2025 NFL Draft Breakdown
A mock draft, Big Board, and my top offensive players in the 2025 NFL Draft
My second foray into an NFL Draft breakdown, below you’ll find some general thoughts on the class, my mock draft (done April 24 ~11am), top 32 Big Board, and a breakdown of my top 5 - 10 guys for each offensive position with their peak and a comp. Defensive player evals still elude me (although I’m getting better), but you’ll see where I rank guys on the Big Board. All stats courtesy of PFF, Reception Perception, NGS, and SIS.
But first, let’s get some general thoughts out of the way:
Similar to the 2024 NBA Draft class, this NFL class lacks the All Pro upside of previous years, but is filled with roughly 40-50 prospects that should be good NFL starters. Thinking about this class through the lens of an average year, there are ~2.5 guys that would be in the discussion for a top 5 selection, with the 0.5 flip-flopping based on when you talk to me about QB Cam Ward;
On the note of the depth in this class, there are so, so many solid RBs this year, enough to make me question why any team would think grabbing Ashton Jeanty or Omarion Hampton in the top half of the 1st round is a good use of draft capital. In the same way that Saquon + Henry’s contracts on good teams inflated the perceived value of RBs the last year, I think this RB class has a chance to drive that value right back down. For fantasy managers (particularly those in dynasty leagues), let’s just remember to tread lightly come August / September when we’re considering drafting a RB outside the 1st round. There’s going to be a ton of turnover at the position this upcoming season, so the RB “dead zone” may be quite a bit wider than usual;
Even more acute than previous years, there’s a serious dearth of surefire tackle prospects in this class, but, to continue the depth talk, there are again, so, so many solid interior offensive line prospects. Although many of these guys will start their careers playing OT, it seems more likely than not that a large majority will find themselves playing and sticking at guard. Luckily, as we saw this offseason, the salary delta between tackles and guards is starting to close, so this won’t be the end of the world for teams “wasting” a 1st round pick on what ends up being an interior player; and
Thinking about Round 1 of the draft and the fairly flat evals of players 10 - 40 in this class, I don’t think we’ll be seeing a ton of draft pick trades on night 1. May be wrong here, but if teams are using the traditional Jimmy Johnson draft pick value chart, I have a hard time seeing why any team would give up a future 3rd round pick just to move up 6 spots in the 20s. And if they do end up making that trade, well, we know that team really fucking loves that player!
Round 1 Mock Draft
Couple notes on where I deviate from the consensus mocks as of right now (11am on draft day):
Jags at #5 - the Jags were tied to Mason Graham since this process began, basically entirely on the back of an unsubstantiated groupthink claim that they needed help on the interior of their DL. Right now, most insiders are saying they’re either taking Tetairoa McMillan or Ashton Jeanty, but based on the months-long smoke-screening from the Jags org thus far, they seem like a team that could shock us and pick someone random like TE Tyler Warren or even an OL;
Raiders at #6 - should the Jags not take RB Jeanty at #5, most people have the Raiders selecting him at #6. I just have a hard time believing that the braintrust of GM John Spytek, HC Pete Carroll, and (QB) Tom Brady are going to look at this poor pass-protecting OL group and what Geno did behind the bad Seahawks OL the last two years, and come to any conclusion but “we need to draft a tackle”. They can grab a RB at #37;
Saints at #9 - perhaps I have too high of an opinion of new Saints HC Kellen Moore, but with how many holes this roster has and how bad the non-Ward QBs are, I think they grab the more immediate need on the OL, take their lumps with 2nd year QB Spencer Rattler this year, and plan to grab a QB next year;
Steelers trade down to #25 and Browns trade up to #29 - as will become clear in the QB breakdown, I hate both of these moves, but it seems like both teams want to draft a QB. I don’t see Tomlin as wanting anything to do with the Sanders hype-trainwreck so there goes Dart, but do think Browns owner Jimmy Haslam is dumb enough to buy into reuniting the Travis Hunter-Shedeur Sanders duo
Top 32 Big Board
I’ll dig into the offensive position groups below, but he’s the list of my top 32 guys in this year’s draft, with a smattering of thoughts for specific defensive players:
WR1 Travis Hunter - Colorado
DE1 Abdul Carter - Penn State
He’s so good that comparing him to Broncos-era Von Miller is reasonable. He has an insane bend, speed, and strength, and routinely blew up both pass and run plays with his get off at the line
DT1 Mason Graham - Michigan
Dominant against the run and dominant rushing the passer, I’m betting that his strength, quick-twitch, and motor can make up for any potential issues with his little T-Rex arms. An inverted, poor man’s Aaron Donald is not out of the question (so a completely different player, yes…?)
OT1 Will Campbell - LSU
S1 Malaki Starks - Georgia
I’m hoping that the top-end weakness of this class avoids it, but Starks is 100% the type of player that will fall to the Ravens or Chiefs in the late 1st round due to “positional value”, making all of us question our life choices and think something like, “How the fuck did the Ravens get this Kyle Hamilton guy at pick #14?!”. Some teams just have the luck
RB1 Ashton Jeanty - Boise State
CB1 Jahdae Barron - Texas
DE2 Jalon Walker - Georgia
OG1 Grey Zabel - NDSU
DE3 Mike Green - Marshall
He’s really freaking good, who cares that he went to Marshall
OT2 Josh Simmons - Ohio State
DT2 Derrick Harmon - Oregon
DE4 Donovan Ezeiruaku - Boston College
DT3 Walter Nolan - Ole Miss
LB1 Jihaad Campbell - Alabama
QB1 Cam Ward - Miami
OT3 Kelvin Banks Jr. - Texas
OT4 Armand Membou - Missouri
TE1 Colston Loveland - Michigan
OG2 Tyler Booker - Alabama
WR2 Emeka Egbuka - Ohio State
DT4 Kenneth Grant - Michigan
WR3 Tetairoa McMillan - Arizona
CB2 Will Johnson - Michigan
I don’t know what to do with Johnson, a man who had one of the best CB seasons of the last decade on the dominant, 2023 Michigan national title-winning defense, only to get beat up (physically and) in man coverage this past year as he dealt with some combo of injuries and his supporting cast being worse than the year prior. His floor is your team’s 2nd corner that you wish was a little bit better though, so he can’t fall that far
WR4 Matthew Golden - Texas
DE5 Shemar Stewart - Texas A&M
CB3 Trey Amos - Ole Miss
OT5 Donovan Jackson - Ohio State
WR5 Jaylin Noel - Iowa State
OT6 Josh Conerly Jr. - Oregon
DT5 Darius Alexander - Toledo
CB4 Azareye'h Thomas - Florida State
So I know his straight-line speed isn’t the fastest and his feet aren’t the quickest, but after watching him defend both LSU receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr for last year’s draft eval, I’m confident he’s a starting cornerback in the NFL
DE6 Sau’vion Jones - LSU
Needed to get one more in here because I like him so much. A versatile threat that can line up both inside and out on the DL, I’d love for the Lions to grab this guy to pair with Michigan man Hutchinson
You’ll notice a couple players are notably absent in the above (Tyler Warren, Jaxson Dart, Shedeur Sanders, Omarion Hampton). We’ll get to them below.
Quarterbacks
1. Cam Ward (Miami)
Top 20 QB, Jordan Love
I think Miami’s incredible comeback win on the road at Cal serves as a great lens through which to view Cam Ward as a prospect. Capturing his upside, is this incredible, clutch throw down the middle of the field to the seam, hitting his WR in stride before the safety can blow up the play.
That’ll translate. Ward has no issues throwing over the middle of the field… well, except when he does. Here’s a throw from earlier in the game that Cam decided to make, and although it’s a particularly brutal example of poor decision making that would cost an NFL QB their starting job, it wasn’t as uncommon as you’d like from your top QB prospect.
Some people have thrown out the Mahomes comp for how the two QBs played in college - it makes sense, as both guys needed to outscore their porous defenses - but I like the Jordan Love comp for Ward. The highs will be unbelievably high and will (likely) make the Titans think that they’ve found their franchise guy, but at least one time per game, Ward will do something that makes you scratch your head and wonder how much to actually invest in this mostly fun rollercoaster. If he can eliminate those head scratchers though, we could be looking at a consistently top 10, semi-scrambling QB that can make every throw and consistently wows you with his playmaking and creativity
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2. Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)
High end backup, Teddy Bridgewater with no pocket presence, humility, or grace
I really dislike this QB class, and I really dislike Shedeur Sanders. I just don’t think he’s very good, but let’s talk about the good stuff first (if we have to…).
When Sanders is kept clean, he can make any throw within 40 yards of the line of scrimmage. He throws with accuracy, touch, and has no problem layering the ball between defenders. He’s familiar with the NFL lifestyle due to his father and, like his father, plays with a fearlessness that allows him to get throws off and brush off any mistakes to get to the next play. These are the reasons he was a +100 favorite to be the #1 overall pick this time last year.
But the bad stuff is kinda overwhelming. The first thing that stands out watching him is how fucking good Travis Hunter was last year. The second thing that stands out is a terrible 1-2 punch: Sanders consistently backpedals in the pocket - clean or otherwise - and is only an above average athlete. This shows up in the stats, where Sanders had a 7.7% Sack rate and a 19.7% Pressure to Sack rate last season. These were improvements over his 2023 campaign (10.2%, 25.1%), but the core issue still remained - the guy just doesn’t have any feel in the pocket and is constantly at risk of running himself into a sack. Nobody was better at turning at 5 yard sack into a 15 yard sack.
On top of all that, is the potential circus that comes with drafting Shedeur and his father, Dion. It’s a risk that should not be underestimated by NFL scouts and front offices, as Dion will 100000% be out there calling for your job when his son inevitably struggles.
With that in mind, I will leave you with this quote from NFL.com:
3. Quinn Ewers (Texas)
Serviceable backup, late career Andy Dalton blended with any of the bad, white Pittsburgh QBs from the last 5 years
The only reason Ewers is #3 is because, well, look at the competition guys. But more than that, I hated Ewers after reviewing his tape for last year’s Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell draft. He threw a pretty-looking ball, but completely kneecapped his WRs ability to generate yards after the catch by being slightly off-target on every throw. Ewers still struggled with that (and general decision-making) this past season, but he did show drastic improvement. A 5 star prospect coming in, it seems like that’s the type of guy worth throwing a Day 2 dart throw at (no relation to the gentleman a #5 below)
4. Will Howard (Ohio State)
Serviceable backup, a different one of the white Pittsburgh QBs from the last 5 years
His footwork? Inconsistent. His ability to drive the ball with velocity down the field? Inconsistent. A non-Stroud Ohio State QB? Usually a stay away. But Howard did show something this past season (at least after the Michigan dismantling), demonstrating real smarts at reading defenses at the line and making throws in the intermediate areas of the field. And he’s better than Jaxson Dart so…
5. Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss)
Barely serviceable backup, Jalen Hurts’ staring down his first read without any of the athleticism that makes it worthwhile
Lane Kiffin is a very good college football head coach. He gets the most out of his offensive players by making their lives easy, drawing up easy to process plays that put the ball in his best playmakers hands. Unfortunately, it does not appear that any of that college production actually translates to developed, serviceable NFL players.
Here’s a list of every QB + WR Kiffin has coached and gotten drafted in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft in his time at both USC and Ole Miss:
2011 4th round pick TE Jordan Cameron
2012 4th round pick TE Rhett Ellison
2013 4th round pick QB Matt Barkley
2013 2nd round pick WR Robert Woods
2014 2nd round pick WR Marqise Lee
2021 2nd round pick WR Elijah Moore
2022 3rd round pick QB Matt Corral
2023 2nd round pick WR Jonathan Mingo
Ya notice anything about those names? Robert Woods? Pretty good hit! Everyone else? Bad and out of the league. Maybe Jaxson Dart will buck the trend, but I’m not counting on it.
Mr Dart isn’t elite at anything. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, he’s only okay as a scrambler, and most importantly, he’s not the fastest processor. This is the most damning stat about him as a prospect and feeds right into the Kiffin point above: When Dart threw to his first read, he had a 92.9 PFF passing grade, 2nd highest in the nation. When he had to throw anywhere else on the field, his PFF passing grade dropped to 60.3, 63rd in the nation.
With stats and a program history like that, maybe the guy is a Day 2 pick. Maybe. Steelers, Browns, Giants fans: pray your team doesn’t think Dart is their guy.
Running Backs
Now that we got all that negativity out of the way, let’s quickly run through some of the RBs. Like I said above, there are way too many quality RBs in this draft class, so I’m going to keep this section brief, as the difference between my RB5 and RB15 is pretty marginal this year.
1. Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)
Top 5 RB, Steven Jackson with a bit more wiggle (really, really good)
I’m not gonna tell you anything you don’t already know about the guy. He’s incredible. Is he worth a top 10 pick with this many solid RBs behind him? When “Steven Jackson with a bit more wiggle” is how I’m comping him? Ya, probably. Can’t wait to see him in the pros
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2. TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)
Top 12 RB, sturdier Jaylen Warren
I strongly dislike how much I love watching this guy play. He has elite elusiveness, top end speed, and potentially the most intriguing part, is really patient in the backfield. Sometimes that patience turned into indecisiveness, but he has all the mental and physical tools to dominate in both the run and pass game. I will be reaching for him this year in my fantasy drafts. Yuck!
3. Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)
Top 20 RB, low end: Bears David Montgomery + high end: Lions David Montgomery
Somewhat an inversion of Henderson above, Hampton struggles a bit with waiting for his blocks, getting impatient in the backfield and running into the line more often than you’d like to see. Fortunately for him though, he’s so strong and elusive that oftentimes, it doesn’t matter. I’d expect a bit more of an NFL learning curve for Hampton vs the two guys above, but the sky truly is the limit for the guy if he can learn some patience and how to catch the ball consistently out of the backfield
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4. Kaleb Johnson (Iowa)
Top 30 RB, a poor man’s DeMarco Murray
He’s not the fastest or biggest RB in this class, but Kaleb Johnson is really good at putting his head down, hitting a hole, and breaking tackles, finishing the season with a fantastic 4.42 yards after contact. He still needs to polish some of his 3rd down work on route running and pass protection, but there’s no doubt that Kaleb will be in the league for a long time
5. Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State)
Top 30 RB, Good Sony Michel
You don’t really expect me to write another glowing review of another Ohio RB do you? Come on
6. Dylan Sampson (Tennessee)
Top 40 RB, Bucky Irving except not that good
I really like Sampson. He’s severely undersized, coming in at only 5'8, 200 lbs and only has one season as a starter (stuck behind my guy Jaylen Wright last season). But he was excellent once he got the start, scoring 22 rushing TDs in the Vols spread offense this past season. Despite his size, he’s somehow elite in short yardage situations, converting 33 / 36 attempts, so should he find himself in the right situation and scheme, he could definitely find success in a shared backfield
7. Cam Skattebo (Arizona State)
Top 40 RB, if Kyle Juszczyk was allowed to play all three downs in the backfield
I feel like no matter where I slot Skattebo, I’m either going to be disrespecting him (and his toughness and all around well-rounded game) or my process (he’s old, white, and competed in the Big 12)
8. Devin Neal (Kansas)
Top 40 RB, Tyjae Spears(?) idk man, comps are hard
He’s an elite athlete outside of running fast, so that’s cool. Were at the point of the RBs where they all start to blend together, so let’s just end on a positive note: when Devin Neal put up 287 yards from scrimmage at home to upset the Colorado Buffalo this past season
Wide Receivers
1. Travis Hunter (Colorado)
Top 3 WR, rookie year Odell Beckham Jr. + Garrett Wilson
This? This does not happen very often on Reception Perception
Yes, he did it against sub-par Big12 competition, but Jesus Christ - look at all that green. I think Hunter would be foolish to go all in on playing corner in the NFL just based on the 2nd contract sizes, but if there’s anybody that could be foolish and talented enough to succeed at both CB + WR in the same body, same game, it’s this guy.
I reject my Jeanty > Hunter Heisman position and bow down to you, Mr Hunter. The guy is an absolute stud and once he learns how to properly run some routes, he could challenge for the “Best WR” title
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2. Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)
Top 30 WR, Rams-era Robert Woods
There are higher upside guys than Egbuka, but if you’re looking for a sure thing at WR in this year’s draft, he’s your guy.
He’ll play as long as he wants to in the NFL, an ultimate dirty-work player that can line up all over the field, provide excellent run blocking, and catch as many balls as you’re willing to throw his way, particularly against zone.
Maybe he tops out as a high level WR2, but that’s also his floor. A no brainer pick in the 20s this year
3. Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)
Top 10 WR, 40% Mike Evans + 40% Drake London + 20% the guy you went to HS with that was elite at multiple sports but just didn’t really care enough to focus on one of them, thus failing at all of them
One of the pure X receivers in this year’s draft class, McMillan has everything you’d like to see in a guy that will chunk your offense down the field. He’s tall (6’4), has good size (220 lbs), and has that two-sport athlete thing (volleyball) that shows up every single time he’s battling for a jump ball vs a corner.
People love the Drake London comp (so I threw them a bone with 40%), but London was a far better separator at USC compared to McMillan. London also showed he could block his ass off when he wanted to, something noticeably lacking in McMillan’s tape. Which gets to the big red flag: does Tetairoa McMillan actually like playing football professionally, or did he just like playing football with his best friend, QB Noah Fifita? I’m not sure after that “I don’t watch tape and I’m proud” storyline.
The intangibles are too good to have him any lower than WR3 in this class, but compared to some of the other guys below, would I be surprised if McMillan is just your average NFL X receiver? Not at all
4. Matthew Golden (Texas)
Top 30 WR, Jordan Addison + Jayden Reed, an NFC North special
I wanted to be down on Matthew Golden, I really did. He played in a bit of a BS offense at Texas, isn’t great as a blocker, and easily got disrupted when playing against a strong press corner. But in researching who this guy is as a person, his improvement year over year and clearly defined ambition really stood out. This guy has a plan for himself, and thus far, he’s been checking off those goals one by one on his way to becoming a valuable WR in the NFL.
I didn’t see the 4.2 speed on tape, but he ran it (supposedly), so he ran it, I guess? The more impressive thing about Golden is (1) how good he is against zone, finding gaps and putting himself in a position to help his limited QB Ewers, and (2) when Golden needed to make a clutch, contested catch, he was able to make the play, at least this past season. I think he likely tops out as the very good 2nd receiver behind a truly elite guy (thus my Addison comp above behind a Justin Jefferson), but the WR1 upside is there
5. Jaylin Noel (Iowa State)
Top 40 WR, 2022 Christian Kirk
Noel is one of those rare guys that confuses you every other play: is he a small, speedy receiver or a tough, contested catch guy? Is he doomed to stay in the slot or could he realistic run boundary routes and make plays against bigger, longer NFL talent?
I think the Underdog guys did a great breakdown of this dissonance in the video below, so I’ll outsource the commentary and tape to them, but I very easily could see Noel as a fantasy mainstay for years to come, racking up big catch totals and consistently having fantasy managers reach for him, claiming “this is the year he finishes as a WR1”.
Note: Like last year, I love writing these breakdowns, but I ain’t doing paragraphs for each of these other WRs when we’re already pushing 4,000 words. Enjoy the comps and the free ammo to blast me with when these guys fail or thrive
6. Kyle Williams (Washington State)
Top 40 WR, Khalil Shakir with, if we’re lucky, a splash of Puka Nacua
7. Luther Burden III (Missouri)
Top 40 WR, are you Rashee Rice waiting for the right offense or are you Calvin Austin? Please tell me, someone tell me
I DON’T KNOW WHAT TO DO WITH YOU LUTHER BURDEN III WHY ARE YOU SO CONFUSING
8. Jack Bech (TCU)
Top 40 WR, *white WR comp incoming* 2021 Hunter Renfrow - 2022 Hunter Renfrow
9. Tory Horton (Colorado State)
Top 50 WR, one of the “Slant Kings” of the last decade
10. Tre Harris (Ole Miss)
Top 50 WR, read what I wrote about Lane Kiffin’s college offense above and then appreciate Tre Harris for all of the cardio routes he’s going to be running in the NFL
Tight Ends
I know what good blocking looks like and what good route running looks like, but I still struggle to know what they like look combined in a body of a TE. So here’s another lazy section with just their highest positional ranking (F = off the line, catching passes, Y = in line, lots of blocking) and comp
1. Colston Loveland (Michigan)
Top 3 (F) TE, Eagles-era Zach Ertz
If Loveland hadn’t struggled with injuries, this would be the easy #1 TE pick in this class. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen this past year, so now we have to hear about how that bum from Penn State is better than him. Terrible!
2. Harold Fannin Jr (Bowling Green)
Top 10 (F) TE, some compromise between Game 1 vs the Chiefs Isaiah Likely and the rest of the season Isaiah Likely
If you want a guy that dominated touches on his college offense while actually running big boy routes and consistently winning at the catch point, this is your guy, not…
3. Tyler Warren (Penn State)
Top 20 (F) TE, the very frustrating and underwhelming version of Dalton Kincaid
I do not understand why everyone has fallen in love with this guy. He’s not talented as a blocker, is incredibly stiff running his routes, and although he’s tough and loves running through tackles with his 6’6, 260 lbs frame, had to sit and wait behind guys like Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson before he even got a chance to have every target in this ineffective Penn State offense thrown his way. Yes, he’s big, strong, and the highlights are incredible (watch the below, record-setting insanity), but all I see is a fantasy TE you pickup at 12:55pm on a Sunday, praying for a TD
Even with Brock Bowers doing what he did last season, the general rule still applies: DON’T DRAFT TIGHT ENDS IN THE TOP 10
4. Terrance Ferguson (Oregon)
Top 30 (F) TE, if he can learn how to leverage his frame to properly block, Luke Schoonmaker
5. Mitchell Evans (Notre Dame)
Top 30 TE, would it be okay to say Luke Schoonmaker again? It’s a TE guys, give me a break
Offensive Line
We’ve reached the end of the line here, but I still, unfortunately, don’t have the skills to make player comps for a bunch of offensive linemen. Here are my top 10 guys despite that:
1. OT Will Campbell (LSU)
I get it: he’s got short arms and would be an exception to an exception if he actually turns into a dominant LT. I continue to have him #1 though because nobody impressed me more with how balanced and nimble they played at the position, succeeding with two totally different QBs the last two seasons (Jayden Daniels + Garrett Nussmeier). Worst comes to worst, he’s a top 10 guard in the NFL. That’s not a bad outcome for a top 10 pick
2. OG Grey Zabel (NDSU)
Zabel played all five positions along the OL (since HS), and in each, despite not having the length or even weight you’d like to ideally see, he played with toughness, smart leverage, and a nimbleness that will allow him to succeed in almost any NFL offense. 2nd highest floor behind Campbell in this class
3. OT Josh Simmons (Ohio State)
A torn patellar tendon pushed his draft stock down, but the man likely should still be a top 10 pick. He allowed just one pressure on 158 dropbacks at LT this past season. Super high ceiling
4. OT Kelvin Banks Jr. (Texas)
5. OT Armand Membou (Missouri)
I keep flipping Banks and Membou back and forth here, but the time has come to solidify their ranks. I don’t feel good about it. Still might change it
6. OG Tyler Booker (Alabama)
Little heavy-footed, but everyone in Tuscaloosa raves about the guy and his leadership
7. OT Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)
8. OT Josh Conerly (Oregon)
9. OG Tate Ratledge (Georgia)
10. OT Ozzy Trapilo (Boston College)
I think that is the third Boston College guy I’ve placed in this writeup. Bill O'Brien: I respect you