2025-2026 NFL Preview Part II: Team by Team Breakdowns
Breakdowns of all 32 teams with offensive + defensive PPG projections
Introduction
A quick note before we begin…
This is my fourth attempt at an NFL Preview piece and the v4.0 of my NFL model that somehow, someway has clocked in at 87%, 86%, and 84% accuracy the last three years, respectively, at predicting offensive and defensive PPG. We’re moving in the right direction, folks! Can we make it a third consecutive year of model improvement? Doubt it, but there is a ceiling and floor for offenses and defenses in the league, so who knows.
Big tweaks this year were to the v1 of the game by game prediction model to try to remove some of the “art” from actually picking all 272 games, but as always, I still ended up picking every game using a combination of the model’s outputs, a team’s schedule, and some good old fashioned picking the results that matched the narratives I already believed in. Some things never change.
So what’s in this here monster of a post?
Every team has a writeup and bold prediction / best bet on top of their projected record and offensive + defensive PPG. All stats come from Fanduel, FantasyPros, PFF+, FTN, SIS, Warren Sharp’s preview, Reception Perception, or some good old fashioned random tweet I bookmarked four months ago, so don’t expect any kind of references outside of random hyperlinking. Also this thing is over 15,000 words, so uh… it may take a while to get through. Some nice reading for you in the 2nd half of tonight’s Cowboys-Eagles blowout.
And that’s it! If you have thoughts, please let me know or leave a comment. I’m always hungry for feedback, positive or negative!
AFC Record Projections
NFC Record Projections
Offensive and Defensive PPG Projections
Playoffs + Awards
Wild Card Round
AFC
(2) Bills over (7) Steelers
(6) Bengals over (3) Chiefs
(5) Broncos over (4) Texans
NFC
(2) Packers over (7) Buccaneers
(6) 49ers over (3) Falcons
(5) Lions over (4) Seahawks
Divisional Round
AFC
(1) Ravens over (6) Bengals
(2) Bills over (5) Broncos
NFC
(1) Eagles over (6) 49ers
(5) Lions over (2) Packers
Conference Championship Round
AFC
(1) Ravens over (2) Bills
NFC
(1) Eagles over (5) Lions
Super Bowl
(1) Ravens over (1) Eagles
Awards
Regular Season MVP
Lamar Jackson (+490), Backup: Brock Purdy (+2200)
Offensive Player of the Year
Bijan Robinson (+1500), Backup: Josh Jacobs (+4000)
Defensive Player of the Year
Will Anderson Jr (+1100), Backup: Nik Bonitto (+3000)
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Cam Ward (+300), Backup: Tyler Warren (+2700)
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Abdul Carter (+185), Backup: James Pearce Jr. (+1700)
Comeback Player of the Year
Aidan Hutchinson (+270), Backup: Christian Kirk (+15000)
Coach of the Year
Mike Macdonald (+1400), Backup: Raheem Morris (+3000)
Protector of the Year
Penei Sewell (+470), Backup: Big Dom (+10000)
Assistant Coach of the Year
Vance Joseph (+700), Backup: Klint Kubiak (+1700)
The Best and Worst of Last Year’s Breakdown
Up next are the team previews for all 32 NFL teams this year, but first, let’s take a look at some highs and lows from last year’s breakdown.
The Best Calls
Went 20-12 on Over/Under Win Totals
- We’ll take 62.5%!
Being higher than consensus on the Lions, Packers, Seahawks, and Broncos
- Projected Lions to be 13-5, best record in the league (+2500 preseason…) and they finished 15-2, Packers to go 11-6, and Seahawks to get to 10 wins
Being lower than consensus on the Raiders, Patriots, and Bears
- “I really don’t believe in Antonio Pierce and think he’s basically a lock to be fired at the end of the season after Gardner Minshew, after benefiting last season from a legitimately good coach that could scheme him to success, absolutely shits the bed” aged well
Derrick Henry +600 to lead league in rushing TDs
- Also said he wasn’t going to be a top 10 PPR RB in fantasy, so it all balances out
“The Raiders finish the year with a top three 12 personnel usage rate, playing through their two TEs (rookie Brock Bowers + 2nd year TE Michael Mayer) that were excellent weapons in the pass game back in college”
- The Raiders led the league in 12 personnel usage at 35.5% of snaps, 1.5% points higher than the #2 team Chiefs (34.0%)
“The [Eagles don’t'] fall apart, the OC + DC hires reinvigorate the team, Sirianni keeps his job, Jalen Hurts takes a step up as a passer, and both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith finish as top 25 fantasy WRs”
- They actually won the Super Bowl too!
“Terry McLaurin has a monster season as the only show in town, leading the team across all receiving categories and finishing as WR14 on the season”
- Finished WR8 on the season!
The Worst Calls
Being higher than consensus on the Bengals, Jets, and Saints
- I thought Lou Anarumo would be able to get their defense “back to pre-2023 form”, but he instead got fired. The Jets was a common mistake though, and although the Saints got hit with the worst injury bomb in the NFL outside of Detroit, goddamn did I feel good about my projected 8 wins after Week 2’s thrashing of the Cowboys!
Being lower than consensus on the Ravens, Bills, Bucs, and Commanders
- I thought the Ravens coaching exodus would affect them all year (only affected them the first half), the Bills defense would take a serious step back (did not), didn’t trust Baker (still don’t), and didn’t like the Commanders relying so much on a bunch of decent 1 year contracts to cobble together a defense (we’re doing that one again, don’t worry)
“I didn’t trust the Ravens’ vibe last year and that didn’t turn out well for me. Will I learn, change my ways, stop going on completely arational gut feelings with this team? Absolutely fucking not! I have the same vibes this year baby, so we’re doubling down!”
- Will I go for three years in a row?
“Under 7.5 wins +106 is an easy click [for the Bucs]…”
- Eeeeeesh but let us continue, “…but also, Rachaad White loses the starting rushing role to rookie Bucky Irving by Week 10.” Nice and balanced take there!
“The Jets finish with the #1 defense in the NFL, buoyed by a finally competent offense that, although unable to score in droves, avoids 3-and-outs”
- Like I said, I wasn’t the only one to be fooled by the Jets
“Over Mahomes everywhere: Mahomes over 4225.5 passing yards (-112); Mahomes over 32.5 passing TDs (-112); Mahomes to throw 40+ TDs (+450)”
- Going back to the well here, for sureeee
“Chris Olave has his best season as a pro, finally staying healthy enough to reclaim the promise of his rookie campaign, finishing the season with career highs in receptions, yards, and TDs”
- Ya know… that’s my bad, Chris
Bold Predictions:
For all actionable “bold” betting predictions (betting 1 unit on each), we went 2-11 for an ROI of -3.7 units, but did hit on Derrick Henry to lead the league in rushing TDs (+600) and would’ve hit on Aiden Hutchinson to win DPoY (+1400) by a wide margin if he hadn’t shattered his leg on that flukey Week 6 leg kick vs Dallas. Still pissed about that one.
Alright, enough reflecting. Onto the previews!
Arizona Cardinals (9-8)
Projected Finishes: #19 Offense, #10 Defense
Win Total: 8.5 wins, Division: +390, Super Bowl: +4000
What a strange year the 2024-25 Arizona Cardinals had in their second year under the coaching trio of HC Jonathan Gannon, OC Drew Petzing, and DC Nick Rallis.
The offense took a notable step forward, jumping from 21st to 10th in EPA / drive after adding rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr, rookie OG Isaiah Adams, and free agent LT Jonah Williams. After having concerns about OC Drew Petzing’s play calling with Kyler from Week 10 on in 2023, he and the Cardinals offensive coaching staff made one big change that radically improved this offense’s ability to drive down the field: they started throwing the ball on early downs.
In 2023, this team refused to throw the ball on early downs in the 1st half, only doing so 48% of the time (32nd in the league). In 2024, Petzing changed things up, throwing the ball way more often on early downs (58%, 8th) and doing so to great success, going from 23rd to 3rd in Success Rate on early downs. With a less predictable early down offense and great OL improvement through the work of former OL coach, now Dallas OC Klayton Adams, the Cardinals rolled out the 5th most effective / efficient run game in the league last season: 5th in EPA / rush, 5th in Rushing Success Rate, 4th in YpC. The run game was top 10 in these metrics the prior year, but going from 9th to 5th in EPA / rush really allowed this offense to march down the field and avoid 3rd and longs (5th best 3-and-out %).
Despite the offense generally taking a big leap forward, it wasn’t all puppies and rainbows for OC Drew Petzing, as I, and a lot of the football community, really didn’t love the way he used rookie and #4 overall pick, WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Let’s take a look at his Reception Perception splits
Overall, MHJ was stuck outside on the line of scrimmage on nearly 80% of snaps last season. He was allergic to the slot and barely moved at all prior to the snap. All of this explains why his ADoT of 13.5 yards was 19th highest in the league, surrounded by “Sacrificial Xs” like Jalen Brooks (13.6 yards) and Nelson Agholor (13.3 yards). It also helps explain his lack of utter lack of YAC last season, only producing 148 yards after the catch, good for 72nd most in the league, despite having the 37th most receptions.
Looking to the defensive side of the ball, the Cardinals 26th best defense in 2024 (0.05 EPA / play) was better than the 32nd best defense in 2023 (0.08), but this was definitely the unit that held this team back on a week to week basis. The team actually did a much better job not giving up TDs, going from a 29% Touchdown rate in 2023 (32nd) to a 23% rate in 2024 (17th). That’s worth celebrating, but as this team learned, you can still lose giving up FGs instead of TDs, as their three FG, 23-22 loss in Week 13 vs the Vikings shows.
Big picture, this team just didn’t have the personnel necessary to product a solid defense last season. Thus they relied on a gambling style of defense, one where they took their three safety looks, the 4th highest Coverage Disguise Rate, and the 14th highest Blitz Rate, and turned it into the… 30th highest Pressure Rate (29%) in the league(?). When you don’t have the guys to compete, ya gotta be weird and hope for the best. Without an excess of picks that you nail 100% of or a gigantic spending spree, you don’t magically transform from the 32nd best defense into a good defense.
So how does this team get to a winning record in 2025?
Well, the defense needs to take another mini-leap, and with two first round talent rookies in DT Walter Nolan and CB Will Johnson - drafted in the 2nd after injury concerns tanked his top 20 pick status - joining the team, alongside a new Super Bowl-winning DE in Josh Sweat and a brand new interior DL with DT Dalvin Tomlinson and DT Calais “I can’t believe he’s still in the league and good at his job” Campbell both joining via free agency.
And on offense, there’s still some room to grow, specifically in the usage of MHJ, Trey McBride in the endzone, and… actually, scratch that point.
The real reason I couldn’t get fully behind this Cardinals team is because, despite what I expect to be continued improvement from this young offensive line - looking at you, LT Paris Johnson - I think the loss of Klayton Adams, aka the brain behind this very successful run game, is a big fucking deal. You don’t get to lose a guy like that and maintain your 2nd most explosive running game in the league. Maybe the team finds their groove as the season develops, but, there’s a very real risk this running game just isn’t the same this year.
And that puts the ball in Kyler Murray’s hands, needing to make a play. Yes, this is the first time I’ve mentioned him because, well, does anyone really trust Kyler Murray? I certainly don’t. And I certainly don’t at the end of the season, which just so happens to be the hardest part of the Cardinals schedule with games vs the Bucs, Rams x2, Texans, Falcons, and Bengals.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The defense takes a leap after finally having enough talent to leap, ending the year as a surprise top 10 unit in the league. The offense, however, takes a step back behind a weaker running game. There is a guy that benefits though and he’s our first Best Bet as he finally conquers his white whale: Trey McBride over 4.5 receiving TDs (-125)
Atlanta Falcons (11-6)
Projected Finishes: #13 Offense, #15 Defense
Win Total: 8.5 wins, Division: +210, Super Bowl: +6500
Let’s bring in some help from an Atlanta native on this one:
“Well I’m happy to report that I own two bottles of Bijan Dijon from the Bijan Mustardson company, so ready for an exciting season. Pumped for Penix. They say he’ll be getting Kyle Pitts more targets 😂
And yea, I think we’ll be fun and frisky. We’re still in a pretty shit division, so got that going for us as well”
- Jimmy L.
Wow, can you smell the confidence?! It smells… it smells like mustard!!
I personally love the Falcons this year (and am way overloaded on their over 8.5 wins + division winner bets).
Here’s what I wrote about the Falcons defense last year:
“Instead of adding an impact player to the 3rd worst pressure rate defense in the league, the Falcons took an old QB to add to their very old, newly signed QB, and then proceeded to let their #1 and #2 best pass rushers - LB Bud Dupree and DT Calais Campbell - walk in free agency. DE Grady Jarrett is back after tearing his ACL in Week 8 last season, but I’m not banking on Jarrett + rookie DT Ruke Orhorhoro adding up to the 13 sacks that left this offseason.”
And wouldn’t ya know it… the Falcons finished the year with the 2nd worst pressure rate defense (23.7% Pressure Rate) in the league. Incredible.
So after last season, everyone was wondering: will the Falcons not invest in a pass rush again!? Shockingly, the answer this time was an unequivocal “NO”, as the Falcons added three key pieces to rush the passer this offseason in FA DE Leonard Floyd, 1st round LB Jalon Walker, and (the traded up for) 1st round DE James Pearce Jr. GM Terry Fontenot is risking his job on those three guys producing enough pressure to avoid another bottom three finish.
He’s also risking his job on Michael Penix Jr, who has an opportunity to play well this year and generate tens of thousands of newly ice cold takes about when the Falcons (stupidly) traded up to take him #8 overall after handing 36 year old Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles tear a 4 year / $180mm deal. Sometimes you just happen to get results despite having a god awful process, and I fear / hope that may be the case this year with the Atlanta Falcons.
They finally might have a pass rush, which, combined with a defense that was #3 overall in preventing explosive plays, might finally allow this defense to flex their muscles a bit. The one big concern is the offensive line - is that an important unit in American Football? - with the Falcons already relying on their 3rd string RT Michael Jerrell after they lost their above average starting RT Kaleb McGary for the season and their very average backup RT Jack Nelson to a (thankfully) short term calf injury. The one mid-sized concern is the pass catching group, as after WR1 Drake London, the team is relying on WR Darnell Mooney, dealing with a very sketchy and unclear “shoulder injury”, and the neighborhood bike of fantasy TEs, Kyle Pitts (although some are saying this is finally his year… just what I’m hearing).
To bring it all together, why the fuck do I have this team winning 11 games?! It’s certainly not because of HC Raheem Morris, who although a good coach for 58/60 minutes, is absolutely going to cost the Falcons a game this year with his time mismanagement. I fundamentally just like the Falcons schedule, don’t think much of the rest of the division, really didn’t think much of Kirk Cousins last season, believe in the offseason acquisitions, and most importantly, think the Penix-London connection is going to feed families. We can call them “Covent Garden”.
(Yes, that was a history of prostitution in early industrial revolution London reference for you. Yes, I also realize that the Falcons are only the 2nd team in this writeup. We have a long ways to go, pal)
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Falcons over 8.5 wins (-110) for sure. And a 0.5u sprinkle on Drake London to lead the league in receiving (+1600)
Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Projected Finishes: #1 Offense, #12 Defense
Win Total: 11.5 wins, Division: -155, Super Bowl: +700
The Ravens are kinda… boring this year? The coaching staff is intact, all the offensive weapons are back, and although there’s some turnover in the secondary, I really don’t have many concerns about that unit after adding FA CB Chidobe Awuzie and S Malaki Starks in the 1st round. The defense started off rough last season under new DC Zach Orr, but by the halfway point, that group had recovered from the loss of former DC Mike Macdonald and returned back to their rightful spot amongst the best defenses in the league.
Lamar and Henry need to stay healthy after putting up two of the all time great QB and RB seasons last year, respectively, but other than that, what’s there to be concerned about?
…
Well shit, I guess I’ll be going! Feeling very positive about your team, Ravens fans!
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The Ravens finally get over the hump and win the Super Bowl (+700). Purple is my favorite color
Buffalo Bills (12-5)
Projected Finishes: #2 Offense, #13 Defense
Win Total: 12.5 wins, Division: -270, Super Bowl: +750
Kinda unfortunate that the Ravens and the Bills are back to back here, no? They’re both just kinda known commodities at this point.
Last year I was concerned about the defense taking a step back after their under the hood metrics took a dive in 2023. Even if those metrics-concerns did bear fruit with the defense taking a step back, I forgot that Sean McDermott is still one of the greatest coaches in the league and could give a shit about this team ranking 31st in Punts per Drive % (31%) or 3rd worst in Redzone Trips per Drive % (36%). When you coach your team to generate turnovers and then lead the league in Turnover Differential by 50% (+24 vs the #2 Steelers at +16), you can live with a lot of suboptimal play defensively.
On that note, yes, I am a little concerned about the Bills defense this year. They really were not that good defensively and with questions in the secondary (again) and DE Joey Bosa’s disintegrating corpse as their big swing to generate a pass rush this offseason, there is some smoke here
On offense, Josh Allen had a career-best year taking care of the ball and the offense thrived because of it, only coughing up the ball 8 times all year, best in the league. Although I do miss a good old fashioned 3rd down arm punt from a guy that could throw a football over them mountains, we’re might just have live with the fact that Josh Allen doesn’t want to turn the ball over anymore 😔
What he wants to do and what he actually does though? Those are different, and I have to believe that even if the Bills make it six(!!) consecutive years being top 3 in total takeaways, Josh Allen and the Bills may have another bottom 10 finish in turnovers after doing so in 2022 + 2023.
And even if they don’t, defensively I’m just not there with this team again. They should dominate the division, just as they’ve done every year in the 2020s, but this definitely a “I’ll believe it when I see it” team in the playoffs, versus Mahomes or otherwise!
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
James Cook finishes top 5 in rushing TDs for the second year in a row. Did you know that James Cook only played 48% of Bills snaps in 2024? Despite that, he somehow hit my preseason 80/1 bet on him to lead the league in rushing TDs (split threeways between Henry + Gibbs, but still). After giving Cook a 4 year / $48mm extension, I’d like to think that the Bills will allow him to play more than 50% of the snaps
Carolina Panthers (7-10)
Projected Finishes: #15 Offense, #32 Defense
Win Total: 6.5 wins, Division: +440, Super Bowl: +10000
My friend Ryan S. - no relation - did such a great job with his writeup, I scrapped most of mind and am handing it off to him:
“I want to have a positive outlook on the season, but my brain won’t let me. In theory, this team should be better than it was last year but there have been a few bad omens this preseason: Jaycee Horn’s car accident right outside of the stadium; Adam Thielen not quite asking out but basically asking out; trading Thielen and then Jalen Coker immediately hurting his quad (pretty important for running, from what I have heard); and finally, getting blown out in all three preseason games.
On Offense, I think QB Bryce Young will be more comfortable throwing downfield this year thanks to Tetairoa McMillan. That should open up more of the short and intermediate stuff and help the offense see more 3rd-and-short situations. McMillan could have a real shot at OROY if the offense is any good at all because he’ll get the lion’s share of the targets. I’m doubtful that Chuba Hubbard can replicate his statistical success from last year, mainly because they want to spread the ball around more than they did last year.
On Defense, they spent a lot of money, but I think they still suck. Inside Linebacker is (again) an extremely thin position for us, which puts a ton of pressure on DT Derrick Brown and those expensive new DTs we went after in free agency. The pass rush should be better (how could it not be?) but I still expect to see a defense ranked somewhere in the 26th-32nd range.
I expect the Panthers to be a lot more entertaining and still finish with a 7-10 record.
- Ryan S.
Thank you, Mr Ryan S.!
(I swear it’s not me - I have way too many friends named “Ryan” for a Ryan. There’s also Steelers fan Brian. It’s a lot)
But ya… basically covered everything I wanted to cover:
Top 10 pick WR Tetairoa McMillan is exactly what this team needs as a big-bodied, effective X receiver on the outside, and could totally dominate from Game 1 on with a 30%+ target share now that WR Adam Thielen is gone;
Chuba Hubbard isn’t repeating his pretty dominant rushing campaign from last season now that he has competition in the backfield (this is good for the team, bad for fantasy);
The defense, worst in the league by a mile last season, is still going to be bad, really bad, even if they likely won’t be historically bad vs the run now that their best defender, DT Derrick Brown, is back after missing almost all of last season with a meniscus tear; and
Panthers finish 7-10
Ryan synergy for ya, folks!
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Tetairoa McMillan 1000+ receiving yards (+170). He truly is exactly what this team needs. Oh, and one of RB Rico Dowdle or rookie RB Trevor Etienne ruins Chuba’s fantasy value by taking most of the passing game work out of the backfield
Chicago Bears (7-10)
Projected Finishes: #16 Offense, #19 Defense
Win Total: 7.5 wins, Division: +600, Super Bowl: +3500
Here’s what I wrote in my Bold Prediction for the Bears last season:
“Despite Caleb Williams being that generational QB prospect, I think his career is going to be very similar to Russell Wilson. Every time I watch Caleb talk or interact with his teammates, it feels so… what’s the word? Manicured. You can see the gears turning as he tries to figure out what to say, whether it’s in response to a question from the press, going through film with his coach, or talking on the sidelines”
- Ryan S. (me)
Didn’t nail everything in that quote - Caleb’s “generational” status is certainly in question after his performance last year - but the vibes around Caleb are still just kinda… off. He says the right things and performs the way a QB should, but then you get these weird stories about nobody coming to his defense in a joint practice after a late hit and wonder… is this dude talented enough as a 1-2-3 processor to make up for the fact that he kinda seems like a phony; someone that will only be tolerated by his teammates if he’s winning them games they have no business winning? It’s why the Russell Wilson comparison seemed so apt to me: his politicking as a professional NFL QB routine was all fine and dandy when he was cooking in Seattle, but once he dropped off, all of his former teammates came out of the woodwork to shit on the guy. It’s all pretty… curious.
Anywayyyyys, not sure if you’ve heard, but the Bears somehow convinced the #1 hottest coaching candidate, former Lions stud OC Ben Johnson, to lead their team. And let’s just say it now, so long as he’s wearing a hat, Ben Johnson is 1000% a stud (don’t look up pictures without a hat).
The crazy thing is that he’s not even the first or second hottest HC in the division, at least so long as Kevin O'Connell and Dan Campbell stick around.
(Alright, alright… enough pandering to the audience. Let’s get back to football.)
I hate to say it, but despite all the excitement around the team in the Chicago area, every Bears fans I’ve talked to and heard from is saying the same things after being burnt by misplaced expectations of competence in years past. Here’s the checklist for the 2025-26 season:
The Bears need to figure out what they want to be on defense - they’re switching from a very zone-heavy approach to a (former Saints DC then HC) DC Dennis Allen-led, man-heavier approach, or in table form via PFF
The secondary has looked dominant at times over the last few years, but fundamentally, this team needs to figure out if they have the young guys to grow with back there and what they want to be (and can be) up front, since a lot of this team’s success up front is relying on the Jenga block that is a (seemingly) declining, 32 year old DT Grady Jarrett;
The Bears need to figure out if Caleb Williams is the right guy to pair with Ben Johnson - I’m dealing with a small sample size of friends and sportswriters here, so please tell me if I’m wrong here Bears fans, but from what I’ve heard, it seems like the team is evaluating whether Caleb is the guy to make Ben Johnson work and not the other way around. And honestly, it kinda makes sense! You just brought in one of the hottest HC candidates in years for a bunch of money, and knew exactly what he needed from the QB position longterm, namely, someone that can process 1-2-3 at a very high level from play-action. It’s not a ridiculous ask either; in fact, it’s kinda how all of the best teams’ QBs operate, in one way or another (except Cincinnati, we’re onto you next). Caleb was in such a poorly designed offense last season, it’s hard to even evaluate the guy properly, but we do know that his first instinct is scramble right now and that long term, that isn’t going to maximize his potential. Ben is evaluating Caleb, not the other way around; and
The Bears need to win at least 7 games - culmination of figuring out the defense and figuring out what Caleb is on offense, but for things to proceed as usual into next year - aka Caleb as QB and Ryan Poles as GM - this team doesn’t need to make the playoffs or even compete in Week 18 for a Wild Card spot. They just need to be competent and show improvement. That’s 7 wins with this roster.
How do I think this goes? Well, I certainly won’t be making any hot takes on this team in September, as I think it’s going to take at least a month of some rough QB play before Caleb has a chance to prove what he is or is not. But 7 wins seems about right to me in this gauntlet of a division with big questions at the most important position!
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Coleston Loveland ends the year as a consensus top 5-7 TE in the NFL, after a phenomenal season blocking in-line and a very good season being the fluid route-runner and YAC guy that made us Michigan fans cherish him so much on that 2023 squad
Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
Projected Finishes: #3 Offense, #29 Defense
Win Total: 9.5 wins, Division: +250, Super Bowl: +2000
And we’re onto Cincinnati, a word that I consistently misspell as “Cincinatti” every first attempt. Not a great speller - never have been - and haven’t had much incentive to get much better since this whole computers thing took off and I got traumatized by my 3rd grade spelling bee. My word was “Wednesday”, a word I so confidently thought I knew how to spell when I walked up to the podium in front of my entire class. Ultimately though, I did not know how to spell W-E-N-S-D-A-Y, they hit that fucking little high pitched bell thing, and I sat down, wallowing in my shame.
Sigh is right, Frank / Bill.
Since we’ve already gone off on one tangent, let’s try another (since we all know what this team is, don’t we?): I’ve been thinking a lot about the hypothetical Penei Sewell vs Jamar Chase meme and what this team would be right now if they had a top 3 OT in the league. The meme lives on in one man’s head.
We all know that the Burrow-Chase connection is the best in the league right now amongst QB-WR duos, but what would this team look like if they had that dominant RT they could run behind? Would the defense be nearly as bad if the Bengals could confidently run a ball-control offense behind a more developed and successful run game? Would the drop off really be that egregious from Chase + Higgins to Higgins + Iosivas if this team didn’t need to score 34 points a game to win every Sunday? Idk, kind of an impossible question to answer, but it’s been on my mind.
Quickly now, what’s going on with the Bengals? Basically the same two questions as last year (it’s exactly the same two questions as last year):
Can the offensive line keep Burrow upright and healthy for 17+ games?; and
Can the defense return to form (after a bottom 5 showing in
20232024) with theadditions of DT Sheldon Rankins, S Geno Stone, and the return of S Vonn Bellfiring of DC Lou Anarumo, the hiring of Al Golden, and a return to a far less complicated set of defensive rules to follow for this young defensive core?
If both of these questions are “yes”, then this team is a surefire Super Bowl contender. If either is no, Bengals fans are probably living another very sweaty Week 18 for the 2nd year in a row.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
This is the storyline I’m wishcasting here. Imagine this, folks…
The Bengals make the playoffs as the 6 seed, go on the road at Arrowhead and defeat #3 seed Chiefs + Mahomes before promptly losing to their division rival, the #1 seed Baltimore Ravens. In this scenario, we (1) finally get one of the Ravens or Bills in the Super Bowl, but (2) Lamar or Allen are fundamentally unsatisfied by their accomplishment knowing that they never actually had to beat their archnemesis Mahomes to get there.
I think it’s great and preseason playoff predictions are ridiculous anyways without knowing the seeds. Let’s have some fun with it!
Cleveland Browns (3-14)
Projected Finishes: #32 Offense, #23 Defense
Win Total: 5.5 wins, Division: +3000 (lol, holy shit, Browns!), Super Bowl: +30000
Let me clear about one thing before I run as fast as I possibly can from this Browns team: that #32 offensive PPG ranking is only there because I don’t expect Flacco to play more than 6 games for the Browns this season. If I knew I was getting a whole season of the Flacco + Stefanski pairing like we did to close out the 2023 season, this team might have 8-9 wins on the board.
Unfortunately, it looks like we’re going to be playing roulette with Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, and Shedeur Sanders all year, and I think it’s going to be a lot of Dillon Gabriel, aka a guy that’s clearly not a starting NFL QB. Besides that, their once dominant OL is old and falling apart and the defense, once a top unit in the league, has holes all over the place now.
Hope you enjoy that new contract and your Cleveland mansion, Myles Garrett… was it worth it?
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The Browns trade Njoku before the deadline and rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr beats out the other rookie TEs for the most 2025 receptions. It’s not much, but it’s what I have for this team
Dallas Cowboys (5-12)
Projected Finishes: #5 Offense, #31 Defense
Win Total: 7.5 wins, Division: +700, Super Bowl: +6000 (the “Cowboy Tax” is real on these)
Last year, my friend, professional editor, and Dallas sadboi extraordinaire, Adam R gave us such lines as, “all frosting, no cake”, “Groundhogs Day with an appetite for twisted metal”, and “There’s only one thing saving this team from it’s inevitable .500 season of disappointment: a 17-game schedule”. Brilliant stuff.
This year’s quote is a bit shorter, but just a potent. Let ‘er rip, Adam!
These Cowboys, like the last 29 squads before them, are all hat and no cattle.
They’re not demonstrably better at any position group from this year to last outside of arguably WR2 (head case), while watching even the Giants pass them by. And keep in mind, this was a team that was 3-5 BEFORE Dak’s hammy popped last season.
The good (?) news: Arch Manning, get ready to speak Johnny Walker Blue, bby!
-Adam R.
Little does Adam know, Arch Manning absolutely shit the bed at Ohio State after he sent that, so even a hellish, treadmill of mediocrity season from the Cowboys might get it done!
Before the Micah trade, I was intrigued by this team, particularly the offense and particularly their newly hired OC Klayton Adams (read about him in the Arizona Cardinals section above). Now? They’re just a fun fantasy team that, god willing, will still have the trio of Dak-CeeDee-Pickens all playing during fantasy championships on Week 17. Real risk of a shutdown here when the season turns sour.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Some people may not think this is bold enough, but I think the Cowboys, when they don’t immediately give up a 14 point 1Q lead, are going to be able to run the ball with the (not quite) Thunder + Lightening combo of Javonte Williams, now many many months recovered from his ACL, and rookie RB Jaydon Blue. My respect for Klayton Adams is way up there, and I think that trio above might be done playing football games by Week 15 - give me a break!
Denver Broncos (11-6)
Projected Finishes: #12 Offense, #1 Defense
Win Total: 9.5 wins, Division: +290, Super Bowl: +2800
Oh baby! Broncos country… let’s ride!
A top 3 defense in the league added one of the best (hopefully not a “formerly”) safeties in the league in Talanoa Hufanga, one of the best (hopefully not a “formerly”) linebackers in the league in Dre Greenlaw, and my #1 CB in this draft in rookie Jahdae Barron out of Texas. The defense is going to be nasty. Potentially nasty-enough-to-win-a-Super-Bowl-by-themselves nasty, but we’ll see.
The offense has some pass catchers this year, with proven commodities like WR Courtland Sutton and new TE Evan Engram leading the way, with tons of wild card, rookie contract WRs like Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin, and rookie Pat Bryant there to support.
There’s really only two questions with this team holding them back from winning 11+ games:
Can Bo Nix come close to repeating his rookie-record breaking 1.4% Turnover-Worthy Play rate, a rate that was good for 3rd best in the league amongst all QBs?; and
Can this somewhat older OL stay healthy and gel with new additions RB JK Dobbins and rookie RB RJ Harvey to produce a functional running game, after failing to do so last year?
If the answer to either is “yes”, then I think this team easily makes the playoffs. If both are a “yes”, the skies are higher. I’m kinda banking on the latter.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Is it bold to say the Broncos win a playoff game? How about JK Dobbins plays 15 games for the first time since his rookie year? Broncos to win the AFC West (+300) is great value
Detroit Lions (11-6)
Projected Finishes: #7 Offense, #6 Defense
Win Total: 10.5 wins, Division: +185, Super Bowl: +1100
As you may recall from the previous years’ write-ups, I have a lot of Lions fans in my life, so let’s hand off to them before I wrap things up:
“High expectations for the Lions this year. The schedule is very tough, but Dan Campbell gets to show his true colors and prove that he’s the genius, not Ben Johnson.
I’m doubling down on my prediction from last year, Hutch wins DPOY and Comeback Player of the Year. Lions win the division, go 13-4, and win the Super Bowl.
Jared Goff Jared Goff Jared Goff”
- Jake M.
“It’s interesting. I think the Lions have somehow become a slept on team in the NFC North with the coordinator departure. The Packers and Bears have division momentum while the Lions return most of their young core and get Aidan Hutchinson back healthy in the lineup.
Dan Campbell has proven he can identify young coordinator talent as good as most in the league, and the Lions bring back a supremely talented roster, highlighted by their skill position players on offense, the best right tackle in football, and possibly the league’s best safety duo.
The biggest concern is the early retirement of all pro center Frank Ragnow in the middle of the offensive line and the development of a new play-caller on both offense and defense.
The trendy pick is to fade the Lions in the north. The right pick is to keep riding with the defending champs”
[Editor’s note: NFC North Champs, not NFC or Super Bowl champs]
-Collin S.
And let’s actually let my friend Jacob close us out here after some of my thoughts / reactions:
The Lions aren’t being slept on, they have the 2nd best Super Bowl odds in the NFC lol;
The interior of the offensive line being fully replaced is a bit concerning, but I just think they’re gonna run the ball more, since that’s what their new OGs are particularly good at;
Jared Goff better have grown and learned a lot after the departure of OC Ben Johnson, as his first year stats with the Lions without Johnson were truly abysmal. Tentatively hopeful there;
I can’t wait to see how man-heavy this defense is after Aaron Glenn and his man fetish (defense… man defense fetish) are no longer in the building. Expecting there to be a rough couple weeks to start the year while they find the right balance, but I just don’t think you can win 3-4 playoff games in a row playing that much man in the NFL, so long term, this is a positive move; and
The season might hinge on how healthy Hutch looks in return from breaking his leg, as the rest of the front 7 isn’t going to generate any pressure by themselves. Most recent example I can think of is Tony Pollard, and it took a full season for him to get back to proper form after his injury
Alright, onto Jacob S.:
“I’m feeling excited for this Lions season. Last season had so much pressure from both internal and external expectations that it was hard to enjoy 15-2 (15 fucking wins?!). It felt like going 15-2 was “expected”. If you step back, we’ve won the division back to back, lost only 4 starters across all 3 units, and have the most talented Lions roster of my lifetime - including 10 potential Pro Bowlers / All Pros. The North runs through Detroit and times are great.
The main counters: brain drain at the coordinator position is real and we have an entirely revamped interior OL. It’s concerning. Goff needs stability on the OL, and so much depends on our dominant run game. Best case is it takes 4-6 weeks for the new unit to gel and they become a top 5 unit. Worst case is they are a middling unit and all of a sudden those 3rd and short or 4th and short doesn’t get converted as consistently.
The other thing: they didn’t address depth at the edge position. Hutch should be a perennial top-3 DPOY candidate, but he needs help. I’ll feel a lot better if they had a handshake with ZaDarius all along and he comes in post-training camp. [Editors note: this was sent before it was reported that ZaDarius is not in fact returning to the Lions] Add in a hard schedule, prime time games, and there are reasons to doubt that they can repeat last year.
I tend to fall in between the two extremes, but a lot closer to rosy. I’m taking over 10.5 wins all day. They’re just too talented and too bought it. They’re a lock to make the playoffs and a heavy favorite to win the division [Editors note: this was sent before the Micah Parsons deal ruined Jacob S.’ Wednesday], but they won’t get the 1 seed. Stay healthy and start peaking when it counts. The NFC is wide open, so bring it.
I’m thinking Supey baby. See you in SF (Santa Clara)”
-Jacob S.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
If you’re a believer in the Lions and think they can still win 12+ games and the division with this dominant roster, I think you have to take a look at Dan Campbell to win CotY (+2300). The narrative - lost both coordinators! - is right there with a very murky CotY race right now
Green Bay Packers (11-6)
Projected Finishes: #6 Offense, #5 Defense
Win Total: 10.5 wins, Division: +170, Super Bowl: +1300
“Speaking of best rosters in the league, the Packers could be holding that honor coming into next season if their young guys develop. This team has potential studs all over the roster, with too many young WRs to count and nearly double digit 1st round picks playing on the defensive side of the ball.”
Wrote that last year… some things never change, huh? Oh, sorry, well one thing did change actually… the Packers have this guy now.
Just so everyone’s clear, I was already on the Packers to make the NFC title game before the Micah trade - I’m the guy that listened to the Arcade Fire EP before they released Funeral, okay? Ask your older brother or, Jesus… dad? How old is my audience nowadays now that we’ve broken friends-and-family containment? - but he truly is the skeleton key that can unlock this defense.
For years now there’s been three key problems with the Packers defense:
They didn’t have the right DC in the building to get the most out of their young core - Jeff Hafley is that ✅
The secondary just wasn’t good enough - they replaced CB Eric Stokes with CB Nate Hobbs, but I’m feeling tentative optimistic here [half a ✅]
They didn’t have a guy that could defend the run and finish plays at a high level when rushing the QB - Micah Parsons is a big, fat ✅ ✅ on that one
So, as with so many of the good teams this year, it really all comes down to health and whether their secondary can be good enough to not cost them games.
I’m a Jordan Love believer: even though he makes 1-2 plays a game that make you question your belief in true Love, I still think he’s elite. Even after last year when his play noticeably slipped, my opinion of him actually went up because, as people love to forget / remind you (depending on your news sources), he was injured almost the entire year between him nearly blowing out his knee in Week 1 vs the Eagles - in Brazil though, how fun! 💃 - and injuring his groin just as he was recovered from the knee!
How the dude wasn’t out for the season after getting crunched there, I do not know.
The Packers are back and after a couple years of just being “the youngest team in the league”, they finally look like a team that can win multiple ways, perhaps even multiple times, on the way to a potential Super Bowl.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Josh Jacobs goes for 2000+ all purpose yards and the the WR duo of rookie Matthew Golden and Romeo Doubs ends the season as a top duo in the league. I’m holding on for dear life to my “Romeo Doubs could be a Hall of Fame WR if he gets the right QB and system” take
Houston Texans (10-7)
Projected Finishes: #26 Offense, #4 Defense
Win Total: 9.5 wins, Division: +115, Super Bowl: +2500
Last season, the Texans were everyone’s favorite “under the radar” Super Bowl contender in the AFC. After last season’s offensive line disaster and a clear drop in CJ Stroud’s play, they are no longer all that sexy of a pick, although priced similarly to how they were last year. That’s the perk of being the theoretically best team in the AFC South, I suppose.
I think the Texans situation is really simple, as the defense is going to repeat as a top 5 unit in the NFL. So it comes down to the offense, namely: what’s the impact of moving from OC Bobby Slowik to new OC Nick Caley (not “Nick Haley”, as I will undoubtably write at least 4-5x this year)?
The Texans fell off hard last heard behind some dogshit play calling from Slowik (same as 2023, tbh) and a complete deterioration of competent play across the OL:
Dropped from the #13 most efficient offense to the #29;
Dropped from #18 on Early Down Success Rate to #25;
Dropped from #15 in Points per Drive to #25;
Need I go on?
On the play calling side of things, anything is better than Bobby Slowik who, despite spending nearly three years with PFF, thought that running into his bad offensive line on every 1st down was the best path towards success. Good riddance! I cannot tell you how much watching Texans drives pissed me off. Well, I could, but… word counts, audience retention.
In comes Nick Haley, having spent the majority of his NFL coaching career as a TEs coach under Belichick and the last two years under Sean McVay as the TEs coach + Passing Game Coordinator. Those are two good names. Maybe more importantly, in comes an entirely new offensive line and Offensive Line Coordinator. We still don’t really know who is going to slot where, but truly anything is better than last year’s performance.
The running game? Well, that still might be a problem, as their RB1 Joe Mixon might not even play this year after hurting the same ankle he jacked up last season (and having a ton of miles on him), but hopefully some combination of a reanimated corpse of Nick Chubb, a revived Dameon Pierce, and rookie RB Woody Marks can help the Texans navigate their way to a passable run game.
Stroud also has two new weapons - Iowa State teammates WR Jayden Higgins and WR Jaylin Noel - plus some hopefully more impactful play from 2nd year TE (and Stroud’s college teammate!) Cade Stover.
It all comes down to the offensive line though. If they can be passable, the Texans can win this division again despite going from the 9th easiest schedule last year to the 7th hardest this year. Hell, if they’re slightly more than passable and one of the rookie WRs hits immediately, this team could win 12-13 games behind that defense. We’ll see!
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Will Anderson, an absolute beast of a man, wins DPoY (+1100) after leading the Texans to the 2nd best defense in the league
Indianapolis Colts (6-11)
Projected Finishes: #25 Offense, #21 Defense
Win Total: 7.5 wins, Division: +350, Super Bowl: +8000
There’s a lot of interesting things that are about to happen on the defensive side of the ball for the Colts with new DC Lou Anarumo in the building, replacing fired Cover-3 merchant Gus Bradley. I expect the defense to look at lot better than expected by the end of the year, with the secondary having a real chance to be one of the best units in the league after adding CB Charvarius Ward from SF and S Cam Bynum from Minnesota.
But this team isn’t doing jack shit with Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson duking it out for who gets the pleasure of completing 50% of their passes this season. More importantly, the team is under new ownership after the death of Jim Irsay passed the team down to his daughters. We all know how this is going to go…
At some point around the middle of this season, the team is going to be under .500 and the new owners are going to come in, fire HC Shane Steichen, fire GM Chris Ballard, see what they have in Anthony Richardson, not like what they see, and blow the whole team up so they can build it in their image.
I still think the offensive weapons and talent on defense is enough to get them to 6 wins - they somehow went 8-9 last year, an absolute miracle - but all of this has already been written. Just gotta pick which Monday it goes down on.
The Week 11 BYE after a brutal loss overseas in Berlin sounds good, doesn’t it?
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Tyler Warren immediately proves me wrong - see my fantasy writeup for more details - and puts up an 80 / 900 / 5 stat line in his rookie year, good for the TE3 finish
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #21 Offense, #22 Defense
Win Total: 7.5 wins, Division: +260, Super Bowl: +6500
I have no idea what’s about to happen with this Jags team. Truly lost. Let’s list some shit out instead of writing coherent paragraphs, shall we?
The Jags hired Liam Coen, known for saying DUUUUVAAAAL in a weird way and pulling a 41 TD season out of Baker Mayfield on the Bucs last season;
Last season Liam Coen had a top 7 offensive line to build his offense around. This year, he’s projected by basically everyone to have a bottom 7 offense line;
Trevor Lawrence has disappointed vs expectations as the #1 pick. He’s been particularly bad when pressured, aka last year when pressured, Lawrence was was:
#36 in EPA / play (-0.56);
#40 in Success Rate (23%);
#43 in YpA (4.4); and
#40 in Completion Rate (42%)
These numbers are in line with the likes of Sam Howell, Daniel Jones, and fan favorite, Will Levis! NOT GOOD!
Lawrence throws a very particular ball very well, namely, a very hard, very fast, high and tight spiral. Previously, he had guys like 5’11 Christian Kirk there to try to catch those balls. Now he has 6’3 sophomore WR Brian Thomas Jr and 6’1 rookie WR Travis Hunter to throw the ball to. This is a better fit, personnel-wise;
The defense, gosh, who knows about this defense. They have some nice pieces but they’re one of the middle of the pack teams that will swing somewhere around league average based on their fumble and injury luck
So… they could win 6 games. They could win 10. Why don’t we split the difference, eh?
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Last year I said, “Trevor Lawrence over 21.5 passing TDs (-120) looks like a lock to me”. This year, after all of last year’s success with that bet and this offense, it’s over 22.5 passing TDs (-120) and we’re running it back, baby!
Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Projected Finishes: #11 Offense, #7 Defense
Win Total: 11.5 wins, Division: -110, Super Bowl: +800
I have a friend named Kyle and Kyle is a Chiefs fan. He grew up in Michigan but one side of his family is from Kansas, so he claims things like the Chiefs, Jayhawks, and Royals as “his teams”. He also can be quite insufferable when his teams suffer through any sort of success, as he can be quite the nervous Nellie even when things are never in doubt. I’ve experienced this first hand many times, most recently when the Chiefs won their 2nd consecutive Super Bowl vs the 49ers, a game that was never in doubt (and also known as the night I called out the “corndog” play that won the Chiefs the game in OT before the snap, aka maybe my favorite “football prognosticator” moment of all time).
Kyle got a paragraph of me shitting on him last year and gets another paragraph this year because the pro team he cares about the most just went Super Bowl Win - Super Bowl Win - Super Bowl Loss. That last one stings though, I’m sure. To have Andy Reid lose to Nick Sirianni? You gotta feel for the guy, no?
Anyways, here’s Kyle on the 2025-26 Chiefs:
“1. I think a low key huge deal is that this is the most continuity that Mahomes has had out of a receiving corps since the Tyreek years, and while he’s had absolutely wild offensive coordinator continuity for how successful they’ve been, I think the talking heads are always like “well he has Reid and Kelce he should always be good” which is an oversimplification. Also Jalen Royals might be very very good in 2026.
2. If Josh Simmons is what the camp reports are saying he is, then that’s obviously a huge deal for Mahomes and Pacheco and the whole offense. But I’m really intrigued by the combination of that and Elijah Mitchell. Another frustrating part of the Chiefs offense last season was that they had David Montgomery and Old David Montgomery at running back with nothing close to Gibbs. If Elijah can stay healthy and catch some passes, his speed could be an interesting move.
3. The addition of Big Bob Tonyan rules. Noah Grey is obviously someone everyone expects to become the red zone guy on quick zone read routes and the Kelce routes. On Kelce, he’s old and may just have his career ended on the field this year, causing Taylor to run out to the soundtrack of the lead single off Life of a Showgirl on September 13 at 13:13 military time. But in that scenario, I love having Tonyan as he learned how to operate in the red zone from Rodgers and is a great blocker.
4. I fucking love our front seven but so does everyone. But I’m very nervous we’re rolling with Bryan Cook again - that guy is so bad. Chammari Conner was low key not terrible last season seeing action when Reid was hurt, but safety is obviously the huge weak spot on the defense.”
-Kyle T.
One more thing from Kyle. I’m not sure if this is just a Kyle thing or a broader Chiefs fan thing but… well, just take a look at text exchange about “The Skyy Moore Curse”
I agree with most of what Kyle said though (excluding the “SKYY curse”), although I more closely align with my far less wordy other Chiefs fan friend:
“I’m a little less bullish than other people regarding the regular season…”
- Jason B.
Thank you, Jason. I agree. It’s really hard to go 11-0 in one score games in a season. It’s even harder to bat 1.000 in one score games the following year.
I am really bullish about the offense getting back to the explosive passing game once Rashee Rice returns from suspension in Week 7. I also am a big believer in Travis Kelce this year, coming into the season not fat and not recovering from a few months of drinking and traveling around the world with his hot new(ish) gf, now fiancé, how about THAT!
I couldn’t get myself to have them losing the division with the team so rock solid, but do think, just like last year, it’s gonna be really goddamn hard for this team to be lucky enough to make it all the way to the Super Bowl (and win the game).
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Over Mahomes everywhere once more: Mahomes over 4000.5 passing yards (-112); Mahomes over 27.5 passing TDs (-112); Mahomes to throw 35+ TDs (+320); and his primary weapon on the revitalized long-ball, Xavier Worthy 1000+ receiving yards (+150)
Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #13 Offense, #26 Defense
Win Total: 6.5 wins, Division: +1100, Super Bowl: +12500
Got another friend for you folks. This time it’s James from the Bay Area; James from the Bay Area you’re on the phone with The Danger Zone:
“I know better than to have hope. And I have no real reason to, but I just kinda believe in [GM] Spytek?
Obviously the window for Pete Carroll has to be pretty short, and we’re going straight into win now mode. Brock Bowers is Gronk, Jeanty easy ORoY, and yeah, of course Geno was always the real deal and has a lot of good years left. Doesn’t matter that there’s lack of talent behind him, Maxx Crosby can hold down an entire defense.
Either that or Mark Davis got tricked into funding Pete Carroll’s retirement.
Oh well, at least the rest of the division is weak right now.”
- James C.
Thanks James, good and depressing just the way week like it. God, what wonderful friends I have - they basically write this monster for me!
Ultimately, the Raiders fortunes this year come down to two things, the two things that basically every team’s success or failure comes down to:
Can the slightly reshuffled OL provide better opportunities for rookie superstar RB Ashton Jeanty and can they do just enough to keep new QB Geno Smith upright? After several years squeezing a competent offense in Seattle behind a bottom 5 unit in the league, Geno doesn’t need much to be happy and competent; and
Is anyone going to separate themselves and make this secondary passable, because with one man wrecking crew Maxx Crosby at DE, all they need is passable to not be the Achilles heel that wrecks this team’s chances each and every week.
The second point is the primary concern tbh, as, although Pete Carroll did make some schematic adjustments away from it at the end of his tenure with the Seahawks, it always felt like he was one drink away from going all in on attempting to recreate the Legion of Boom, Cover 1 / Cover 3 defense, just this time without half a dozen Hall of Famers.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Brock Bowers finishes the year as TE3 overall - and y’all were taking him in the 2nd round, SMH - as the Raiders focus on the run game, even the snap share between Bowers and their other top 50 draft pick, TE Michael Mayer, while Geno reclaims his status as a “hey, he’s pretty good!” 3rd tier QB by focusing on throwing to his pretty good WR core of Jacobi Meyers, rookie Dont'e Thornton Jr., and Tre Tucker
Los Angeles Chargers (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #23 Offense, #11 Defense
Win Total: 9.5 wins, Division: +340, Super Bowl: +3000
We had one year - one year! - where I didn’t feel the unending, omnipresent dread that comes with being a Chargers fan, but all good things must end, and I fear the Chargers are about to set up for a year from hell.
It starts out with a bang, after our All Pro LT Rashawn Slater tore his patella tendon in practice, forcing this team to shuffle what was projected to be a top 10 unit in the league. Okay, that sucks but oh, what’s this now? Our one FA add on the OL, RG Mekhi Becton has a strange, babymama and drug-fueled story breaking? This is how it starts. The vibes are far from immaculate right now; how could they after we lost one guy and went from a top to bottom 10 unit in the league?!
Let’s get a little more specific in my fears here… this defense was on paper, a top 5 defense in the league last season. They were #1 in red zone defense, #4 in overall defensive efficiency, and #6 in EPA / play. Then you dig into the schedule and who they produced these glorious numbers versus, and realize these numbers were built on a foundation of lies! I mean look at this schedule last year
Cupcake shit. And every time they managed to play any halfway decent offense, they got blown up for 27+ points (or lost to Mahomes in the 4th quarter, a Charger special). This year, the Chargers don’t get a cupcake schedule and have the 5th most drastic change in difficulty of schedule, YoY. Ugh.
To make matters worse, we lost DT Poona Ford, as the traitorous scum decided to take his 5th best DT PFF ranking from last season to the team across the hall, joining the Rams to bolster their elite DL. He was key to the run defense not looking Staley-esque last year, and even he couldn’t prevent the Chargers from being the 25th ranked team defending explosive runs.
This front office does appear to have a real talent for drafting Day 2 and 3 guys to man the secondary, I’ll give them that, but right now our best pass rusher might be a 34 year old Khalil Mack. I don’t see how this team maintains their 19th best Pressure Rate (33.4%) from last season. We’re going to need a big leap from our young LBs Daiyan Henley and Junior Colson if we want to have a shot.
Maybe I’m just in my head about this Chargers team. Maybe rookie 1st round RB Omarion Hampton is the truth and figures out how to not run into the back of the OL 2x every drive, the combo of a returning WR Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey dominate as a 1-2 receiving punch, and the defense does well enough in their 2nd year under excellent DC Jesse Minter to keep everything from falling apart.
But I smell something in the air with this Chargers team, and it unfortunately smells very familiar. Disappointing season incoming.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Do I have another Tyler Conklin prediction in me after calling him to end the season as a TE1 last year? Opportunity’s there for the guy if he wants it!
Los Angeles Rams (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #30 Offense, #14 Defense
Win Total: 9.5 wins, Division: +210, Super Bowl: +2000
The 30th offense in PPG might seem like a bit of a reach, but this team only scored the 20th most PPG last season, and this season, oh this season, it seems like both the LA teams will be cursed to an 8-9 existence due to injuries to key players.
Here’s all ya need to know about my fade of the Rams: their QB Matthew Stafford is 37 years old, has been dealing with a fucked up back / spine for 5+ years now (after taking way too many hits during his Detroit days), and did I mention he’s 37 years old and has a bad back? And that his OL is not going to be as good as last year’s unit? That we don’t know the status of LT Alaric Jackson who is dealing with blood clots in his lungs? That his backup is an almost 34 year old Jimmy Garoppolo who has looked washed up for 3+ years now?
The Rams are going to be just fine to start the year with four easy games vs the Titans, Colts, Jags, and Saints through Week 9. But as those hits start to add up, I just couldn’t possibly project a fully healthy Stafford season at his age. As any Lions fan will tell you, the man took an ungodly number of hits he shouldn’t have taken back when he was in Detroit, and at a certain point, the body just doesn’t bounce back anymore. I fear we may have hit that point with Stafford.
Even if he does manage to play 17 games, I just don’t think he’s going to be able to be as effective as he needs to be for this team to succeed offensively. Stafford for so good throwing outside the pocket last year (#3 overall, 0.20 EPA / play) and if that back isn’t where it needs to be, those chunk plays (that made up 1/3 of the Rams’ overall passing EPA last season) won’t connect the way they need to when the pocket breaks down.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Part of me just wants to say “Stafford plays 17 games and they still go 8-9”, but I’ll go with this instead: one of the backup RBs, either Blake Corum or rookie Jarquez Hunter, steals 20% of snaps from Kyren Williams, eliminating his bell-cow RB role and frustrating fantasy managers all over this fair nation
Miami Dolphins (6-11)
Projected Finishes: #9 Offense, #28 Defense
Win Total: 7.5 wins, Division: +750, Super Bowl: +8000
It’s quite the turn of events that the Colts and Dolphins play each other in Week 1, as both teams were top 3 in my “Blow it up” factor this season.
The Dolphins are a pretty simple team though: if Tua stays upright and healthy, HC Mike McDaniel will get an elite offense out of this team, even if most of their plays are either deep shots to WR Tyreek Hill or behind the line of scrimmage BS passes to RB De’Vone Achane. On defense, despite having what I think is a very good DC in Anthony Weaver, the Dolphins are expected to struggle mightily. They have a fun, young, and potentially very good DL, but behind that? Eeeeesh, they’re still holding tryouts for their 2nd and 3rd CB spots.
I’m fairly confident that the Dolphins aren’t winning 7 games this season, but the organizational chaos of the team will live or die based on how many wins McDaniel can get out of the Colts, Bills (0), Pats, Jets, Panthers, Chargers, and Browns before he enters the fireable zone in Weeks 8 - 11, having to face the Falcons, Ravens, Bills, and Commanders in back to back to back… to back weeks before the Week 12 BYE.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Tyreek Hill screws his head on straight and finishes the year as a WR1, now recovered from the wrist injury that plagued him all last season. Tyreek Hill 1000+ receiving yards (+110) is the play
Minnesota Vikings (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #17 Offense, #7 Defense
Win Total: 8.5 wins, Division: +350, Super Bowl: +2500
The Vikings did everything they needed to do this past offseason, fixing their interior OL issues by drafting OG Donovan Jackson out of Ohio State + bringing in RG Will Fries and C Ryan Kelly from the Colts, hopefully fixing their lack of consistent interior pressure by signing (a hopefully not washed) DT Jonathan Allen, and likely fixing their lack of “oomph” at the RB position by trading for RB Jordan Mason, creating a potentially potent 1-2 punch with him and Aaron Jones (who is too old to be owning a backfield). The secondary has some questions after basically turning over the entire CB room and losing S Cam Bynum, but if there’s one thing DC Brian Flores has been good at every season, it’s been turning a “concerning” CB room into a competent unit.
This is a damn good roster; hell, the Vikings might even have the best overall roster in the league if you ignore the guy playing QB. Wouldn’t that be nice.
I loved JJ McCarthy coming out of Michigan; not just because he won my alma mater a national title, but because he showed all the leadership and processing traits I wanted to see in a QB prospect. But he was always going to need some time in the oven, and after losing his entire rookie year to a torn meniscus, JJ is essentially a rookie QB stepping onto the field in Week 1. And unfortunately for JJ and the Vikings, this rookie QB is stepping into a very hard schedule this year, one that really does not let up at any point in the year
I mean look at that. That is an absolute gauntlet. He gets the Browns in Week 5, Dallas in Week 15, and the maybe much improved Giants in Week 16 + the Bears x2. Every other week is either a Super Bowl contender (Eagles, Ravens, Lions x2, Packers x2), a team that will beat the shit out of you defensively (Steelers, Seattle), a team that will require you to put up 30 to beat them (Falcons, Bengals), or the Chargers (😉).
Kevin O’Connell is one of the best coaches in the league and is in the top 5 of NFL guys I’d want to have a beer with, but he can only do so much when he’s working with what’s essentially a rookie QB, one that was already very young coming out of the draft.
I fully expect the Vikings to be competitive all year, maybe so much so that they’re a team fighting it out for a Wild Card spot on our TVs in Week 18, but it’s a rookie QB that was never expected to come out and start slinging the ball with no issues! He’s going to need to take his lumps, and that’s fine! I just think we all need to take a deep breath and realize that the 14-3 season from last year is staying in last year, and that, despite the incredible roster around him, having such a young QB with the offense on his shoulders just inherently means you’re not a Day 1 Super Bowl contender.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Justin Jefferson fails to finish the year as a top 5 fantasy WR, as the Vikings focus more on running the ball to much success, with both Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason finishing as top 25 fantasy RBs
New England Patriots (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #24 Offense, #17 Defense
Win Total: 8.5 wins, Division: +550, Super Bowl: +8000
The Patriots have one of the easiest schedules in the league this season, but I feel like people are forgetting the fact that this team is both incredibly top heavy talent-wise and also… not very talented?
We all want to believe in this team because the flashes from QB Drake Maye last year were so much fun (when he wasn’t taking a terrible sack, that is) and new HC Mike Vrabel is worth at least three wins over that coaching staff from last year. Perhaps 8-9 is way too low for a guy like Vrabel, who, lest we forget, took a QB Ryan Tannehill-led Titans team WITHOUT DERRICK HENRY and turned them into the #1 seed in the AFC with a 12-5 record. One of the most deserving CotY awards ever, the job he did that season.
I just look at the pass catchers, how shallow the defensive talent pool is, and how shaky the OL projects to be, and, even with such an easy schedule, can’t get there to a winning record.
Prove me wrong, Mike!
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Stud rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson somehow exceeds expectations in fantasy, finishing with a Jahmyr Gibbs-like rookie season with 800 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards, and 10 total TDs
New Orleans Saints (3-14)
Projected Finishes: #29 Offense, #30 Defense
Win Total: 4.5 wins, Division: +1500, Super Bowl: +40000 (please contact me if you’d like to place this at better than market odds)
This team is rebuilding. They’re doing so because after years of cap shenanigans and kicking the can down the road, their defense is full of old, expensive players of yesteryear.
I am interested to see if Spencer Rattler, who looks like if someone tried to imagine Blake Griffin and Patrick Mahomes’ love child using half a fifth of vodka and a Play-Doh set, can find some success with new HC and offensive smart guy (“genius” is too strong) Kellen Moore. I’m holding onto my Rattler stock just in case the guy figures out how to play the position when facing pressure (ya… probably not).
I’m holding onto my Rattler stock just in case the guy figures out how to play the position when facing pressure (ya… probably not). But this team could be interesting offensively if either he or 2nd round rookie Tyler Shough can play even halfway decent.
Other than that, not really worth thinking about this year, unfortunately. The Saints are tanking for LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier. I think they’ll be wildly successful.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Saints -170 to finish 4th in the NFC South feels like stealing
New York Giants (6-11)
Projected Finishes: #26 Offense, #20 Defense
Win Total: 5.5 wins, Division: +1600, Super Bowl: +15000
The Giants are fun and interesting again and the NFL is better for it. Pretty much every league benefits from having aggressive NYC sports fans rooting for a good team.
Speaking of annoying, sorry, aggressive, NYC sports fans, here’s my friend Ross’ not quite serious take:
“Giants are winning the NFC East, as Jayden Daniels enters a massive Year 2 slump and the Eagles suffer through a Super Bowl high.
Abdul Carter Rookie of the Year. Abdul Carter Defensive Player of the Year.
Brian Daboll Comeback Player of the Year.
I can’t say more because I’m not tipping my hat before [our fantasy] draft, but just know, Giants are a THREAT”
- Ross R.
Good on you, Ross R! “Daboll Comeback Player of the Year” is quite good. Here’s a more serious take from my friend AJ:
“Russell Wilson lifts the floor for this team. Yes, Dart was electric, but he should not play one down the entire year.
The OL will be improved but still just average. Nabers is a beast though, and Abdul Carter is going to be DRoY and could be good enough to be All Pro.
6 wins, but they look competitive in most games and the team plays hard. Everyone keeps their jobs.”
- AJ M.
Straight. To the point. Realistic, but firm on the takes he believes in. You’re a beast, AJ, you’re a beast.
It seems like this Abdul Carter guy is going to be pretty good though - Nabers vs Carter jersey sales should be an interesting intracity battle for years to come - and the vibes seem generally good! I’m not sure that Russell “HustleBustle” Wilson has a full year starting in him, but regardless of whether it’s him or rookie QB Jaxson Dart back there, the QB play in NYC will be better than it has been in three years. Sad state of affairs I suppose.
Unfortunately for the Giants, their upside is capped from Week 1 on as, despite finishing 4th in their division last season, they somehow managed to get the most difficult schedule in the NFL this year. How that happens, nobody knows, but it’s the cards they’ve been dealt.
The team is going nowhere this year, but if Nabers can stay healthy, the OL gels even a little bit after a reshuffle, Abdul Carter makes an impact joining an already stellar DL, and Jaxson Dart shows the flashes he gave us in preseason, I do think HC Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen can keep their jobs for one more year.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Jaxson Dart comes in after a brutal Week 6 shellacking at the hands of the Eagles and plays the rest of the year, putting up a real fight and finishing 3rd in the ORotY race
New York Jets (6-11)
Projected Finishes: #31 Offense, #15 Defense
Win Total: 6.5 wins, Division: +1600, Super Bowl: +25000
Let me just get by for a second and oh what’s this
My goodness, is that JP T from last year? Well, what does he have to say?
“Based on the last 4 years, Justin Fields MIGHT be able to read a simple zone look by 2030.
I’ve watched the OSU highlights all summer - Justin to Garrett - and it really gets your Johnson Woody.
Then that genuinely horrifying 2024 film starts to play. The post-nut clarity starts to creep in, and after the 15th checkdown, you wish you hadn’t mucked up all those Kleenex, as now you need to cry.
#ReadyforTakeoff”
-JP T
Jesus, took a dark turn there, huh? Lot of penis talk on this one, and we’re like 20 teams away from the Falcons preview… oh well!
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
What do you want from me? I don’t know or particularly care about this Jets team. Braelon Allen leads the team in rushing, there ya go
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
Projected Finishes: #8 Offense, #7 Defense
Win Total: 11.5 wins, Division: -145, Super Bowl: +750
Oh look, it’s another contender with secondary questions! Now we could talk about the fact that for his fourth season in a row, Jalen Hurts is going to be getting his plays from a different OC. The third season didn’t seem to matter much, as the Eagles won the Super Bowl, but what will this year have in store!
I’m bored by the continued excellence and depth of this Eagles roster. It’s basically an inverted version of the Sixers, who bore me with their continued incompetence and unreliable superstars. Sorry Philly fans, needed to bring you down a peg.
The roster is legit, so the only questions are around health and whether this team will take its foot off the gas at all after winning it all last season.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
I don’t want to put this out there, but I really do feel like we’re forgetting that Saquon Barkley was notoriously injured all the time when he played for the Giants… I think, after a monster 400+ touch season last year, that injury bug comes back to bite him one more time, forcing the Eagles to throw the ball significantly more. AJ Brown overs seem like the move if he can stay healthy - perhaps Brown 10+ receiving TDs (+210) is of interest to you?
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)
Projected Finishes: #28 Offense, #2 Defense
Win Total: 8.5 wins, Division: +550, Super Bowl: +5500
What is it about these damn Pennsylvania teams and their boring excellence?!
Despite relying on Justin Fields and Russell Wilson last season, the Steelers went 10-7, Tomlin kept the “winning record” streak going (not sure if you’ve heard but…), and the Steelers were promptly bounced in the Wild Card Round.
History will probably repeat itself again, with the defense leading the way and the offense doing just enough in nine 2nd halves to get this team above .500. Or as my friend Brian says:
“Steelers D is the best defense in the league, hands down.”
- Brian B.
Make it 19, boys.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The Steelers finally go under .500 for the first time in 18 years… just kidding! Even if that was at risk, they’d probably tie their Week 18 game vs the Ravens just to finish 8-8-1
San Francisco 49ers (10-7)
Projected Finishes: #4 Offense, #25 Defense
Win Total: 10.5 wins, Division: +145, Super Bowl: +1700
Easiest schedule in the league; brutally tough division. Elite offense (when healthy); potentially really bad defense. The 2025 49ers are full of things pushing and pulling them in opposite directions.
My friend Aks thinks so too:
“We’re gonna think we’re going to win the Super Bowl, with Brock Purdy in the MVP race and Ricky Pearsall fighting for an OPotY. That is, until everyone gets injured again and I cry once more.
But until that happens, we’re gonna be insufferable again :)”
-Aks N.
Beautiful stuff Aks, beautiful stuff.
It really does all come down to health for the 49ers. They’re probably going to be bottom 10 in the league in Adjusted Minutes Lost to Injury because Levi’s is cursed and they’ve done so six of the last seven years… the question is where the injuries land this time around. Is it CMC getting injured, torpedoing this offense that’ll have to rely on Brian Robinson Jr to chug along for 3 yards a carry, or is it someplace else where the Niners have a bit more depth (not many options, as this team lost too many guys via free agency to list here)?
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
The defense being 25th in the league is pretty bold considering how much hype the return of DC Robert Saleh is getting, but let’s do a fantasy one: both Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings finish as top 25 PPR WRs as this team throws the ball early and often to their only real threats at the position (not a Brandon Aiyuk believer this season after he destroyed his knee in Week 7 last year)
Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
Projected Finishes: #18 Offense, #3 Defense
Win Total: 8.5 wins, Division: +550, Super Bowl: +6500
Speaking of them Seahawks, goddamn, I am such a big Mike Macdonald fan! It all comes from a place of love for the new coach that looks like Marco Rubio had sex with “Hide the pain Harold”
I reread that joke I wrote last in last year’s preview and thought it was good enough to run back a 2nd time. It’s just so spot on. Well done, 2024 Ryan.
I love this Seahawks team - initial versions of their record were north of 10 wins before I took a deep breath - and think they have as good a chance as any of their NFC West counterparts at winning the division. It’s absolutely ridiculous they’re priced at +550.
Ridiculous, but understandable after watching what Sam Darnold looked like those last two games last season behind a broken down OL. Most projections have this Seahawks OL as a bottom 5 unit in the league, and why wouldn’t they! This team added just a single new player to the line in rookie 1st rounder Grey Zabel, so why would we believe they’d be anything but the bottom 5 unit they were last year?
Well folks, that’s where new OC Klint Kubiak comes in, or as I wrote last week in my fantasy breakdown
Even luckier for the Seahawks, they don’t have Ryan Grubb as their OC anymore, aka they don’t have their OC forcing their QB to throw the ball at the 4th highest rate in the NFL behind a shaky OL, and they don’t have their OC trying to run man/duo concepts at the 7th highest rate in the league behind an OL (and TE room) that was absolutely not equipped to run that style of rushing attack.
Even luckierier for the Seahawks, they hired Klint Kubiak as their new OC, the man that turned the 2024 Saints into a 2-0 Super Bowl contender before we realized the Cowboys sucked and the Saints’ OL, WRs, and QB rooms all imploded and wrecked their season. Klint is smart: with 50% of his genetics from Super Bowl 50-winning HC Gary Kubiak, he’s studied under Kyle Shanahan and, IMO, did a great job with a terrible situation down in New Orleans last year. More important than all of that though, Kubiak ran man/duo at the 5th lowest rate last season.
…I have a ton of confidence that Klint is going to (1) design an effective run game for either/both of these talented RBs and (2) get the most out of the OL by playing to their strengths, namely focusing on outside zone runs that can take advantage of this group’s smaller, but quicker frames.
Those truths remain. I’m a believer in this OL, so long as they can avoid the injuries that have stunted their youth movement development the last two seasons; easier said than done.
The defense, needing a year to get used to Mike MacDonald’s complicated system, has a chance to be one the premiere defenses in the league, and I think they’ll take advantage. Offensively, if the OL does what I think they’ll do and give Darnold as much time as he had last season in Minnesota, he has plenty of weapons in the two RBs Kenneth Walker + Zach Charbonnet, yet to reach his full potential WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and newcomer rookie WR Tory Horton, aka one of the most productive WRs in the nation the last two years at Colorado State.
People are too quick to forget… this team won 10 games last year with a worse roster and a way worse OC!
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Seahawks to win the NFC West at +550 is a great bet at a great number, and Leonard Williams at 100/1 to win DPOY is something I’ve already invested in after he had his best season as a pro last year
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Projected Finishes: #10 Offense, #18 Defense
Win Total: 9.5 wins, Division: +105, Super Bowl: +2700
Let’s run through a litany of “good luck” stats that the Bucs used to squeak out 10 games last year:
#1 in Field Goal %;
Missed only one Field Goal in the 4Q / OT
#2 in Field Goal % Defense (75%);
Opponents only made 5/9 Field Goal attempts in the 4Q / OT
#7 in fumbles recovered;
Faced the 5th highest # of snaps vs backup QBs; and
Only 26th in EPA / play versus starting QBs
Last year, I had the following concern about the Bucs
Is Vegas of the belief that Baker’s 14% TD rate (2nd in the league), his 18.0 Yards per Attempt (3rd in the league), and his career highs in completion % and in passing yards, are all sustainable? They must not know that Baker would’ve been 22nd in YpA if you excluded all the dump-offs to RB Rachaad White, or that this year, the Bucs have to play the toughest schedule of defenses when it comes to preventing explosive passes, all without the OC that actually got this performance out of Baker… right?
Dead wrong.
Liam Coen came in and produced even better numbers with Baker than his predecessor, Dave Canales, did. The question is: we really banking on this happening for a third year in a row, now that OC Josh Grizzard is in charge after Liam Coen left to be the HC in JAX? I think, unfortunately, that my answer is yes. Sometimes it just takes a QB ~5 years to work out the kinks in his game and, although I don’t expect this to be the magical offensively juggernaut-y season the Bucs had last year, I do expect Baker to be the same very good QB he’s been the last two years.
But the luck that propelled them to 10-7 last year? Not banking on that, and I’m definitely not banking on the same overall good health they had last season, particularly knowing… well, they’re starting the year without their All Pro LT Tristan Wirfs. I’m not as concerned about the lack of WR Chris Godwin - recovering from a broken ankle - as rookie 1st round pick WR Emeka Egbuka, my 2nd favorite WR in this class, is ready to step into whatever role he’s needed in. But the OL and the running game? Definitely worried about a regression there after the Bucs were 6th in the league in EPA / rush.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Favorite NFC South bet on the board is the division exact finish to be Falcons-Bucs-Panthers-Saints (+650)
Tennessee Titans (8-9)
Projected Finishes: #21 Offense, #27 Defense
Win Total: 5.5 wins, Division: +700, Super Bowl: +22500
This is the one team where their projected finishes - 21st on offense, 27th on defense - just didn’t exactly translate when I had to start locking in wins and losses for all 18 weeks.
I don’t know what HC Brian Callahan + co did to earn my trust after the disaster that was last season, but I believe this Titans team has the goods to compete every week. Oh, I know what it was! It was probably the Titans having the worst QB play in the league with Will Levis and Mason Rudolph finding new creative ways to turn the ball over or just being bad every week, respectively. That and the fact that Callahan so very clearly hated both of his options at QB
Lot of this every Sunday. Also lots of special teams mistakes, as the worst special teams unit in the league last season (they fired their Special Team Coordinator). Also lots of money to be made fading the Titans last year, finishing a ludicrously impressive 2-15 ATS, an accomplishment in and of itself.
In comes maybe the most lackluster #1 overall pick I can remember in QB Cam Ward, a guy that had to be told by the coaching staff that they’re all very excited that he’s excited to get to work, but that he can’t be calling half the team up for 5am meetings every day before a full, long day of practice. Psycho leadership energy right there - love it! Mason Rudolph would never!
The offense is going to be much improved behind an offensive line that could finish the year as one of the best young units in the league. RB Tony Pollard doesn’t get much respect despite being an incredibly effective runner of the football, post-recovery from breaking his leg while in Dallas. And I dig the pass catching weapons too, with Calvin Ridley somehow putting up 1,017 yards last season with those two QBs, TE Chig Okonkwo + rookie TE Gunner Helm ready to break out, and rookie WR Elic Ayomanor looking like a stud in training camp.
I’m believe in Cam Ward and despite being 100% ready to get absolutely fucked by the sneaking reality that Brian Callahan is a bad coach, I’m in on this Titans team.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
One unit on each of over 6.5 wins (+125) and over 7.5 wins (+210) with 0.5u on exact division finish being Texans-Titans-Jags-Colts (+1500)
Washington Commies (9-8)
Projected Finishes: #9 Offense, #24 Defense
Win Total: 9.5 wins, Division: +220, Super Bowl: +2000
Welp, I was wrong about the Commanders last year… had them at 6 wins and they won 12. Nice job fellas.
But I’m fading them again this year. It’s really simple:
They’re missing their best OL in RG Sam Cosmi;
They’re running back the short term deals for long in the tooth veterans plan that they scraped by on defense with last season, good for the oldest defense in the league this year; and
I still don’t trust Jayden Daniels to stay healthy with the amount that he scrambles with such a slight frame
I’m sticking with my call from last year
I don’t wish this upon the guy because I do think he has a chance to be special when he’s out there, but I just have a sinking feeling that at some point over his first three years in the league, Jayden Daniels is going to take a hit that’s going to end his season prematurely. I hope I’m wrong!
If I’m right (and why wouldn’t I be?!), Daniels has a 50% chance to suffer that injury this season #quickmaths
You expected more from me here, didn’t you? That’s alright. We’re currently at 15,000 words.
Bold Prediction / Best Bet:
Read above, think calling for an injury like I did is enough. After all, I’m good at this shit