NFL Week 12 Picks ATS (2024)
Week 12 spread and total picks for every NFL game, with a few prop bets along the way
Last weekend was fun. Ravens-Steelers was an awesome, gritty AFC North battle in the morning; Chiefs-Bills was tense the entire game, and the sideshow Seahawks-49ers game was full of drama as well; and obviously, the SNF Bengals-Chargers game was a personal rollercoaster of emotions for me, as both teams decided who was going to lean into their franchise’s worst habits more (and last).
This week? Ehhhhh, not as exciting.
And with that… this overall writeup? Ehhhhh, not my best.
But hey! We’re here, we’re reading, we had our first losing week on ⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets, we’re on a hot streak picking Totals again, and most importantly, we’re having fun.
Onto Week 12!
Betting Record:
Last Week:
Against the Spread: 9-5 (64.3%)
Totals: 9-5 (64.3%)
Prop Bets: 27-34.5 (-5.28 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 17-19 (47.2%)
Overall Record:
Against the Spread: 72-85-5 (45.9%)
Totals: 89-76-1 (53.9%)
Prop Bets: 151.8-159 (+30.06 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 118-84 (58.4%)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
I think we’re all pretty thankful that I didn’t have to accost everyone with a bunch of stats about how bad Mike Tomlin is as a favorite on the road, particularly in-division. Great win for the Browns in this year’s (almost) rendition of the Cleveland swirl-bowl game where nobody can throw the ball more than 15 yards down the field.
The picks: Browns +3.5, Under 36.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers are on a two game win streak after beating the Saints and Giants before last week’s BYE. This is the first win streak they’ve had since they ripped off three in a row to start the 2021 NFL season, also known as the last time Sam Darnold fooled us with his “Sam Darnold?!” first four games routine, before ending the year with his “Oh, right… Sam Darnold” routine. First four games in 2021: 5 TDs / 3 INTs. Last eight games: 4 TDs / 10 INTs.
(Just in case you’re wondering, Sam Darnold this year… First four games in 2024: 11 TDs / 3 INTs. Next six games: 8 TDs / 7 INTs)
But this isn’t a Sam Darnold discussion! Hell, this isn’t much of a discussion at all cause this game is probably going to suck! The Chiefs will try to do the bare minimum for a win as they get ready to play the 2nd annual Black Friday NFL game vs the Raiders, and the Panthers, well, they’re still the Panthers.
The picks: Panthers +10.5, ⭐️ Under 43.5 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): ⭐️ Kareem Hunt over 18.5 rushing attempts (-130) ⭐️, SGP: Chiefs alt -2.5, Kareem Hunt 60+ rushing yards, Hunt anytime TD, Chuba Hubbard 40+ rushing yards (+243)
I’m not sure this Chiefs offense is willing (capable?) of putting up 40+ points vs a bad defense, so think this may be closer than the Chiefs -10.5 line indicates. Hunt will get a ton of carries though and the Panthers will continue to run the ball aggressively. Feel good about that SGP
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts
This line is fishy. And it makes sense: over the last decade, teams that won their previous game by 35+ points are only 23-34-1 (40.1%) ATS in the following game. And this week? This week the Lions get to face the new and improved Anthony Richardson, a man I have already accepted is about to play as a top 5 fantasy QB for the next six weeks to make my “Anthony Richardson sucks and will be QB17 on the year” take far less easy to defend after he singlehandedly wins hundreds of people a fantasy championship (isn’t fantasy the best?).
The Colts run defense was a bottom 5 unit at the start of the year, but through coaching and getting healthy, they’ve found themselves closer to average the last few weeks. The Lions will certainly give us an official reading on how real that improvement is, but god, I just can’t shake the feeling that Anthony Richardson will have a chance to win the game on a final drive later today. That was a radically different QB operating in the pocket last week vs the Jets. A one week mirage of a QB I dislike(d) going from a 44.4% season-long completion rate to hitting 20/30 attempts vs a top 10 pass defense, or is there something truly powerful about sitting for two weeks and holding space for the greatness within each of us?
Let’s trust our gut here.
The picks: Colts +7.5, Over 50.5
Prop Bet(s): a decent amount for such a short writeup…
Anthony Richardson anytime TD (+185)
Anthony Richardson over 7.5 rushing attempts (-115)
Anthony Richardson over 41.5 rushing yards (-110)
0.5u Richardson 50+ rushing (+144)
⭐️ Alec Pierce longest reception over 17.5 (-120) ⭐️
⭐️ Alec Pierce over 28.5 receiving yards (-120) ⭐️
Pierce 40+ receiving (+170)
0.5u Pierce 50+ receiving (+285)
0.5u Pierce 60+ receiving (+450)
⭐️ Jameson Williams longest reception over 21.5 (-120) ⭐️
⭐️ Jameson Williams over 42.5 receiving yards (-112) ⭐️
Williams 50+ receiving (+118)
0.5u Williams 60+ receiving (+185)
0.5u Williams 70+ receiving (+280)
0.5u SGP: Jameson Williams longest reception over 21.5, Jameson Williams anytime TD (+325)
Anthony Richardson 💙 Alex Pierce. As for Jameson Williams, the Colts still play a top 5 rate of zone defense, and Williams averages a fantastic 2.1 Yards per Route Run vs zone defense. Looks like another Williams week after going off vs the Jags and their zone-heavy scheme last week
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Will the Bears make it two ugly games in a row at home vs a divisional opponent? I think so!
The Vikings defense is kinda a nightmare for what the Bears want to do:
Elite vs the rush (with D'Andre Swift dealing with a groin injury)? ✅
Tons of disguised blitzes for your one-week-off-struggling rookie QB? ✅
Excellent at containing QB scrambles (3rd best EPA / play) to keep said QB uncomfortable and unproductive in a collapsing pocket? ✅
I understand that Sam Darnold is back in full Darnold form and going on the road vs an elite pass defense, but I have a hard time seeing Caleb leading this new quick-throw offense down the field enough times to keep pace with whatever the Vikings can muster up, even if that is just 14 points.
At least the Bears have some easier, confidence-building games to look forward to to close the year… oh what’s that?
Enjoy your last couple months in Chicago, Mr Eberflus.
The picks: ⭐️ Vikings -3 ⭐️, Under 39.5
Prop Bet(s): a smidgen…
⭐️ Vikings 1H -1.5 (-110) ⭐️
Vikings alt -6.5 (+148)
⭐️ Bears team total under 17.5 (-112) ⭐️
Bears team total under 14.5 (+166)
Caleb Williams over 4.5 rush attempts (-130)
Cole Kmet over 24.5 receiving yards (-110)
0.5u Kmet 40+ receiving (+245)
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
If Jayden Daniels miraculously healed his ribs and if OC Kliff Kingsbury was thoroughly convinced that it was Week 5 instead of Week 12, then maybe I could back the Commanders laying 10.5 points vs this shell of a Cowboys team.
But it’s not and that’s too many points!
The picks: Cowboys +10.5, ⭐️ Under 45.5 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): a little…
⭐️ Jayden Daniels under 38.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐️
Austin Ekeler over 19.5 receiving yards (-115)
⭐️ Brian Robinson Jr. over 16.5 rushing attempts (-110) ⭐️
⭐️ Luke Schoonmaker over 3.5 receptions (+114) ⭐️
0.5u Schoonmaker 5+ receptions (+210)
⭐️ Luke Schoonmaker over 26.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
0.5u Schoonmaker 40+ receiving (+210)
0.5u Schoonmaker 50+ receiving (+395)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
He’s baaaaaaaack!
Except this time, he wants to solely focus on football and not the Italians or the Cutlets or the finger thing I don’t know the name of or his agent or any of that other stuff. We’ll see how long that lasts after he gets sacked 8 times this weekend.
The picks: ⭐️ Buccaneers -5.5 ⭐️, Under 40.5
Prop Bet(s): just the right amount of spice…
⭐️ Giants team total under 17.5 (-124) ⭐️
0.5u Giants team total under 14.5 (+148)
Buccaneers alt -9.5 (+156)
0.5u Buccaneers alt -12.5 (+225)
⭐️ Bucky Irving longest rush over 15.5 (-110) ⭐️
⭐️ Bucky Irving over 53.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐️
Irving 60+ rushing (+126)
0.5u Irving 70+ rushing (+196)
0.5u Irving 80+ rushing (+290)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Drake Maye has some kind of spell on me because I’m going back to well despite the Pats not covering last week vs the Rams.
There are lots of reasons to not grab Pats +7.5:
Tua as a 6+ point favorite is 14-1 SU and 11-4 ATS;
Three key Patriots defenders are banged up and unlikely to play on Sunday: DT Christian Barmore, S Kyle Dugger, and CB Christian Gonzalez;
The Patriots are bad; and
The Dolphins are not bad and absolutely need this win at home if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive
And yet… this feels like a one score game to me (that I will absolutely write off next week if 2/3 injured Pats above don’t suit up).
The picks: Patriots +7.5, ⭐️ Over 46.5 ⭐️
Prop(s): the usual…
Alt over 50.5 (+160)
⭐️ Tua Tagovailoa over 23.5 pass completions (-110) ⭐️
⭐️ Jonnu Smith over 37.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐️
Smith 50+ receiving (+156)
0.5u Smith 60+ receiving (+250)
Drake Maye over 1.5 passing TDs (+170)
Kayshon Boutte over 33.5 receiving yards (-110)
0.5u Boutte 50+ receiving (+220)
⭐️ Rhamondre Stevenson over 2.5 receptions (-130) ⭐️
Stevenson 4+ receptions (+156)
Rhamondre Stevenson over 14.5 receiving yards (-115)
0.5u Stevenson 25+ receiving (+210)
How about Jonnu Smith just totally taking Jaylen Waddle’s role in this offense. Dolphins front office sure must be glad they signed the latter to a 3 year / $85mm ($76mm guaranteed) extension, huh?!
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
I have no idea what to do with this game.
The Titans still suck, but Will Levis looked shockingly better - low bar, but still - last week vs the Vikings, this Titans defense is still pretty strong vs the pass, and has the gigantic human beings in the middle of their DL to potentially give this shaky Texans OL some problems in the run game.
Which may be a problem because CJ Stroud and this passing game still don’t look very good. It would be a gross simplification to say that this offense is 90% Joe Mixon trucking guys for 8 yards a pop and Nico Collins absolutely embarrassing corners on posts, slants, and dig routes - what about the 1st and 10 runs for 1.5 yards, Ryan? - but it feels like that’s 90% of the offense.
That’s probably enough vs this uh… horrible(?) Titans offense, but just like the Lions game, I got a feeling about this one that I just can’t shake.
The picks: Titans +8, Under 40.5
Prop(s): ⭐️ Will Levis over 22.5 rushing yards (-128) ⭐️, Joe Mixon under 86.5 rushing yards (-110)
From last week, “I’m just as surprised as you are to see a Will Levis over be a ⭐️ Starred ⭐️ bet, but he does scramble quite a bit more than you may expect”
We’re riding it again after Levis ran 7 times for 18 yards in Week 11 vs a Vikings defense living in the backfield, something I expect this Houston defense to match
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Division game? First matchup was close, but not really?
🤷
The picks: Broncos -5.5, Over 41.5
Prop(s): Denver should do well…
⭐️ Bo Nix over 221.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐️
Bo Nix over 1.5 passing TDs (+130)
⭐️ Javonte Williams over 37.5 rushing yards (-108) ⭐️
Williams 50+ rushing (+195)
0.5u Williams 60+ rushing (+310)
0.5u Williams 70+ rushing (+500)
So much for Audric Estime, huh guys?! When are we going to learn to not trust Sean Payton and his RB committee?!… not this week for me, I guess
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks still have TE Brady Russell on the roster. This hunk of a man. How, tell me how, could I not post this picture again? Please, take another week to heal up Noah Fant; take the rest of the season!
This is purely a fade of the Cardinals hype for me. I liked them quite a bit preseason, but going into Seattle to win their 5th game in a row with a defense that’s still fundamentally lacking talent seems like a bit much to me. Also they had their BYE week last week, which IMO is not exactly what a team on a hot streak needs. We’ll see.
The picks: Seattle -1, Under 47.5
Prop(s): DK Metcalf will go off in one of these Cardinals matchups…
⭐️ DK Metcalf over 64.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
Metcalf 70+ receiving (+110)
0.5u Metcalf 80+ receiving (+156)
0.5u Metcalf 90+ receiving (+220)
And if we miss this week, we’re gonna bet that shit again in the Week 14 rematch
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Would’ve been fun to give you a long, deep analysis on this one - it was going to be “flip a coin”, in case you were wondering - but with no Brock Purdy and no Joey Bosa, this Packers team should comfortably roll vs backup QB Brandon Allen.
But these are still the 2024 Packers, a team that hasn’t really put anything together on either offense or defense, and certainly hasn’t put both of them together during a single, complete game. Perhaps this is Jordan Love’s re-coming out party, but there’s a bit of stink in the air with the Packers only laying 5.5 points at home…
The picks: Packers -5.5, Under 44.5
Prop(s): 0.5u Jordan Love 3+ passing TDs (+320)
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
With the rest of the NFC East falling apart, the Eagles don’t really need this game, but the Rams really do. That’s the extent of my analysis when it comes to why the Eagles are only laying 2.5 points “on the road” at a SoFi Stadium that will conservatively be 70% Eagles fans on Sunday night.
The Eagles defense, as we predicted early on, needed some time to gel as all Vic Fangio defenses do, but are operating as the best defense in the league right now. Can’t run the ball against them with Jalen Carter in the middle. Can’t throw the ball against them with the duo of Mitchell + Slay shutting down every top receiver.
The Rams only hope is that their DL gets enough pressure on Hurts to make this a messy game - entirely possible with all the in-and-out injuries the Eagles OL has been dealing with - but I just can’t in my right mind take a considerably worse Rams team that may have their key advantage (the Kupp-Nacua duo) taken away by a team playing their best ball of the year.
The picks: Eagles -2.5, ⭐️ Under 49 ⭐️
Prop(s): Eagles alt -6.5 (+170)
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers
I want to be excited about this game. We got John and Jim Harbaugh - yes, they’re brothers, can you believe it? - facing off, battling for their 85 year old father Jack’s love while they still can.
This game looks fucking fantastic on paper:
We have the #1 PPG defense in the league in the Chargers going against the Lamar Jackson-led, top 2 offense in the league Ravens;
We have the Chargers stud QB Justin Herbert going against a bottom 5 Ravens secondary, holding on for dear life in the 2nd half after the Ravens #1 run defense made life easy for them in the 1st; and, of course,
This is boosted by our last memory of the Chargers bringing a smile to our face, as they successfully were out-Chargered by the 2024 Cincinnati Bengals on SNF, propelling Herbert into the MVP discussion
I want to be excited for this game. I really do. But I think I know how this ends. It’s a deep, unshakable pit of a feeling… this ends with the Ravens totally dominating us.
The Chargers will not be able to run the ball. The talent + scheme isn’t there to overcome a dominant Ravens run defense. The Chargers may be able to throw the ball, as in Justin Herbert may fire an absolutely perfect laser to one of our receivers, but this game will likely feature multiple reminders of why Quentin Johnston had the worst rookie WR year in a long time. If I could bet on him having over 1.5 drops, I would. WR Ladd McConkey will get his, but he’s still banged up and the Ravens will limit his YAC opportunities.
And that’s just when the Chargers have the ball - here comes the real pain.
When the Ravens are on offense, I suspect they’ll find success in two key places: Lamar scrambles and perhaps most shockingly, passes to Rashod Bateman.
The Chargers play man coverage at a bottom 3 rate (13.7%). This leads to opportunities for scrambling QBs and puts the Chargers in a tough position.
Fundamentally, this Chargers defense is pretty light up front. They’ve found success on the back of creative play calling from DC Jesse Minter (please, please don’t go), limited mistakes, and have a flexibility / interchangeability between our LBs and secondary that keeps opponents guessing.
But if they face an offense with a scrambling QB like Kyler or Lamar that also wants to run the ball down your throat with a gigantic RB like James Connor or Derrick Henry, this Chargers team is kinda shit out of luck: don’t have the personnel to go man-heavy so have to pick between committing resources to keeping the QB contained or to stopping the 230+ pound RB from gaining 5+ yards every time he touches the ball.
When the Ravens do decide to pass though, Rashod Bateman turns into the WR us Bateman fans still (…maybe?) believe he can be. Here’s what the Ravens receiving breakdown looks like vs zone
Lots of targets for Bateman, but the real kicker is that 2.4 YpRR at the rightmost column there. That, that my friends, is gonna murder the Chargers on Monday night.
The picks: ⭐️ Ravens -2.5 ⭐️, Under 50.5
Prop(s): here come the Ravens…
Ravens alt -6.5 (+178)
0.5u Ravens alt -10.5 (+284)
0.5u Ravens alt -12.5 (+410)
⭐️ Justin Herbert over 19.5 rushing yards (-112) ⭐️
Herbert 25+ rushing (+144)
0.5u Herbert 40+ (+450)
⭐️ Will Dissly over 38.5 receiving yards (-112) ⭐️
0.5u Dissly 50+ receiving (+154)
⭐️ Lamar Jackson over 42.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐️
Jackson 50+ rushing (+126)
0.5u Jackson 60+ rushing (+200)
⭐️ Rashod Bateman over 37.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
Bateman 50+ receiving (+148)
0.5u Bateman 60+ receiving (+230)
0.5u Bateman 70+ receiving (+350)