5.5, ⭐️ Over 42.5 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): the McConkey show…
⭐️ 6pt teaser: Chargers -5.5, Rams -6.5 (-120) ⭐️
6pt teaser: Chargers -5.5, Broncos +3.5, Rams -6.5 (+180)
Drake Maye over 20.5 completions (-112)
Drake Maye over 27.5 rushing yards (-112)
0.5u Maye 40+ rushing (+210)
⭐️ Hunter Henry over 4.5 receptions (+100) ⭐️
Henry 6+ receptions (+184)
Justin Herbert over 1.5 passing TDs (+106)
Ladd McConkey longest reception over 24.5 (-108)
⭐️ Ladd McConkey over 5.5 receptions (-120) ⭐️
McConkey 7+ receptions (+162)
⭐️ (FD) Ladd McConkey 25+ receiving yards each half (+150) ⭐️
⭐️ (FD) Ladd McConkey 1+ reception each quarter (+200) ⭐️
⭐️ (FD) Ladd McConkey 5+ receiving yards each quarter (+300) ⭐️
Don’t have any lines up as of writing here, but I’m going to love either Will Dissley’s receiving props over or if he doesn’t play, Stone Smartt’s receiving props over. Patriots have been getting absolutely torched by TEs the last month, giving up over 8 catches and over 70 yards per game to the position (and that’s including their game vs the Colts who don’t really have or use a TE in the passing game). As for that trio of FanDuel McConkey props, they may kill my winning % on these ⭐️ bets, but I am confident at least one of them comes through
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
The Broncos +3.5 seems like the right side. The Bengals are on a three game winning streak after squeaking out three unimpressive wins vs the Cowboys, Titans, and Browns, now desperately needing two losses from the Broncos to have a slight chance of making the playoffs as the team “nobody wants to see in the 1st round". This game vs the Broncos is fairly important in accomplishing that goal, but the Broncos are in the way. Not sure that sentence worked, but roll with me here, it’s my 2nd article this week with one more to go.
The Broncos defense struggled last week vs the Chargers and hasn’t been the stellar unit we saw earlier in the year ever since white CB Riley Moss got injured in Week 12 vs the Raiders, but he’s back this week, ready to try to contain the Bengals WR duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (that have been absolutely crushing opposing secondaries for months now).
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals defense, well… it still sucks, kinda a problem vs this weird Broncos offense that can’t run the ball and barely has any receiving weapons, but somehow is putting up 24.2 PPG, good for 10th most in the league. Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix will need to be aggressive here if the Broncos hope to outscore the Bengals in the most hostile environment he’ll have faced this season. I didn’t love the guy coming out of college, but for some reason, I have confidence that the duo of Bo Nix’s legs and Courtland Sutton will find a way to keep this game within 3.
The picks: ⭐️ Broncos +3.5 ⭐️, Over 50
Prop Bet(s): a little…
0.5u Broncos alt -2.5 (+202)
0.5u Broncos alt -3.5 (+245)
⭐️ Bo Nix longest rush over 10.5 yards (-110) ⭐️
⭐️ Bo Nix over 20.5 rushing yards (-108) ⭐️
Nix 25+ rushing (+138)
0.5u Nix 40+ rushing (+445)
Courtland Sutton over 66.5 receiving yards (-108)
Ja'Marr Chase under 91.5 receiving yards (-108)
I’m scared too, it’s okay
⭐️ Chase Brown longest reception over 13.5 yards (-120) ⭐️
⭐️ Chase Brown over 27.5 receiving yards (-116) ⭐️
Brown 40+ receiving (+192)
0.5u Brown 50+ receiving (+255)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
I’d be more inclined to back the Cardinals here if they weren’t so banged up, but their defense has a bunch of guys limping into this game and the straw that stirs the drink, James Connor, is supposedly playing in this game despite suffering a knee injury last week and walking into free agency this summer. Not sure about that decision, James!
Lots of good trends saying this a Rams spot despite the big -6.5 line: the Stafford/McVay duo are an insane 12-1 SU and ATS in December games, and Kyler Murray has been terrible vs the Rams, going 2-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in their 10 meetings.
We like the Rams.
The picks: Rams -6.5, ⭐️ Under 47.5 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): a little…
Alt under 44.5 (+138)
0.5u Alt under 41.5 (+205)
0.5u Alt under 38.5 (+300)
⭐️ Kyler Murray over 32.5 pass attempts (-110) ⭐️
James Conner under 58.5 rushing yards (-110)
⭐️ Marvin Harrison Jr over 49.5 receiving yards (-112) ⭐️
Harrison Jr 60+ receiving (+138)
0.5u Harrison Jr 70+ receiving (+205)
0.5u Harrison Jr 80+ receiving (+300)
⭐️ Demarcus Robinson over 1.5 receptions (-112) ⭐️
0.5u Robinson 3+ receptions (+255)
Demarcus Robinson over 16.5 receiving yards (-112)
0.5u Robinson 25+ receiving (+160)
0.5u Robinson 40+ receiving (+365)
0.25u SGP: Kyler Murray 200+ passing, Marvin Harrison Jr 50+ receiving, Demarcus Robinson 2+ receptions, Robinson anytime TD (+964)
The Rams still cannot defend boundary receivers. Congrats Marvin Harrison Jr - you may actually get some targets this week!
See ya tomorrow.