NFL Week 11 Picks ATS (2024)
Week 11 spread and total picks for every NFL game, with a few prop bets along the way
Last week was a bit of a mixed bag:
Finally had a positive week picking ATS, going above .500 for the first time since Week 7, but did go 0-2 on my ⭐️ Starred ⭐️ ATS picks thanks to the incompetence of Sam Darnold (3 INTs!) and Jake Moody (3 missed FGs!!);
Still waiting for a week above .500 picking Totals - haven’t seen one since Week 3 - but did go .500 and more importantly (because again, we’re picking every game, not just the ones I like), went 5-0 on ⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Total bets;
Props was a bit of a disaster after I leaned too hard into Noah Brown, Najee Harris, Khalil Shakir, the Noah Gray/Justin Watson combo, and alt spreads for the 49ers + Vikings. The silver lining is that we did go 13-12 on ⭐️ Starred ⭐️ prop bets, so still a winning week; and
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ bets continue to drive ROI, going 18-14 (56.3%) in Week 10, but driving down our season-long record to only 101-65 (60.8%). Boo-fucking-hoo
As for this week, we have no shortage of awesome games and/or awesome storylines to dig into:
Are the Dolphins a sneaky playoff contender or are the Raiders going to pull another win out of their ass on the road?
Will Darren Rizzi take another massive shit at the Superdome and lead his squad to a victory over Jameis and the Browns?
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Can Anthony Richardson settle down after his two-week benching or will the Jets somehow figure out a way to revert their post-firing, 32nd ranked by EPA / play defense back to the top 5 unit that former HC Bobby Saleh crafted, or is this really going to be the most miserable Jets season in years (or any combo of the three)?
Does Jordan Love own the Bears the way that Rodgers did for so many years?
Can Kirk Cousins play a good game outside vs a top 5 Denver defense?
And then the obvious ones: Ravens-Steelers, Seahawks-49ers, Chiefs-Bills, and Bengals-Chargers
Hell of a Sunday to test if that old couch still hits the same. We have a perfect octo-box of games in the 1pm slot and Chiefs-Bills in the afternoon (with the Seahawks-49ers and Falcons-Broncos simmering in the back for commercial breaks). Looks like it could be a legendary NFL Sunday 🤞
Let’s dig in!
Betting Record:
Last Week:
Against the Spread: 8-6 (57.1%)
Totals: 7-7 (50.0%)
Prop Bets: 24-35 (-9.13 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 18-14 (56.3%)
Overall Record:
Against the Spread: 63-80-5 (44.1%)
Totals: 80-71-1 (53.0%)
Prop Bets: 124.8-124.5 (+30.06 units)
⭐️ Starred ⭐️ Bets: 101-65 (60.8%)
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
The 2nd half curse of Kliff Kingsbury - who the fuck names their kid “Kliff”? - appears to be in full swing, with his undersized QB taking too much damage over the first half of the season, and his play calling regressing. Ya hate to see it…
The picks: Eagles -4, Over 49.5
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
There are six, screaming-obvious teaser legs that I’m sure the public will be all over this week: Green Bay -5.5 at Chicago, Miami -7 vs Las Vegas, Minnesota -6 at Tennessee, San Francisco -6.5 vs Seattle, Chiefs +2 at Buffalo, and Bengals +1.5 at LAC. The last two are particularly interesting, with Mahomes only having three total losses by more than one score and the Bengals “needing” this win to keep their already shaky playoff hopes alive. Seems like a no brainer, right?
But we’re talking about the Packers-Bears game here, so let me refocus… why is this line only -5.5? I get that the last three times we watched the Packers they were squeaking out wins vs the Texans + Jaguars and, most recently, a box score-deceiving beatdown at home vs the Lions, but that’s significantly better than what the Bears have shown lately:
Week 8: 307 total yards, 15 points, 3 sacks, and a devastating, last second loss at Washington, a bottom 7 defense at the time;
Week 9: 241 total yards, 9 points, 6 sacks, and a monster beatdown at Arizona, a bottom 7 defense at the time; and
Week 10: 142 total yards(!!), 3 points, 9 sacks, and firing-worthy offensive performance at home vs New England, (say it with me) a bottom 7 defense at the time!
The Bears, still unwilling to fire a HC during the season, finally got rid of OC Shane Fraudron, something we all should celebrate. The guy knows how to turn a decent offensive line into a collection of matadors and refuses to put his weapons in the best position to succeed. Good fucking riddance.
In to replace him though? Passing game coordinator Thomas Brown, best known as the former NFL RB that spent three years coaching in the same room - yes, the very same room! - as Sean McVay, parlaying that into becoming the OC for the 2023-24 Carolina Panthers. You remember that team, don’t you? They went 2-15, had the worst offensive in the league, and got the #1 pick that ended up turning into Caleb Williams?
Now let’s be generous here: the 2023 Panthers went through a mid-season coaching change, had a height-challenged rookie at QB, the worst pass-catchers in the league, a porous OL, and had to deal with David Tepper day to day. It was not a good situation. But watching 30 minutes of film from the 2023 Panthers this week - why yes, I do hate myself! - the play designs weren’t exactly stellar, with or without the soon to be fired Frank Reich at the helm. The Panthers may not have had a single receiver that could consistently separate, but the play calling certainly didn’t seem to be aware of that fact.
All that to say, Thomas Brown is going to come in and run the ball a ton. He’s said so. The offense (and offensive line play) will certainly improve, but this is damn close to a situation where you cannot get any worse after giving up 18 sacks and scoring 27 points over a three week span. Things will be better because of that almost fact. Expect a way less complicated offense, a ton of carries for D'Andre Swift (and maybe even Roschon Johnson), screens, and quick passes (something that was notably lacking in the Shane Waldron offense).
I’m still a big time Caleb Williams believer - maybe should’ve mentioned him earlier, cause about 50% of those 18 sacks above are all on him, trying to prove some point that he can be some glorious pocket passer, I guess? - but I’ve written this season off already. Keep him upright, show some flashes, complete some passes to keep DJ Moore happy enough, fire Matt Eberflus like you should’ve done last summer, and retool for next year with the 5th most available cap space.
But again - gambling - why is this line only Packers -5.5? The Bears fired Waldron on Tuesday, so Thomas Brown had ~24 hours to change the game plan before install on Wednesday…? This line is fishy as all hell, so I’m going to go with the Bears, praying that this middling Packers defense gives up some big plays on the ground with the return of both starting OTs Braxton Jones + Darnell Wright, while the Bears defense bottles up the Packers passing attack.
The picks: Bears +5.5, Under 40.5
Prop Bet(s): a lot…
⭐️ D'Andre Swift over 16.5 rushing attempts (-122) ⭐️
⭐️ D'Andre Swift over 2.5 receptions (-125) ⭐️
D'Andre Swift over 16.5 receiving yards (-110)
0.5u Swift 25+ receiving (+188)
Roschon Johnson over 12.5 rushing yards (-110)
Caleb Williams over 4.5 rushing attempts (+106)
⭐️ Tucker Kraft over 34.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
Kraft 40+ receiving (+120)
0.5u Kraft 50+ receiving (+202)
Swift has had 16, 16, 18, and 17 attempts in his last four games. Now he gets an OC that wants to run the ball more. This is easy. And if it’s not, we have a slight hedge with Roschon Johnson’s over. As for Tucker Kraft, the one weak point of this stellar Bears passing defense has been TE targets
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
Didn’t watch any tape for this game. Didn’t do any research. Could be a lot of fun regardless of my inattentiveness, but we had bigger fish to fry this week.
The picks: Browns -1, ⭐️ Over 44 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): 0.5u Browns alt -3.5 (+142), 0.5u Browns alt -6.5 (+220), ⭐️ Cedric Tillman receptions over 4.5 (-112) ⭐️, Tillman 6+ receptions (+162), 0.5u Tillman 7+ receptions (+280), Cedric Tillman receiving yards over 56.5 (-110), 0.5u Tillman 70+ receiving (+154)
Alright, fine, I did a little bit of research, but mostly just on Cedric Tillman who has averaged 10 targets, 6.5 catches, and 87 receiving yards since Jameis took over. Loved the guy coming out of college and love this matchup for him
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots
Another game that got the short end of the stick this week - apologies to both teams and good luck.
The picks: Patriots +4, ⭐️ Over 43 ⭐️
Prop Bet(s): I lied again…
Alt over 46.5 (+134)
0.5u alt over 50.5 (+230)
⭐️ Drake Maye over 33.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐️
0.5u Maye 40+ rushing (+138)
⭐️ Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions (-116) ⭐️
Hunter Henry over 38.5 receiving yards (-112)
0.5u Henry 50+ receiving (+150)
Rhamondre Stevenson over 2.5 receptions (-106)
⭐️ Rhamondre Stevenson over 14.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
0.5u Stevenson 25+ receiving (+225)
Think this may be a sneaky shootout.
Not a believer in this Rams defense defending passes to RBs, but also think that Rams front will get a ton of pressure, forcing Maye to either scramble or find one his security blankets. This week - okay fine, look back and you’ll see I think it’s every week - it’s Hunter Henry’s turn
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Oooooooh boy, do these two teams not like each other!
There are two injuries that really matter in this game: Steelers OLB Alex Highsmith, who is out with an ankle injury, and Ravens S Kyle Hamilton, who absolutely, positively looked like he should be out last week, but is somehow likely to play despite his ankle injury. Guy is a freak.
The Highsmith injury really, really matters to this Steelers defense, as he’s their 2nd best defensive player after TJ Watt, providing an elite, secondary source of outside pressure. The good news is, the Steelers are getting another very good pass rusher back in OLB Nick Herbig, but the cupboard is fairly bare after that, relying on guys like OLB Jeremiah Moon to play. Perhaps that isn’t the worst player to get in the mix this week though, as Mr Moon got jerked around by the Ravens before joining the Steelers, with the Ravens bringing him onto the practice squad, promoting him to the active roster, and cutting him three separate times over the course of 6 months last season. Or perhaps it is the worst player to get in the mix this week, because Jermiah Moon fucking sucks 😅
These teams play incredibly close games, with their last 8 matchups decided by a total of 32 points (7, 7, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 4). As with all Mike Tomlin games, I have some stats to throw at you:
Tomlin is 12-2-2 ATS (86%) vs Jim Harbaugh as an underdog;
Since 2021, AFC North underdogs are 25-16 ATS (61%);
With Lamar at the helm and on extra rest, the Ravens are a perfect 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS, covering the spread by nearly 15 PPG (the Ravens are on extra rest after last week’s TNF game); and
The total of 48.5 is the 2nd highest in the history of this rivalry, only behind their Week 4 matchup in 2018 with a total of 51. That game ended 26-14, with the Ravens +3 winning and covering
My opinions go with the wind (and the line movements) on this game. Ravens -3 seems like a good bet, but Pittsburgh +3.5 seems like an easy click. Right now it’s Ravens -3. As for the total, everyone’s predicting a shootout. Seems like a good time to zag.
The picks: Ravens -3, Under 48.5
Prop Bet(s): a small amount…
0.5u Alt under 44.5 (+146)
0.5u Ravens -6.5 (+150)
⭐️ Ravens 1Q -1.5 (+126) ⭐️
⭐️ Mark Andrews over 33.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
Andrews 40+ receiving (+132)
0.5u Andrews 50+ receiving (+210)
0.5u Andrews 60+ receiving (+330)
⭐️ Mark Andrews over 3.5 receptions (+112) ⭐️
0.5u Andrews 5+ receptions (+215)
0.5u Andrews 6+ receptions (+400)
Although I do love me some Arthur Smith, I think the 1st half of this game may just involve running Najee Harris into the top 3 Ravens run defense two times before failing on 3rd on long. Prove me wrong, Arthur! As for Mr Andrews, well he just doesn’t like the Steelers, I guess (and he’s finally healthy, it seems)
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
The Raiders fired OC Luke Getsy. Who could’ve guessed that the guy that couldn’t produce anything but bottom 10 offenses in Chicago would produce another bottom 10 offense in Las Vegas?
Other than that, this game is giving me some nasty vibes. The Dolphins played a terrifically bad game on MNF vs the Rams, but the Rams played worse. The offense is healthy and the pass rush finally seems to be coming together the last three weeks, finally producing pressure at a rate in the top half of the league, but still - this game stinks!
Give me the Raiders on a gut feeling alone. That should turn out well, right?
The picks: Raiders +7.5, Over 43.5
Prop Bet(s): Jakobi Meyers over 56.5 receiving yards (-112)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
How the Lions won that game last week, I’ll never know. But that’s the kinda win that NFC Championship teams pull out their ass. Special stuff!
As for this game at home vs the Jags? Back in Week 8 I grabbed the Lions -11.5 and Under 44.5 while hosting the Titans, with the assumption that the Titans decent defense could hold Detroit back offensively just enough to, with the Titans offensive incompetence, keep the game under the total. Not making that mistake again!
Nothing says “smart betting strategy” like laying 13.5 points in the NFL!
The picks: ⭐️ Lions -13.5 ⭐️, Over 46.5
Prop(s): Lions alt -16.5 (+124), 0.5u Lions alt -19.5 (+188)
Why yes, we certainly are doubling down on laying double digit points! Three words: Mac Jones fucking sucks. Oh and Brian Thomas Jr appears to be injured and Lawrence ain’t coming back to save him - sell him in fantasy if you can
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans
Last week, I wrote about how Mac Jones - known to fucking suck - would suffer greatly at the hands of Vikings DC Brian Flores; and suffer he did.
This week, Brian Flores finds himself preparing for Will Levis. Now I won’t say that Will Levis fucking sucks because I do think he shows flashes of greatness in between overthrowing open receivers on the boundary and generating horrific turnovers, but he certainly does suck.
Vikings, sorry… Sam Darnold, I know you’re on the road this week, but can you perhaps not do your whole pumpkin routine and avoid throwing three redzone INTs again? Please and thank you!
The picks: Vikings -5.5, Under 39.5
Prop(s): Vikings alt -9.5 (+152), ⭐️ Vikings 1Q -1.5 (+114) ⭐️, Vikings 1H -3.5 (+102), ⭐️ Will Levis over 14.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐️, Levis 25+ rushing (+225), 0.25u Levis 40+ rushing (+820), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine over 23.5 receiving yards (-112)
I’m just as surprised as you are to see a Will Levis over be a ⭐️ Starred ⭐️ bet, but he does scramble quite a bit more than you may expect
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
I could’ve done a lot more research for this game - ooooh who does Rodgers target vs Cover 3?! - but the swirl around both of these teams is annoying. Ehh, that’s not fair. At least the Colts actually have something interesting going on with a crazy owner and a top 5 QB draft pick (making crazy statements) butting heads. The Jets media coverage is the equivalent of someone giving us daily updates on someone in hospice dying from Stage 4 pancreatic cancer. Kinda know where this all is heading, don’t we?
Everything is telling me that this is about to be an incredibly ugly, slug it out game. Everyone is too. But for some reason, I’m confidently picking the over here. Just think both teams are going to be able to run the ball at will.
While I have you, here’s a wild stat: of the 28 games that Shane Steichen has been the HC of the Colts, 18 of them have been one score games, with their 30-20 loss to the Bills last week being their only non-one score game of this season! Seems like we should take the points.
The picks: Colts +4, Over 43.5
Prop(s): ⭐️ Anthony Richardson over 39.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐️, 0.5u Richardson 50+ rushing (+158)
Richardson’s only path to success right now is running the damn ball. He’s fully healthy and knows it’s put up or shut up time
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
It seems like it’s been two seasons of weekly good news with a chaser of random, bad news for this Seahawks offensive line. This week is no different: RT Abraham Lucas is due to make his first start of the year (woohoo!) but C Connor Williams is out for personal reasons (wtf!!). I guess you could say the same for the rest of the roster though: WR DK Metcalf is set to return after hurting his MCL (woohoo!), but TEs Noah Fant and Brady Russell are both out (boooo!!). Fant seems replaceable with rookie Michigan man TE AJ Barner stepping in, but Russell? Good fucking luck replacing this!
(I did not do much prep for this game, apologies, but would like the Seahawks to win).
The picks: Seattle +6.5, ⭐️ Over 48 ⭐️
Prop(s): 0.1u exact score 49ers 27 - Seahawks 24 (+5000), 0.1u exact score 49ers 27 - Seahawks 23 (+16000)
We’re here to have fun. I didn’t ⭐️ it or anything…
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos
Speaking of having fun, there’s nothing more fun than thinking about Kirk Cousins going on the road to play outside at Mile High. This (and the Seahawks-49ers games) is the perfect game to switch over to during commercial breaks of the game we actually care about below…
The Falcons still have the lowest Pressure rate in the league (27%) and still have the fewest sacks (9). This game is as simple as every other Falcons game this year: is the QB they’re facing significantly better when kept clean vs being pressured? Bo Nix is a resounding yes:
Under pressure: 44% Completion % (#30), 29% Success rate (#30), -0.42 EPA / dropback (#22, good for you Bo!)
No pressure: 70% Completion % (#22), 45% Success rate (#33…), -0.42 EPA / dropback (#31… wait a minute)
Okay, so the splits show a drastic difference, but not a drastically different QB. Bo Nix still needs some time to marinate it seems, something you’re thrilled to say about your almost 25 year old rookie QB with 61 college and 10 NFL starts under his belt. The tape does show that Mr Nix (and the play calling) has improved over the course of the season, but it sure would be nice if the advanced stats weren’t so… awful?
That exercise has me hesitating a bit on giving Broncos -1.5 a ⭐️, but I’ve already copied and pasted it, so we’re sticking with it - wish me luck!
The picks: ⭐️ Broncos -1.5 ⭐️, Over 44.5
Prop(s): ⭐️ Bijan Robinson over 27.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️, 0.5u Robinson 40+ receiving (+200), ⭐️ Courtland Sutton over 54.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐️, 0.5u Sutton 70+ receiving (+158), 0.5u Sutton 80+ receiving (+225)
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
It’s the game we’ve all been waiting for. The somehow still undefeated, 9-0 Chiefs head to Buffalo to face the 8-2 Bills. Mahomes. Allen. Swift. MAGA Mahomes. Romo. Nantz. Someone named Wolfson. The undisputed highlight of Week 11 will hopefully live up to our sky-high expectations.
The winner of this game is essentially a coin flip, just as it has been each of the last four times they’ve played one another. In the regular season, the coin comes up Tails. In the playoffs, the coin comes up Heads. Yes, that was a Buffalo Dollar “joke” (reference?).
But this year’s game appears to come down to one question: can the Chiefs exploit the Bills’ one defensive weakness - giving up explosive plays on the ground - enough to keep the game close through the first 3.5 quarters before Mahomes comes in to close things out?
I say this because by basically any statistical measure and despite the 9-0 voodoo, this Bills team is better than the Chiefs. Let’s just look at EPA / play to keep things simple:
EPA / Rush: Bills: 1st (+0.17), Chiefs: 13th (+0.05)
EPA / Pass: Bills: 2nd (+0.27), Chiefs: 11th (+0.13)
EPA / Rush Allowed: Bills: 6th (-0.04), Chiefs: 3rd (-0.09)
EPA / Pass Allowed: Bills: 5th (-0.03), Chiefs: 15th (+0.08)
Looking at the situation in question though leaves me with serious doubts about the Chiefs ability to execute that game plan:
Bills Explosive Run Rate Allowed: 29th (15.0%)
Chiefs Explosive Run Rate: 32nd (5.9%)
Just in case you were wondering, this is not just a “Pacheco got injured” problem. In Weeks 1-2 vs the Ravens + Bengals, the Chiefs were still 28th (5.8%) in the league in generating explosive runs.
So I honestly think it comes down to that. Can the Chiefs, either through creative run designs using guys like Worthy and Hardman, or through quick swing passes to RBs as a bastardized extension of the run game, create enough explosive plays on the ground to exploit the one weakness of this excellent Bills defense. If not, it’s going to be a very busy day for Kelce (and maybe Juju + Hopkins in the slot) over the middle, as the outside will be essentially locked down by the potentially All-Pro duo of CBs Christian Benford + Taron Johnson.
And when the Bills are on offense, besides the usual concerns one must have when facing Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo (smells like a heavy dose of CB blitzes and wild simulated pressures to me), I expect Allen to finally unchain himself and let the beast run wild. Not sure he’ll be all that effective - last two regular season meetings he had 10 and 12 rushes, respectively, both for only 32 yards - but it will be at a higher volume than his current season average of 5.5 rushes / game.
All in all, this should be a tremendous chess match, full of lead changes, incredible plays, non-football obsessives asking “Who the fuck is Mack Hollins?”, and a whole lot of Romo doing his Romo impression.
As for who I’m picking? Oh, I don’t know Jiiiim!
The picks: Bills -2.5, ⭐️ Under 46.5 ⭐️
Prop(s): here we go…
⭐️ Kareem Hunt over 2.5 receptions (+112) ⭐️
Hunt 4+ receptions (+225)
0.5u Hunt 5+ receptions (+435)
⭐️ Kareem Hunt over 13.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐️
Hunt 25+ receiving (+250)
⭐️ Patrick Mahomes over 22.5 rushing yards (-108) ⭐️
Mahomes 25+ rushing (+112)
⭐️⭐️ Josh Allen over 7.5 rushing attempts (-125) ⭐️⭐️
⭐️⭐️ James Cook over 15.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐️⭐️
Double star, 2u bets on both of these
James Cook 25+ receiving (+170)
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers
As if the day couldn’t get any better, we have my LA Chargers hosting the Bengals in a must-win situation (for the Bengals, we’re chilling).
We’re about to find out how real this Chargers defense actually is, as there’s been a lot of cupcake and lollipop matchups the past couple weeks. The defense did their job and the stats show it (#1 in PPG allowed at 13.1), but the Bengals are little bit different of an animal, particularly with Tee Higgins likely to return from whatever nonsense injury he was dealing with this time around.
Don’t have much more for you than that - just excited for this digestif!
(I have no idea how this game plays out)
The picks: Bengals +1.5, Over 47.5
Prop(s): ⭐️ Will Dissly over 34.5 receiving yards (-112) ⭐️, Dissly 40+ receiving (+114), ⭐️ Tee Higgins over 53.5 receiving (-114) ⭐️, Higgins 60+ receiving (+112), 0.5u Higgins 70+ receiving (+166)
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys
The Texans are going to absolutely obliterate the Cowboys on MNF.
That is all.
The picks: ⭐️ Texans -7 ⭐️, Under 41.5
Prop(s): ⭐️⭐️ 6pt Teaser: Chiefs +8.5, Texans -1 ⭐️⭐️, ⭐️ Cowboys team total under 17.5 (-135) ⭐️, Cowboys alt team total under 14.5 (+142), ⭐️ Joe Mixon longest rush over 15.5 (-108) ⭐️, ⭐️ Joe Mixon rush attempts over 20.5 (-112) ⭐️
Yes, a third 2u ⭐️⭐️ bet for this week! Battle of the lone star state?! Count em