2024 NFL Draft Breakdown
A mock draft and my top offensive players in the 2024 NFL Draft
My first foray into an NFL Draft breakdown, below you’ll find my mock draft (done April 24 ~3pm), and my top 5 - 10 guys for each offensive position with their peak and a comp. My eye still isn’t good enough to get a handle on defense, but is decent enough to give some informed takes about offensive players. All stats courtesy of PFF, Reception Perception, NGS, and SIS.
Round 1 Mock Draft
Quarterbacks
1. Caleb Williams (USC)
Top 3 QB, Aaron Rodgers with (somehow) a less contentious personality
You don’t need me to tell you that this guy is great - he won the Heisman after all and every QB that wins the Heisman totally rules in the NFL - but goddamn is this guy special. He’s not Mahomes, but he’s the only prospect the last few years that can claim to have the same kind of creativity when turning chaos into a chance for a big play.
He has his issues with avoiding sacks when pressured and has a bit of a fumble problem in that same situation, but really the only thing I see derailing him is himself or his camp. Otherwise he’s a generational prospect and the best one since Andrew Luck.
2. Drake Maye (North Carolina)
Top 7 QB, ideally Josh Allen, but more likely Carson Palmer with mobility
Drake Maye screams bust. “Ya sure, let’s use a top 3 pick on the guy with shaky footwork and a weird throwing motion that came from the same college as NFL standouts Mitch Trubisky and Sam Howell! Oh and the best part? He’s white and athletic!”
Since comparing Maye to Justin Herbert was the hot, lazy comparison a few months ago, I thought it’d be interesting to compare The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s writeups on the two. We all know - if you don’t know you can leave - that both Herbert and Maye have absolute cannons and showed some elite playmaking outside the pocket, but how do their weaknesses in college compare?
On Herbert:
Plays with reckless tendencies and still learning the throws he should and shouldn’t make … generally, his accuracy is above average, but his arm gets juiced up and he will miss some layups … needs to reel back some bad habits in the pocket like excessive bouncing on his feet or fading away from throws … needs to take better care of the football and is guilty of panic decisions as he is being sacked, turning a bad play into a catastrophic play …
And on Maye:
Gets a deer-in-the-headlights look when the play breaks down…doesn’t see the entire field and late to locate coverage…routinely leads defenders to his throwing lanes, staring down targets…messy footwork with the bad habit of falling off throws…more of a “see it” passer instead of consistently anticipating, which leads to late throws and mistakes…
Oh sorry, I got those two mixed up! How foolish and unexpected of me… Let me switch and correct those:
On Herbert:
Gets a deer-in-the-headlights look when the play breaks down…doesn’t see the entire field and late to locate coverage…routinely leads defenders to his throwing lanes, staring down targets…messy footwork with the bad habit of falling off throws…more of a “see it” passer instead of consistently anticipating, which leads to late throws and mistakes…
And on Maye:
Plays with reckless tendencies and still learning the throws he should and shouldn’t make … generally, his accuracy is above average, but his arm gets juiced up and he will miss some layups … needs to reel back some bad habits in the pocket like excessive bouncing on his feet or fading away from throws … needs to take better care of the football and is guilty of panic decisions as he is being sacked, turning a bad play into a catastrophic play …
There are two easy things to note here: (1) That mixup was intentional and (2) there are only so many ways you can write about a guy with a bazooka arm getting a little wonky in the pocket. But the weaknesses are quite similar, both hinting at some fundamental issues that really should terrify you as a GM. The parallels extended to excuses too, with both QBs dealing with shit play calling and a lackluster, some would say “shit”, collection of receivers to throw to their final year in college. I certainly think Herbert showed more to believe in and less to worry about at Oregon, but the Herbert-Maye comparison isn’t as crazy or lazy as it may seem.
I’m still terrified of the (very lazy, as they’re nothing alike as players) parallels to when Sam Howell parlayed a projected “way too early mock draft” top 10 pick into a 5th round selection two years ago - elite Sophomore years, but oh no, they lost all their weapons and had a tough Junior year! - but when Maye makes throws like this and this and makes plays like this? Pretty easy to put those concerns in a little box (I can open up later if he fails) and buy into the possibilities.
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3. JJ McCarthy (Michigan)
Top 15 QB, the lovechild of Brock Purdy + Alex Smith after splitting a fifth of White Mischief vodka
My initial reaction after watching JJ McCarthy help bring Michigan a national title: “I can’t wait to see which GM wants to get fired by drafting JJ top 10”
My second reaction after watching JJ tape the last month: “Thank god for power football because Jesus Christ, our receivers were bad. Also this guy seems kinda perfect for a Shanahan disciple’s offense”
Which brings us to our last reaction before the draft…
JJ McCarthy very well may be a bust and even before that, may just be another sacrifice of teams trying to work each other to get results like “Will Levis -200 to go pick #2” was last year 24 hours before draft day. JJ has a lot of things you can harp on:
His accuracy was shaky at times, missing high on intermediate routes and throwing shorter routes (e.g. RB swing passes) into the turf;
Inconsistent touch, particularly when targeting the sidelines;
Threw a bunch of “ITSHs” in 2024, aka Interceptions That Should’ve Happened, pronounced “itches”, a phrase from the great Gill Alexander;
Although elite when rolling out to the right, in the rare instances he was forced left, JJ was bad at throwing the football; and
Despite making drastic improvements from 2022 to 2023, JJ still isn’t the best processor past his first two reads and has by far the fewest # of dropbacks among the top prospects this year
Obviously the team did well despite these issues, but in the NFL, every one of these issues will be exploited on a weekly basis. So you may be asking yourself, “Why the fuck is he #3 ahead of Jayden Daniels?” A lot of it is just my Daniels hate (it’s just below if optimism isn’t your thing), but JJ does do some things very well:
He’s the youngest of the top 7 QB prospects in this class, turning 22 right after his rookie year. Is that “doing something well”? Is age just a number? What does it mean if my back feels 27 but looks like a 56 year old naked Armenian man walking around without a towel on at the gym?;
JJ’s a pretty good athlete - 6th best 3 cone at the combine among all positions - and is tough as shit, both inside and out of the pocket;
He loves making tight window throws and is particularly good at it in between the hashes vs zone. Give him a Shanahan branch OC and he’ll find his home;
McCarthy is damn good in the pocket considering his lack of experience. The Michigan O-line did most of the work, but his Pressure to Sack rate (P2S) was only behind Penix + Nix (you can read below to see why that basically means he’s #1 or #2 in this class); and
McCarthy seems like a winning player and he’s gotten considerably better every year. Look at this quote from an NFL scout, “Before he signed, he was telling other Michigan recruits that if they wanted to party and chase girls, go somewhere else. His class was going to be the one that restored Michigan. To have that mentality and then actually go achieve it? He's different." JJ is just another example of a guy that would be pressured into therapy in an office job, but is a “winner” because he can throw the ball good
So that’s 5 pros and 5 cons, aka he seems like a guy that should be a 2nd round pick, maybe a late 1st rounder. So why is he #3 for me? Well despite my initial reaction, I did go to Michigan and didn’t need much evidence to get off my initial “fireable top 10 pick” position. More importantly, I hate Daniels (it’s right here ⤵️) and think JJ has enough of a work ethic to turn into the kind of QB that self-preserving GMs absolute love: not good enough to get you to the Super Bowl, but good enough to make the playoffs most years and critically, good enough to help you keep your job when half of the other 2024 QB prospects suck.
4. Jayden Daniels (LSU)
Top 25 QB, an athletic Jared Goff that’s paradoxically held back by his rushing ability when pressured
All of the numbers say this guy should be a no doubt top 3 pick and an absolute terror for DCs at the next level. Last year Daniels had the: #2 PFF grade, #1 Big Time Throw rate, #3 Turnover-Worthy Play rate, and #5 Adjusted Completion %. Just an insane collection of stats, the kind of top of the table domination we haven’t seen since Joe Burrow’s magical 2019 at LSU (#1, #3, #2, #2).
However, there is one stat that isn’t so good - something I’m sure you’ve heard all about - and that’s Jayden’s Pressure to Sack (P2S) rate of 20.2%. It’s particularly of concern when you consider that Daniels was working behind five guys that are all expected to be NFL draft picks over the next 12 months, two of which are tackles that are mocked to go in the top half of next year's 1st round. Of course the easy counter to that is to just look at Joe Burrow’s P2S from 2019 and would you look at that: it’s 20.0%! Burrow had Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase - Jesus Christ it’s always shocking to see that - while Daniels had Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., two likely top 20 picks in this year’s draft. Why wouldn’t you wait for the big play downfield with those duos at WR?
Watch the tape though and these numbers reveal their true colors. Burrow was / is happy to take a sack for a chance at a big play (particularly on 3rd and long), all while keeping his eyes down the field to maximize that chance. Daniels is the opposite. The second he starts to feel pressure, his instinct is not to buy some time for a shot down field, but to drop his eyes, bail out of the pocket, and try to run his way into a big play (and big hit). I don’t trust a 6’4, 210lb 5th year starter to change that instinct despite every number telling me this guy is elite at throwing the football. And one more thing… Daniels refuses to throw to the middle of the field, something you kinda need to do in the 2024 NFL the Chiefs delivered to us. That may just be the nature of the LSU offense, but it is a continuation of a trend that started at Arizona State five long years ago.
I’ve prepared a spot for this take to go into the “Ryan Steinberg’s Shittiest Takes” HoF, but give me the upside of a reckless gunslinger like Maye or the “Play-Action or Bust” simplicity of JJ before I sign up for Mr. Daniels.
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5. Spencer Rattler (South Carolina)
Top 25 QB, Seattle Geno Smith if he hits (with a splash of Baker Mayfield) or Jets Geno Smith if he doesn’t (with a splash of… Baker Mayfield)
This guy was a no doubt 1st round pick after his redshirt freshman year at Oklahoma in 2020. Then the #1 QB above took his job, Rattler bailed, and found himself at South Carolina for his Junior and Senior years. There he had the pleasure of playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the Power 5, getting to enjoy protection like this 60 seconds of awfulness every Saturday, as he tried and failed to throw to his one good receiver in Xavier Legette.
With all that in mind, it’s no surprise you get this Spanish flag-inspired RP success rate heatmap:
YIKES. Put him in the 80% failure rate group, Ryan! Don’t be an idiot!
Unfortunately, if you’ve read this far you know I’m still an idiot and, for some incurable reason, have some faith in the guy, clinging onto the hope of that one green spot of middle intermediate throws he produced in an NFL-style offense with no help the past year. Even if he has to play behind a dogshit NFL offensive line with a barren WR room, he’ll be thrilled by the improvement compared to SC last year.
The 80% Failure Rate QBs: Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix
This (and the corresponding RB / WR) section is where I’ll put guys I am 80% confident will fail in the NFL, but if they find their way to an ideal situation, the may find a way to prove me wrong and succeed as a pro.
Michael Penix (Washington) looks great when he’s comfy in the pocket and surrounded by three NFL receivers and the best offensive line in the nation. Nobody throws with better touch in this class. If you watched the National Title game that Michigan easily won though - have I mentioned that game? - you saw what happens when he faces an NFL-style defense and pressure all game. Maybe he’ll land with an elite offensive line and 2-3 awesome WRs, but it’s very unlikely. Also, he’s old and has had multiple ACL tears!
As for Bo Nix (Oregon), the Ducks’ offense, one again buoyed by an elite offensive line and some damn good weapons, ran on the dink and dunk, screen-game-all-game, YAC bullshit that can get you 4,500 passing yards in college, but might get you 4.5 1st downs a game in the NFL. It’s no surprise he was the most accurate QB last year, but a 5th year senior that has only shown success running that? No thanks!
Running Backs
While I have you here at the top of the RBs, a brief rant…
I think the hatred of this RB class is ridiculous. Sure, there’s not some stud 1st rounder that everyone’s losing their minds over, but there probably shouldn’t be any 1st round running backs taken in the year of our lord 2024. Similar to my assessment of the WR class detailed below, I think there are three incredible, versatile, high upside backs alone at the top, with a ton of depth behind them, bringing a variety of skill sets to match team-needs.
1. Jaylen Wright (Tennessee)
Top 5 RB, Slightly faster, less shifty Alvin Kamara
Like his Volunteer comrade, Jaylen Wright has the rare combination of big play explosiveness, excellent hands, and good pass blocking, all while being an absolute pain in the ass to bring down. I really love the Kamara comp after watching the tape, but their final year stats at Tennessee also reflect the similarities.
Kamara is obviously a lofty comp as he’s one of the most efficient RBs in NFL history on a per touch basis, but Jaylen has all the skills and underlying numbers to hit the same lofty heights. I will be reaching for him in my fantasy drafts. Unless of course if he gets drafted by the Cowboys, as then his 3rd round ADP is going to scare me off for sure. ZLFF guys: are you still reading?!
2. Jonathan Brooks (Texas)
Top 12 RB, Javonte Williams without a torn PCL
The Texas backfield has been absolutely loaded the last three years, with Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johnson, and now Jonathan Brooks all helping this storied program go 25-14 to close out their time in the Big 12. What a magical finish to a 30 year run! I think Brooks will find himself performing somewhere between his Texas predecessors - not as good as Bijan (particularly in the passing game), but a better all-around back than Roschon has shown so far.
3. Trey Benson (Florida State)
Top 12 RB, Isiah Pacheco after two weeks of anger management + yoga classes
There’s a very, very good chance Benson is the best back in this class, if only because his elite pass blocking ability should give him plenty of opportunity to stay on the field for all three downs. He’s fast (4.39, 3rd best RB), has great vision, incredibly loose hips, and similar to his comp Pacheco, is so much fun to watch due to an excess of violence in his running style.
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4. Bucky Irving (Oregon)
Top 30 RB, Darren Sproles with a bit more pop in between the tackles
Excellent pass catcher that will find a role in the league just on that skill alone. Anything else is just a cherry on top.
5. Blake Corum (Michigan)
Top 30 RB, Kyren Williams with a degree from an elite university
He’s undersized and took an absolute beating the last two years at Michigan, totalling a whopping 505 carries. But he’s tough as shit, always gets 1-2 more yards than you’d expect from a guy with his build, and has a nose for the end zone despite his size. He’s short, he’s small, and his yards per carry isn’t particularly good (5.3 YpC), but Harbaugh was more than happy to run him into the line for 1 yard, sacrificing efficiency just to wear down the opponent. I am really worried about how much of his success came from Michigan’s award winning O-line, but I want to believe!
The 80% Failure Rate RBs: Every Other RB
It’s 2024 in the NFL… Bijan Robinson has been a failure thus far and we all know he has the tools to be a Hall of Famer. Every single one of the guys above could fall into this category too with the wrong organization, offensive line, or coach, but I had to get my Top 5 down somewhere, right?
It’s tough to even know what a “failure” would be nowadays. Is a 1st round RB that was a team’s lead back for two years with good efficiency and 1200 all purpose yards / year a “failure” if he gets thrown aside for cheaper RB in year 3? None of these guys are going in the 1st round or even 2nd round, so it seems pretty hard to call a 3rd round or 4th round RB a failure or bad based on their expected value there.
With that diatribe finished, I do think a few guys not named above could be awesome, namely:
MarShawn Lloyd (USC) - Lloyd is at real risk of only playing spot downs due to his ridiculously bad pass blocking and high fumble rates, but there’s something about him that still intrigues
Isaiah Davis (South Dakota State)- not sure what to do with his level of competition, but all the fundamentals are there for a good back
Braelan Allen (Wisconsin) - great size, hard to bring down, and still super young, but missed expectations at Wisconsin
Audric Estime (Notre Dame) - great quickness for a bowling ball back, but serious speed concerns
Ray Davis (Kentucky) - another excellent receiver out of the backfield that can’t pass protect
Wide Receivers
1. Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio)
Top 3 WR, AJ Green with a dash of Larry Fitzgerald’s late-career volume hogging
Hopefully you don’t need me to explain this one, but if you weren’t all in on B1G football this year and have 15 minutes (at 1x speed), watch Thinking Football lose his mind over Harrison’s route running. Or if not, this is a nice summary of how dominant MHJ was this year, regardless of coverage or matchup:
According to Reception Perception’s database, Marvin Harrison is the only college receiver over the last 11 years to have a 70%+ success rate when doubled on at least 8.5% of his routes. And MHJ put up that 70% success rate while being doubled on 16.8% (!!) of his routes, the highest double team rate in the RP database. Oh and he did all this with a QB that got run out of town for being bad and losing the Michigan game. He’s gonna be great, and great from day 1.
2. Rome Odunze (Washington)
Top 5 WR, 60% Mike Evans + 40% Davante Adams
I love Rome and even though MHJ is a better prospect, it’s damn close. As long as Rome eventually finds himself with a halfway decent QB - I’m looking at you, Giants! - he’s going to be a 1,000 yard receiver for many years to come. Look at this success chart and compare it to MHJ’s above
Just absurd. The guy can dominate from any position on the field, with the speed to beat single coverage as a flanker, the size + strength to get through press as an X, and the shiftiness to destroy whatever tiny slot corner you want to throw at him inside.
I mean look at this ridiculous RP success chart
He’s a no doubt #1 WR in my mind and it’s ludicrous that Nabers (his writeup… coming soon!) is favored to go ahead of him.
3. Malik Nabers (LSU)
Top 15 WR, when he succeeds: Garrett Wilson at 1.1x speed and when he fails: Tyreek Hill vs the Chiefs in the 2024 Divisional Round
I’m a little lower on the guy than consensus, but still think he’s going to be an absolute stud in the NFL. He’s so explosive, so fast, and like the two comps above, will absolutely burn you if you try to play him 1:1 without help over the top. Dominant when targeted in the middle of the field, Nabers is a lock to have multiple 40+ YAC plays his rookie year.
But I do have concerns:
The talent concerns I named above for Jayden Daniels also apply here, as Nabers was playing alongside an excellent WR2 in Brian Thomas Jr., receiving passes from an elusive QB that had a lot of time to throw behind an elite O-line, aka a lot of time for Nabers to torch some poor SEC corner in a scramble drill; and
His underwhelming success vs press coverage is indicative of a couple issues: Nabers isn’t the best route runner right now and doesn’t have the moves (e.g. headfakes, hand fighting) needed to fool good corners at the line
Here are two clips from LSU vs Florida State this year. The first is Nabers vs Renardo Green, currently projected as a 3rd round draft pick and PFF’s 4th best man coverage corner in 2023
And here’s Nabers vs Azareye'h Thomas, who might be Day 3 selection in next year’s draft
I have a hard time seeing a world where Nabers isn’t a Top 20 WR on the basis of his explosiveness alone. But he’s going to need to do some real work on his route running, initial separation tricks, and vs press to unlock his full potential as not just a slot guy. It’s a similar story as Ja’Marr Chase, a guy who also dominated in the slot at LSU and was stuck there his 2021 rookie year, with 89% of his receptions coming from the slot. Hopefully not too similar though because this writeup will be very wrong if Nabers evolves as profoundly as Chase has his first few years.
I would also be very concerned if he’s the only real weapon on the team (e.g. if the Giants draft him (sorry Giants fans for the second stray (but your shit franchise kinda deserves it)), giving opposing DCs the ability to throw their most physical corner at him with help up top, daring the rest of the team to do something. That’s not something every defense in the NFL has in their bag, but I can easily see Nabers, despite having an electric rookie year, throwing out a few stinkers. And if one of those happen during the final weeks of the fantasy season, it could put a real damper on Naber’s perceived ability due to the whining of the unsophisticated football community I’m proudly, graciously, even, a part of.
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4. Adonai Mitchell (Texas)
Top 20 WR, somewhere between Titans AJ Brown and Gabe Davis in every non-2022 Divisional Round game
If Jayden Daniels has every bit of analytics screaming for me to love him, AD Mitchell is the opposite, with all of his advanced numbers saying “STAY THE FUCK AWAY”. But his QB was god awful this year, rarely throwing with accuracy and rarely getting past his 2nd read. The big knock on Mitchell’s film is that he egregiously took plays off, but with a QB like that, it’s hard to get jazzed up to run a route when you have the utmost confidence you’re not getting the ball as the 3rd read. Physical talent is all there for him to be an absolute monster outside. Let’s see if he has the work ethic and desire to get there.
5. Ricky Pearsall (Florida)
Top 30 WR, don’t say Julian Edelman don’t say Julian Edelman don’t say Julian Edelman
The best route runner in this class, he’s a gritty, hard working, smart player that’s shockingly athletic. Love this guy if he can find his way to a team with an accurate QB.
Note: I love writing these breakdowns, but I ain’t doing paragraphs for each of these other WRs when we’re already pushing 4,000 words. Enjoy the comps and the free ammo to blast me with when these guys fail or thrive.
6. Jermaine Burton (Alabama)
Top 30 WR, Doug Baldwin with a tiny hit, sorry, bit of Zay Flowers
7. Xavier Legette (South Carolina)
Top 40 WR, the full range of what Kadarius Toney was, is, and could be
8. Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU)
Top 40 WR, Martavis Bryant with (hopefully) a dash of DHop
9. Javon Baker (UCF)
Top 50 WR, Kendrick Bourne except people actually respect how good he is
10. Malik Washington (Virginia)
Top 50 WR, if he hits: a slightly thicker, less shifty Tank Dell + if he doesn’t: a guy that has no business being a good NFL WR at only 5’8, 195lbs
The 80% Failure Rate WRs: Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman, Jalen McMillan, Ladd McConkey
A collection of guys that are too small / injury-prone and Keon Coleman, a jump ball artist with terrible metrics across the board. On the right team and situation, any one of these guys could find that 20% and succeed in the league (or your fantasy league… looking at you Keon, a future “not a good receiver but somehow scored 10 TDs this year” fantasy WR2), but legit concerns hold me back from believing in them today. I’ve already put money on Xavier Worthy to the Chiefs and Ladd McConkey to the Texans, so preparing for the worst there.
Tight Ends
I know what good blocking looks like and what good route running looks like, but I definitely don’t know what they like look combined in a body of a TE. So here’s another lazy section with just their highest positional ranking (F = off the line, catching passes, Y = in line, lots of blocking) and comp.
1. Brock Bowers (Georgia)
Top 3 (F) TE, a YAC-supercharged 2023 Weeks 13 - 18 Evan Engram
2. Jaheim Bell (Florida State)
Top 10 (F) TE, a significantly less physical Sam LaPorta
3. Ja'Tavion Sanders (Texas)
Top 15 TE, Isaiah Likely except maybe he will get to see the field consistently
4. AJ Barner (Michigan)
Top 3 (Y) TE, Brock Wright without all that Catholic shit
5. Ben Sinnott (Kansas State)
Top 30 TE, I have no idea but taking suggestions
Offensive Line
We’re reaching the end of the line here - not a pun, I swear - and there’s just no way in hell I’m capable of player-comping offensive lineman, yet alone giving you a detailed writeup for 5 - 10 guys. So here’s just the pure rankings:
1. Joe Alt (Notre Dame)
2. Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon)
3. Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)
4. Troy Fautanu (Washington)
5. JC Latham (Alabama)
6. Amarius Mims (Georgia)
7. Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)
8. Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State)
Okay, I have to say something about Olu here. The guy was a phenomenal pass blocker at Penn State, but I have some serious concerns: (1) he was not a very good run blocker which relates to; (2) despite being part of the almost legendary Penn State strength and conditioning program, Olu got worked fairly consistently by big ends bull rushing him as; (3) he needs some serious work on his hands / pad level. I get he’s the youngest lineman in the top of the draft, has an incredible combo of size and agility, and that concern #3 is what the NFL coaches are for, but they’re still way bigger issues than you’d expect from a potential top 20 pick. Alright that’s it for me ✌️